In my The Agenda piece on Sunday, February 18, 2024, titled ‘JLP for the win’, I said: “The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) will win the 17th local government elections since universal adult suffrage in 1944, which will be held on February 26, 2024.” I have been proved right.

I also said: “I have completed my weekend visits into key parishes. Last week a generous person pushed some very revealing scientific poll findings under my door. Based on the combination of those poll findings, my observations, and the clear message, momentum, and more money of the JLP, as I see it, I am forecasting a JLP victory resembling November 28, 2016.” I have also been proved right.

The official count by the Electoral Office of Jamaica (EOJ) says the Jamaica Labour Party, (JLP) has won 7 municipal corporations, formerly parish councils, and the People’s National Party (PNP) has won 5. The November 28, 2016, local government election resulted in an 8/4 split in favour of the JLP. The JLP in the 2016 poll also won the very coveted Kingston and St Andrew Municipal Corporation (KSAMC). In the official count last week there was a tie, which favours the PNP.

Political bacon saved?

Opposition leader and PNP President Mark Golding can now breathe much easier, but only for a while, I believe. Recall that in my column titled ‘Substance over empty rhetoric’, on Sunday, July 1, 2023, I said among other things: “To keen observers of local politics it is obvious that Golding is fighting for his political life. He knows that if he does not get a win in a consequential election, or at least manages a very respectable draw in the next national election, his political goose is cooked.” In subsequent pieces, I reiterated and expanded on this important point.

I believe Golding, by virtue of achieving a “respectable draw”, meaning his party has emerged stronger than it went into the election, has effectively saved his political bacon — but only for a while.

Recall in a previous piece I noted that the dependable Black-bellied Plovers, Bananaquits and the John Chewits had warbled that Phillip Paulwell, Opposition spokesperson on mining and energy and Member of Parliament (MP) for the constituency of Kingston Eastern and Port Royal; Mikael Phillips, spokesperson on transport and MP for Manchester North Western; Senator Damion Crawford, spokesperson on education; Julian Robinson, MP for St Andrew South Eastern and spokesperson on finance; Lisa Hanna, former spokesperson on foreign affairs and foreign trade and MP for St Ann South Eastern, plus a dark horse, all harboured ambitions of displacing Golding from his shaky political perch at 89 Old Hope Road. I don’t think these six have abandoned their ambitions.

Last Monday, Golding succeeded in fortifying the shaky branch on which he sits. He now has the internal political muscle to ward off those who are hankering to push him off, but only for a while, I believe. Those who are shouting that Golding effectively won last Monday’s poll by virtue of winning the popular vote, the prized KSAMC, and the parish council of St Mary, are living in la-la land.

Those who thrive on obfuscations and deflections need to understand that our system is based on the first past the post principle and practice. The JLP came across the finish line, first, in more parish council races than the PNP. That is the critical metric which decides who wins. It is that simple. Golding has still not won a consequential election; this after nearly three years of criss-crossing the highways and byways of Jamaica.

Just over two years ago I said here that I believed Golding, like his predecessor Dr Peter Phillips, would not become prime minister of Jamaica. I still hold that position. Our next general election, our 19th, is due in 2025. The PNP continues to make seven critical mistakes. Those blunders have kept it in Opposition since 2016. I previously discussed five of those errors here. I don’t believe 89 Old Hope Road will change their faulty trajectory. Socialist parties are committed to a backward and ironclad template which has caused them to fail globally. I think the PNP is trapped in this cruel web.

Be that as it may, Golding’s respectable draw is a significant fillip for him and the PNP. Golding has done enough to save him bacon for now, I believe. As a consequence of his “respectable draw”, Golding has secured partial repairs to humpty-dumpty, it seems. The JLP has doubtless taken note of these incomplete but very significant repairs to the still rickety foundation of the PNP. As a consequence of the performance of his party last Monday, Golding has injected some critical political adrenaline into its veins. Most if not all the feuding factions within the PNP will now have to fall in line and follow their leader, but for a while, I believe.

Golding’s respectable draw will help him to steady the wayward ship that is the PNP. It has been drifting badly for the last 13 years. Recall, for example, that the last five leadership contests in the PNP were brutal.

Doubtless, Golding smells political blood. It does not take a degree in political science to figure that. I said in this space long ago that incessant attempts to prick political blood, specifically from Prime Minister Andrew Holness, and key members of his Administration, in general, by Mark Golding, have failed miserably. I previously provided copious evidence to support that point. I don’t believe the PNP understands that pricking political blood is not always a sensible strategy.

They will continue along this route, and will get the same result, I believe.

Statesmanship matters

Last Monday night, Golding in his ‘victory’ speech got a glorious opportunity to present himself as a statesman. He did not.

I believe Golding’s principal focus was encapsulated in this excerpt. Said Golding: “The people want to see a PNP Government. And the people want to see I-Man, Mark Jefferson Golding, in Jamaica House doing the work of the people; clean heart and clean hands.

“So Comrades we can go forward with confidence. We have pulled off a great victory today. The people have spoken. The PNP is alive and well and strong. I want to dedicate this victory to Sister P, Mama P, on the anniversary of her ascension to the helm of the PNP in 2006.”

What is not statesman-like in this some will ask? Golding’s victory speech was devoid of magnanimity towards his opponents. It is rudimentary that at the end of a political contest, especially a very competitive one, there is a generous acknowledgement of those who did not vote for you and your opponents. In an instance in which a national race was super-competitive, it is politics 101 to focus on national unity and humility. As I see it, Golding seems to have a problem with demonstrating political humility. This is a harbinger.

Consider this: “Asked whether he considered the possibility that his party could lose, Golding insisted: ‘No, that’s not on the cards. We’re moving forward, you’re talking to the next prime minister of Jamaica.’ (
RJR News, February 26, 2024)

Was Golding channelling his predecessors Dr Peter Phillips and former Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller? Recall the egregious political faux pas by Dr Phillips, who told a
Television Jamaica reporter that the constituency of Portland Eastern was a PNP seat and the PNP could and would not lose it. They did. Recall also Simpson Miller quipped, “Do I look like a loser?” when asked if the PNP could lose the general election of February 2016. She did.

“Jamaica ah PNP country.” The PNP has not divorced itself of this political affliction. We who are discerning have a duty to hold up this red flag to all. We have a duty to warn. Political, economic and social entitlements are triplets. They are all similarly dangerous and should be democratically resisted.

Contrast Golding’s victory speech with the generosity of spirit and focus on national unity of Prime Minister Andrew Holness in these excerpts. Said Holness: “There are issues that came up during the campaign which the Government has been seized of and recognises, and the people in their wisdom have found a way to communicate these issues through the ballot to the Government…

“These are not issues that originated with the JLP. These have been long-standing issues that the people of Jamaica have been suffering. What we note is that people’s expectations have risen,” Holness said.

“…But as you know with these elections, as it was in 2016, they go through recounts, and where there are very close margins there is the potential for change. So right now, the most definitive results that we can say is that the Jamaica Labour Party holds seven municipal corporations, which is the majority of the corporations,” he said.

“…I congratulate all the councillors who have won, both in the JLP and the PNP. I want to thank the voters who participated in the election. As I said earlier, this is a victory for Jamaica and democracy. It shows that our institutions are strong. I thoroughly enjoyed the campaigned.”

No matter how some try to minimise the JLP’s legitimate victory, they cannot. They cannot nullify either the reality that, after nearly three years of criss-crossing the country, the PNP failed to impress sufficient numbers of the electorate that it had new and/or better ideas that would benefit our pockets and dinner tables. Golding and his team spent the lion’s share of their time desperately trying to resurrect political ghosts from the 70s. They failed.

I have been saying in this space for many months that we now have a critical mass that is not fooled by empty sloganeering, fake news and fluff. Repeatedly telling folks that “the word is love” will not fool this critical mass. In my
The Agenda piece two Sundays ago I said: “[T]he local government elections would be decided by uncommitted voters in marginal divisions.” I think that indeed happened.

Victory with caveats

I believe the mentioned critical mass has given the incumbent victory, but with caveats. Prime Minister Holness said on the campaign trail that, going forward, there will be increased concentration by his Administration so as to ensure that our impressive macro-economic achievements are better felt at the micro levels. I have been saying in this space for many months that if people are not seeing the results of the improved economy in their pockets and on their dinner tables then all will come to naught.

As I see it, folks have to feel the benefits of the improved economy before they will believe it is working for them and/or with them. This does not mean a suicidal return to the 1970s — re-distribution minus production, and/or relationship to the resources of the country as some power-hungry individuals among us have been preaching. To me, it means, among other things, further income tax relief, much more efficient services from government offices, additional provision of basic services such as garbage collection; potable water; improved transportation; greater responsiveness of critical State agents, like the security forces, the fire services, health sector; a greater demonstration of respect for the work and worth of the ordinary citizen; and I could go on.

The prime minister’s victory speech last Monday says he gets it. I am optimistic that the necessary set of actions will be quickly set in train to ensure that many more Jamaicans experience increased benefits of steady inflation, a stable dollar, readily available foreign exchange, lower debt, lower taxes, and the regaining of regional and international respect by Jamaica which was once ignominiously labelled as the ‘poor man of the Caribbean’.

A warning: Consistent with the channelling of predecessors Golding and his team will unleash several political and related nightmares on the Administration over the coming days, I believe. They will fail to achieve their objectives. More anon!