Every year breathes its own level of fear, anxiety, hopes, and expectations, but 2025 seems to be gearing up to be a most interesting and impactful year. I will speak to some of the geopolitical realities later, but for us in Jamaica, perhaps the most impactful event is the general election that will be held by September 2025.

Even if the present Government stretches the election to the last moment, the entire country will be engulfed in the trauma of politicking. It is only in the first quarter, when the country will dutifully have to be preoccupied with budgetary matters, that anything really meaningful will be done.

Our political leaders on both sides of the divide would be well advised to spare us the promises of the new heaven and new Earth that Jamaica will become. We have seen their modus operandi over the years and have got a good sense of what they can and cannot deliver. The electorate must be wary of those who come bearing gifts which are only intended to ensnare the unsuspecting and the naïve in their schemes to gain political power.

This was the case with the recently concluded presidential election in America. Many of the ensnared are now having regrets, even before the new Administration takes office. Voters must not settle for a belittling of their intelligence, but properly appraise each politician as if he or she is applying for a job, which, in fact, they are doing. As employers, which the voters are, they must carefully vet those who come before them and not allow themselves to be lured by pretty talk.

As Paul admonished the Christians at Ephesus, we must walk circumspectly for the days are evil. Despite our best attempts at crime fighting with an improved security force capability, heinous and horrific murders continue. The latest killing to shock the conscience of the nation was the barbaric slaying of the consummate and intrepid Gleaner court reporter Barbara Gayle.

The economy is at an inflection point and we have to truly move to the economic growth that has long eluded us. There are many impediments to productivity that must be overcome. The fabric of the society is being severely torn by a transvaluation of values which no longer respect the intrinsic value of human life. Many of our young are being transformed into social monsters as they bend the knee to the negative and life-debilitating tendencies of social media.

Further afield, small developing states like Jamaica find themselves caught up in the uncertainty caused by geopolitical events over which they have no control. There are emerging trends in the international space that should be of grave concern to any Government of Jamaica this year. I believe it will be a momentous year in which a number of things may impact the country economically.

The Vladimir Putin carnage in the Ukraine continues as the narcissism and megalomania, which infects all autocratic leaders, refuses to recognise the dignity of human life. Putin, the Russian president, thought that he could have brought the Ukrainian people under subjugation within a year. His intentions have failed abysmally, both on the battlefield and in international public relations. At home he is despised even though that cannot be made public because of the totalitarian iron grip he exercises over his people.

The North Koreans, who have sought to assist him, have found out that their fighting force is not as good they made themselves out to be. How a ceasefire or an end to the conflict is accomplished with a new Administration in Washington under President-elect Donald Trump is left to be seen.

And speaking about Trump, his hegemonic soundings about the Panama Canal, Greenland, and Canada are the latest unhinged statements from a leader who is as unpredictable as they come, and whose posturings, if they are given life, will plunge the world into further uncertainty and anxiety. As he assumes the mantle of leadership on January 20, 2025, many will not be holding their breath that this will be a time of calm or of good governance that will embrace the best interests of the American people and the world. If anything, the opposite is more in evidence if his first stand at the wicket is anything to go by.

The simmering cauldron of hate that characterises the Middle East poses geopolitical risks that the world will continue to confront in 2025. Despite this, I believe there will be a greater attempt to lessen the tension and seek peace in areas where this can be achieved, such as a ceasefire between Israel and the Gazans, ending with the release of all hostages.

The military situation has changed dramatically with the Israeli decimation of the military capability of Hamas and Hezbollah and, to some extent, the Houthis in Yemen. The Iranians foolishly gave Israel the opportunity it needed to degrade its military capabilities as well. With the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, there is now a better chance to work out a broader and more comprehensive peace plan for the region, with the US and its European allies working with moderate Arab countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Jordan.

I do not believe the world has to worry too much in 2025 about China. Despite attempts to shore up its economy, the Chinese economy is still showing signs of deterioration and worry to the Chinese leadership. They are not in a position to launch a takeover of Taiwan anytime soon. With the unpredictable Trump coming to power with sabre-rattling talks about tariffs, it will have its hands full dealing with the economy.

Back in Jamaica, no one knows how a new year will impact one’s fortunes or misfortunes. The past, 2024 in this instance, will be used by the intelligent as a guide to future actions. There is an adage in the investing world which cautions people’s expectations of what an investment can bring. It is a caution and a warning that past performance is no guarantee of what future results can be. While this is true for the investing world, on a broader level it is true of life itself.

It should be clear that the past can have serious implications to where we are in the present, especially if we continue to get the same results year after year. The question is: Are these results satisfying and life-enhancing or does one need to go in a new direction? If you continue to do things the same way you did in 2024 or even 2023, then the outcomes will be quite predictable. This is especially so with regard to lifestyle indulgences, whether sex, gambling, or mind-altering substances; in our treatment of the people we profess to love but treat shabbily and even kill; in our work ethic and in the moral world view to which we subscribe. What will 2026 be like?

Nonetheless I wish for you a healthy, contemplative, and rewarding 2025.

Dr Raulston Nembhard is a priest, social commentator and author of the books: Finding Peace in the Midst of Life’s Storms; The Self-esteem Guide to a Better Life and Beyond Petulance: Republican Politics and the Future of America. Check out his podcast -Mango Tree Dialogues- on his You Tube channel. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or stead6655@aol.com.