Nicolás Maduro’s inauguration for a third as Venezuelan president consecutive term comes amid escalating internal and international tensions.

Maduro has been accused of using new constitutional reform as a tool to consolidate his power amid loss of legitimacy and episodes of repression. This scenario unfolds in a country that has been facing political, economic, and social collapse for years.

Maduro claims that the constitutional reform aims to consolidate popular sovereignty. However, critics argue that its true purpose is to strengthen “Chavismo”, the ideology associated with Hugo Chávez, the president between 1999 and 2013.

Since 2017, when Maduro called a constituent assembly under the pretext of pacifying the country, these initiatives have been used to undermine Opposition forces and strengthen the Government’s repressive apparatus.

The recent proposal includes controversial laws, such as the Simón Bolívar Law, which stipulates severe punishments for political dissidents, limits the activities of NGOs, and facilitates the repression of civil movements. Moreover, reforms to electoral laws aim to further restrict the already limited space for Opposition activity.

These measures take place in the context of growing isolation for Chavismo, which is facing its worst political crisis since Maduro assumed power in 2013. The Government’s legitimacy has been deeply undermined by allegations of fraud in the July 2024 presidential elections, in which Opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia claims victory, supported by voting records that back his assertion.

The refusal of the National Electoral Council to disclose detailed results has heightened suspicions of irregularities. Consequently, the constitutional reform appears to be a manoeuvre aimed at strengthening the regime’s governability amidst a legitimacy crisis.

In addition to its political impact, the constitutional reform is expected to intensify repression. Following protests against the election results, more than 2,000 people were arrested, including minors. Allegations of torture, arbitrary detentions, and persecution continue to add to the extensive record of human rights violations attributed to the Chavista Government.

The detention of minors has drawn international condemnation, but the Government’s token gestures, such as releasing some political prisoners, are viewed as strategies to alleviate external pressure. Opposition figures like María Corina Machado and González himself face relentless persecution, with the latter forced into exile.

The international community is closely monitoring developments. Organisations such as the United Nations, the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, and the International Criminal Court have denounced the regime’s repressive practices, labelling them acts of State terrorism and launching investigations into crimes against humanity. However, concrete actions to curb Venezuela’s authoritarian advance remain limited, as Chavismo benefits from the lack of consensus among global powers.

Venezuela’s strategic alliances with powers like Russia and China are crucial for sustaining Maduro’s regime. Recently, Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez visited Beijing to attract investments and strengthen commercial ties, highlighting efforts to secure economic support. Simultaneously, Venezuela’s ties with Moscow provide military and political backing, reinforcing Russia’s presence in Latin America.

While these partnerships offer Venezuela partial protection from international sanctions, they also escalate global tensions by reflecting Russia and China’s geopolitical expansion strategies. Moscow uses its presence in Venezuela to challenge US hegemony in Latin America, mirroring actions in regions like Ukraine to expand its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe.

Meanwhile, China enhances its strategic role by investing in Venezuelan infrastructure and natural resources, replicating its economic and diplomatic expansion initiatives seen in Africa and Southeast Asia, cementing its position as a rising global power. This complex dynamic contributes to escalating international disputes, heightening rivalry among major powers, and affecting global and regional stability.

Regionally, Colombia, Brazil, and Chile have adopted cautious positions. While publicly condemning Maduro’s authoritarian practices, these nations maintain open diplomatic channels, balancing criticism of the regime with the need for regional stability. The European Union and the United States remain vigilant, with some powers considering harsher sanctions while others opt for a more diplomatic approach.

Venezuela’s future depends on several factors: the Opposition’s ability to rally internal and external support, the international community’s willingness to take concrete measures, and Chavismo’s resilience in the face of growing pressure. The parliamentary and regional elections scheduled for 2025 could serve as a turning point, but only if conducted under transparent and fair conditions.

— Reprinted from The Conversation a collaboration between academics and journalists that publishes research-based news and analysis.