In the early noughties, the principals of Netflix asked for and were granted a meeting with those of Blockbuster. Netflix’s owners/executives offered to sell their company to the owner/key decision-makers of Blockbuster for US$50 million. The offer by Netflix was responded to with unrestrained laughter by Blockbuster’s owner and executives. At the time of writing Netflix was worth US$521.47 billion. Blockbuster went of business in 2014.

The lessons here are critical. They centre on the huge significance of vision versus insular outlook, and missed opportunity versus seized opportunity.

Not striking while the iron is hot can indeed have devastating impact. Admittedly, none of us can see into the future, nonetheless, if we apply discernment to certain obvious signs in front of us, and signs on the horizon, we can invariably make an informed/decent guess of what the future likely will look like.

Blockbuster’s owners paid the ultimate price for failing to see the obvious sings in front of them and on the horizon. In business, and so too in politics, if/when political parties make Blockbuster-type mistakes the results invariably are very similar.

BLOSSOMS NEAR FULL BLOOM

“Far preferable to wait until the eagle of victory takes its flight and then hang your proclamation around its neck.” (Harvard Business Review, September to October 2018 issue). The aphorism above comes from a famous bit of advice given to Abraham Lincoln, the 16th president of the United States, by his Secretary of State William Seward, as Lincoln wrestled with the issue of the best time to make public his transformative Emancipation Proclamation.

What’s the importance of stated aphorism to Jamaica? As I see it, five giant eagles of victory are in flight for Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness and the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP). The first is the very good state of our economy.

The second is the very consequential drop in murders nationally. At the time of writing murders this year compared to the similar period in 2024, have plummeted by almost 45 per cent, meaning 247 fewer Jamaicans have been murdered. There is a massive multiplier effect to this near 45 per cent fall in murders. It means hundreds of Jamaicans; in particular, ordinary Jamaicans are less burdened emotionally and physically today. Other crimes have massively plummeted too.

The third eagle is the enormous roadworks and related infrastructural developments happening nationally.

The fourth is the related and record-low, single-digit unemployment in the country — the lowest since Jamaica started keeping such records.

And the fifth is the implementation of a dedicated, reliable, safe, and affordable rural school bus service, which has finally commenced after decades of talk and no action.

The political compass, as I see it, is pointing directly at a third term at Jamaica House for the ruling JLP. In the midst of very good political favour, 20 Belmont Road would do well to ensure that they guard against even the very appearance of political complacency.

Again, in business, and so too in politics, if/when political parties make Blockbuster-type mistakes the results invariably are very similar. One does not need to be a political Einstein to realise that the political Lignum Vitae is near full bloom, and that 89 Old Hope Road is trapped in a state of chronic befuddlement. The Mark Golding-led People’s National Party (PNP), more so the half that brands itself as RiseUnited, are evidently preoccupied with trying to scatter the caterpillars and butterflies that help to cause the paired orange dehiscent fruits of the “wood of life” to achieve its majesty.

Two Sundays ago, here, I illustrated with cogent and factual examples the PNP’s predicament in this respect. Recall I noted, among other things: “The Dennis Chung appointment is being used as a smokescreen by the PNP. As we say in local parlance, ‘Is a face card.’ There is no if, but, or maybe, the upcoming general election is a do-or-die contest for Golding and the PNP. They know it. Mark Golding’s PNP has a huge problem on its hand: How does it sensibly and practically compete against an Administration with a record of nationally meaningful and verifiable achievements like Andrew Holness’s JLP?”

Notwithstanding the five giant political eagles that are in flight, and the fact that eagles are the masters of the sky, the JLP must remember that eagles do have formidable enemies. Three of the five enemies were discussed here two Sundays ago. The other two, the most menacing, will be discussed soon. In the meantime, a keen eye must be kept on those who seek power by any means necessary. Well-thinking Jamaicans must remain very vigilant. Our future is at stake.

PIVOT NEEDED, NOW

As I understand it, the governing JLP and the Opposition PNP have almost completed their area council and related meetings (JLP), and divisional soundings and conferences (PNP), across the Island.

The JLP, very wisely, has been using its meetings to, among other things, show appreciation to party workers and also as a veritable classroom to remind and educate its supporters about the values of the party and its achievements over the last 9 years.

The PNP, on the other hand, has been using its meetings to ram home what it claims are rampant instances of corruption in the country. Simultaneously, the PNP has been making grand announcements about what it intends to do were it to form a future Administration. Here is an example: “The People’s National Party (PNP) says it will ensure that every Jamaican child becomes literate by the end of its first term in office. Opposition Spokesman on finance and Member of Parliament [MP] for St Andrew South Eastern Julian Robinson made the commitment at the campaign launch for Dennis Gordon in St Andrew East Central on Sunday.” (The Gleaner, June 15, 2025)

Robinson would do well to start with a pilot project. I suggest involving the base of his party, so that the next time they mount a demonstration, supporters do not exhibit the embarrassing and astounding levels of ignorance displayed recently when interviewed at a demonstration at National Heroes’ Circle by
Television Jamaica.

Robinson should also understand that no country has achieved a verified 100 per cent literacy rate for its children. He seems oblivious of the fact that literacy rates are usually measured for populations aged 15 and above, and that even very wealthy countries, like Luxembourg, Singapore, Finland, Norway, etc, do not have verified 100 per cent literacy for their children. The MP needs to understand that there are crucial factors such as disabilities and the technological divide, plus other factors, are realities even in the very richest countries. Robinson’s promise of universal literacy for children by the end of the first term of a future PNP Administration is glorified pie in the sky.

But back to the matter of the upcoming general election, it will be our 19th since universal adult suffrage in 1944. I think the JLP, by now, has done enough to remind its supporters of the values of the party, while simultaneously educating especially its base on its achievements over the last 9 years. It is time for them to pivot.

I think the PNP’s flogging of the now lame horse of corruption will not win it any more appreciable political brownie points. It is time for them to pivot.

The 32 per cent of those who intend to vote but have not made up their minds as yet, this according to the most recent Bluedot polls, are very anxious to hear something very fresh, which galvanises them into commitment. As far back as October 6, 2024 I said, among other things, in my The Agenda piece entitled ‘The JLP has been caught trying’: “The base of either party is very unlikely, by themselves, to secure the political bacon in a general election.” If my forecast is right, some who believe they are home and dry will get a rude awakening when the votes are counted.

During next month I will present here my forecasts for the next general election based on findings from the most recent road trips into 19 marginal seats. The undecided are the real kingmakers. They are not mightily interested in standpipe brawls. They are not very interested in performative games on political platforms. They are definitely uninterested in empty and unfundable promises which haven’t even a snowball’s chance of surviving in hell. The uncommitted from what I am picking up from the most recent road trips are interested in material betterment which the JLP or the PNP can/will realistically deliver quickly, very quickly.

Reputation and record of delivery are very important to the undecided. In times gone by, when a lady was interested in a gentleman, she would drop her handkerchief and watch to see if the potential suitor would retrieve it. His retrieval would invariably lead to a conversation which centred on courtship. In our party political context, the undecided dropped their handkerchiefs long ago. They are waiting for the best suitor. A word to the wise should be sufficient.

SOONER, THAN LATER

I don’t have a crystal ball to see into the future, but I believe it is best for Prime Minister Andrew Holness to call the general election sooner than later. Among other things, we are now in the hurricane season and, yes, there are now very prudent especially financial arrangements in place to repair the infrastructure of the country, etc, were we to suffer a hit. But history has taught us that events determine elections.

Recall this: “Jamaicans will go to the polls to elect a new Government on August 27, People’s National Party (PNP) president and Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller announced last night, ending weeks of speculation about the date and sending thousands of orange-clad supporters into a frenzy in Half-Way-Tree.

“ ‘…Election day, election day, for Portia’s first term, for the people’s term to send a signal again that Jamaica is serious, and a woman is in charge, to all the children, to all the women, to all the men, to all the youths, to all the seniors, to all persons with disabilities, the victory date for the People’s National Party, again, again, again, the election day will be the 27th of August…’ Simpson Miller said after announcing August 7 as nomination day.” (Jamaica Observer, July 8, 2007)

The parliamentary election had to be postponed in the aftermath of Hurricane Dean. It was held on September 3, 2007, and the JLP won a very close contest. Natural disaster events can have a pendulum-like effect too.

Recall that when Hurricane Gilbert landed on our shores on September 12, 1988 it left a trail of death and billions in damage. The Administration at the time, led by Prime Minister Edward Seaga, had been trailing in the polls. Gilbert threw a political lifeboat to the JLP. By early November 1988 Jamaica was re-opened for business. Electricity and water were returned to most of the country. Schools were reopened. Businesses, government offices, and private homeowners had cleaned up debris, and things were mostly back to pre-Gilbert normal. Jamaica was commended locally, regionally, and internationally for the speed of recovery. Enthusiasm was aplenty in the country. The JLP regained the lead in the polls. Seaga was advised to call the general election. He did not. The general election was held in early February 1989. By then the bounce and momentum related to the recovery had waned. The JLP was defeated by a rebranded Michael Manley, who had dispensed with the Kariba suit for the Western-style jacket and tie. Manley no longer spouted democratic socialism as Jamaica’s salvation, but instead espoused the virtues of capitalism.

Seaga made a Blockbuster-like mistake. His mistake cost the JLP dearly. They spent 18 ½ years in the political wilderness. During that time, especially the PNP took a veritable wrecking ball to Jamaica. The economy spectacularly nosedived, crime in particular, murders spiralled, social decadence spread like a wildfire, and ordinary Jamaicans were made poorer and less respected.

Holness would do well to avoid a Blockbuster-like mistake.

Garfield Higgins is an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.

Andrew Holness

Michael Manley

Edward Seaga

Mark Golding