JLP holds 10% lead
Poll finds Vaz would whip Crawford as voters split 37% for governing party to PNP's 27% in Portland EasternSunday, March 10, 2019
More people polled in Portland Eastern say they would vote for the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) if a parliamentary by-election was being held now.
That is the finding of a Bill Johnson Poll commissioned by the Jamaica Observer and conducted March 1 and 2 in the constituency which the JLP's Ann-Marie Vaz and the People's National Party's (PNP's) Damion Crawford will contest on April 4 in a by-election triggered by the death last month of Dr Lynvale Bloomfield who had won the seat for the PNP in the February 2016 General Election.
Veteran pollster Johnson, whose team of researchers questioned 480 constituents on issues specific to the upcoming by-election, said the survey has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 per cent.
When the pollsters asked constituents which of the two political parties they would vote for if a by-election was held today, 33% of respondents said they would definitely mark their ballot for the JLP, four per cent they probably would vote JLP, while 25 per cent said definitely the PNP and two per cent said they would probably vote PNP.
Whenthe definite and probable votes are tallied, the JLP would enjoy a majority of 37 per cent to the PNP's 27 per cent, or a lead of 10 per cent.
Eighteen per cent of respondents said they were undecided, another 18 per cent indicated that they would not vote.
Asked to give the reasons for their preference, 37 per cent of those who said they would vote JLP told the pollsters that the governing party was doing a good job and making progress; 26 per cent said they were supporters of the party and that their loyalty was a family tradition; 16 per cent felt that the JLP is better than the PNP, while 17 per cent said that Vaz is good.
Of those who were firm that their vote would go to the PNP, 43 per cent said they were supporters and that their endorsement was a family tradition; 20 per cent said the party would do a good or better job than the JLP; while 11 per cent said the PNP cares about people.
Interestingly, the pollsters found that in the five electoral divisions total support for the the JLP among women was 43 per cent compared to 26 per cent for the PNP, while among men the gap was 31 per cent JLP to 28 per cent PNP.
That level of support could influence the outcome of the April 4 vote as Crawford has been accused by the JLP and other critics of making sexist comments against his opponent in his address at a PNP mass rally on March 3 when he was introduced to constituents.
In Port Antonio, the parish capital, the PNP enjoys more support (33 per cent) than the JLP (29 per cent). In Prospect the split was 47 per cent JLP to 28 per cent PNP; Fairy Hill, 35 per cent JLP to 33 per cent PNP; Manchioneal, 36 per cent JLP to 19 per cent PNP; and Fellowship 39 per cent JLP to 18 per cent PNP.
TOMORROW: The favourability ratings of Prime Minister Andrew Holness and Opposition Leader Dr Peter Phillips.
If a by-election for the Portland Eastern constituency was being held today, do you think you would probably vote for the JLP, or would you definitely vote for the JLP, or would you probably vote for the PNP, or would you definitely vote for the PNP, or would you probably not vote as things stand now?
Probably JLP 4%
Definitely JLP 33%
Probably PNP 2%
Definitely PNP 25%
Would Not Vote 18%
What are the main reasons why you feel this way?
Reasons Why JLP:
Doing a good job, making progress 37%
JLP supporter, family tradition 26%
Better than PNP 16%
Vaz is good 17%
Care about/help people 4%
Reasons Why PNP:
PNP supporter, family tradition 43%
Would do a good/better job 20%
Care about/help people 11%
Like it, a good party 7%
Divisional and gender support for parties
JLP PNP Und REF WNV
Total 37% 27% 18% *% 18%
Port Antonio 29% 33% 17% 1% 20%
Prospect 47% 28% 15% 0% 10%
Fairy Hill 35% 33% 17% 0% 15%
Manchioneal 36% 19% 23% 0% 22%
Fellowship 39% 18% 19% 1% 24%
Men 31% 28% 23% 1% 18%
Women 43% 26% 13% 0% 19%
18 - 24 years 42% 28% 13% 1% 16%
25 - 34 years 40% 23% 21% 0% 16%
35 - 44 years 40% 19% 12% 1% 28%
45 - 54 years 35% 28% 20% 0% 17%
55 - 64 years 31% 40% 21% 0% 8%
65 & older 29% 30% 21% 0% 21%
KEY: Und = Undecided; REF = Refused to answer; WNV = Will Not Vote; * = less than half of 1 per cent