DIRECTOR general of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) Dr Wayne Henry is advising that specific policy measures be put in place to ensure Jamaica’s continued growth and productivity over the next three decades as the country’s population ages.

The PIOJ head, during a quarterly press briefing on Tuesday, explained that the country will need to prepare to take advantage of the developmental opportunities at the various stages of demographic shifts as the working population ages into retirement and as the student population transitions into the workforce.

“Population ageing is a feature of development; the demographic transitions present opportunities for the entire country to benefit, and for inter-country advances as well. Real growth will result in more allocable resources for social transformation,” he argued.

Henry pointed out that as time progresses, the structure of the Jamaican population will undergo demographic transition where a significant proportion of the country’s population is in the child age cohort, to periods in which the working age population grows much faster than the population that depends on it, which he said is being seen now.

“This creates a window of opportunity to accelerate production and consumption, referred to as the first demographic dividend. It also creates an opportunity to invest in physical and human capital — that is, education and health of families,” he said.

Henry further noted that as the population transitions again, becoming top heavy, the elderly population — that is, persons aged 65 and over — will double by 2050; the working age group — that is persons aged 15-64 years — will be declining; and the child population — persons under 15 years — will be stabilising at much lower levels. He said that this shift is expected to temper the pace of growth and create additional health expenditure.

“However, if the country does well in building up physical and human capital during the first demographic dividend, it creates an opportunity for higher productivity and growth, referred to as the second demographic dividend. These dividends/gains are not automatic and therefore require actions to be taken to ensure dividends are attained at each stage,” he said.

He suggested that to this end, policy initiatives focusing on increasing productivity can be undertaken to take advantage of the opportunities presented by demographic dividends.

Henry stressed that the productivity of the labour force is critical to ensure that production outweighs consumption so that persons can invest in their future consumption while strengthening individual and collective ability to earn and consume by: strengthening the education and training system to reskill and upskill the labour force to take advantage of existing and emerging industries; strengthening the health-care system, through advocating preventive health care given Jamaica’s relatively high prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), which restricts the size and productivity of the labour force, especially of older persons; improving social security coverage within the working-age population so that no one is left behind. This will avert the future burden of welfare budgets on the State, as older populations increase in numbers and live longer in retirement.

He also said reducing informality, which is usually associated with lower wages, relatively poor working conditions and no pension. These conditions may reduce persons’ ability to save for the future; improving financial access and literacy, by creating new instruments that facilitate savings, especially for pension, and the creation of wealth, as well as educating persons on the importance of saving for their future; and encouraging and supporting healthy lifestyles and strengthening the care economy, for example, by increasing access to childcare for parents, especially for women who would like to rejoin the labour force, given that most of the work in the unpaid care economy is borne by them are strategies that can be implemented.

“While policy has a part to play in achieving the demographic dividends, each family also has a role to play to ensure that they take advantage of the opportunities and minimise the risks associated with the ageing of the population, by reprioritising education and training, as well as preventive health within the family to build human capital. It will also mean taking advantage of programmes to improve financial literacy, to leverage financial products that meet the savings and investment needs of the family,” he said.