THE ruling People’s National Party (PNP) made a marginal (0.8 per cent) gain in voter support in the February Observer/Stone poll, but not enough to close the gap between itself and Edward Seaga’s Jamaica Labour Party (JLP).

In this early February survey, 24.7 per cent of the electorate supported the JLP as the party for which they would vote if an election was held at that time, against 21 per cent who supported the PNP.

Uncommitted voters represented approximately 50 per cent of the electorate and support for the new United People’s Party had slipped three-and-half percentage points to 4.2 per cent in the three months between the Observer/Stone poll surveys.

With the JLP’s support having slipped nearly a percentage point (0.9 per cent) since Stone previously polled for the Observer in November, the Opposition party now enjoys a 3.7 per cent lead over the PNP, suggesting a likely intense struggle for voter allegiance from the big parties.

“Bearing in mind the sample margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, the difference between the two main parties is very close to a statistical dead heat, with the JLP enjoying a confidence-boosting advantage,” Stone noted. For this survey Stone interviewed 1,203 people, aged 18 and over, in 44 communities across Jamaica.

On the face of it, there is strong basis for JLP confidence.

For instance, one of the findings of the survey, published last week, showed that 52 per cent of the people did not believe that the PNP, in office since 1989, deserved a fourth consecutive term in government.

That was nearly two-to-one to the 27 per cent who felt that the PNP should be voted back into government. Another 21 per cent did not have a view on the matter.

At the same time, while the PNP has made incremental gains or remained firm in its support in the four polls since last July, the JLP has been on a bit of a roller-coaster.

For example, its support between November 2000 and July last year jumped from 17 per cent to 28 per cent. By September 2001 it was up another percentage point to 29 per cent, but in November was down to 25.6 per cent and then this February’s 24.7 per cent.

But even as the JLP has remained ahead of the PNP in voter support since towards the end of 2000, more people continue to believe that it is the PNP, rather then the JLP, that will win the election.

When Stone in February questioned people on their perception of the likely victor, 37 per cent said the PNP, five percentage points more than the 32 per cent who said the JLP. Two per cent believed the UPP would win and one per cent said the National Democratic Movement, which has all but dropped out as a factor in the electoral race.

But Stone said that the correlation between this perception and the outcome of an election was not proven and suggested that the response may be an ingrained belief in the JLP’s incapacity to win elections given its long period of failure.

“More likely, based on the fact that the JLP has not won a contested general election since 1980, even in polls that show a JLP lead, there is a socio-political hangover of seeing the JLP more as a good second placer than as a party ready to take power from the PNP,” the pollsters said.

Question: If an election was held now, which party would you vote for?

JLP 24.7%

PNP 21.0%

UPP 4.2%

NDM 0.2%

Uncommitted 49.9%

100%

Comparison with earlier polls

May 2000 July 2000 Nov 2000 July 2001 Sep 2001 Nov 2001 Feb 2002

PNP 19% 24% 15% 20% 20% 20.2% 21.0%

JLP 17% 20% 17% 28% 29% 25.6% 24.7%

UPP – – – – 7% 4.7% 4.2%

NDM 6% 7% 7% 2% 1% 0.3% 0.2%

Uncommt. 58% 49% 61% 50% 43% 49.2% 49.9%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Stone comment

The JLP has been able to hold on to the lead it has had since November 2000 but where the PNP has been showing incremental and maybe even insignificant increases since the November 2000 Stone poll, the JLP has had mixed fortunes, moving from 17% in November 2000 to a high of 29% in September 2001 and steady decreases in the November 2001 and February 2002 polls.

Bearing in mind the sample margin of error of + -3% points, the 3.7% difference between the two main parties is very close to a statistical dead heat, with the JLP enjoying a confidence boosting advantage.

Question: Which party do you believe will win the next elections?

PNP 37%

JLP 32%

UPP 2%

NDM 1%

Don’t know 28%

100%

Stone comment

The extent of which the responses to this question can serve as a indicator of which party has the best chance of winning the next election has not been proven.

All Stone polls done during the period when the JLP was losing elections and the polls showed the JLP in a losing position also indicated that the major perception was that the PNP would win the next election.

The November 2000 Stone polls which showed the JLP moving ahead of the PNP also showed that 45% of our respondents believed the PNP would win the next elections, as against a small 13% who said they believed the JLP would win.

More likely based on the fact that the JLP has not won a contested general election since 1980, even in polls that show a JLP lead, there is socio-political hangover on seeing the JLP more as a good second placer rather than a party ready to take power from the PNP.