Edward Seaga’s Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) extended to seven per cent points its voter support over the ruling People’s National Party (PNP) as Jamaicans last month indicated, by several measures, a preference for the Opposition party to lead the country after the general election.

A poll conducted for the Observer in late March, by the Stone Organisation showed the JLP with a support of 30.8 per cent, up 6.1 percentage points from in February when the Observer previously sought to determine for whom Jamaicans would cast their ballots if an election was held at that time.

In February the JLP, its support having slipped by approximately one percentage point — to 24.7 per cent — enjoyed a 3.7 per cent lead over the ruling PNP (21 per cent), just outside that survey’s margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.

But in the latest poll, although the PNP increased its support by 2.8 percentage points, to 23.8 per cent, the strong gain by the JLP during March allowed it to extend its lead over the PNP and well outside the poll’s margin of error of 4.2 per cent. For the March poll, Stone interviewed 602 people across Jamaica, against just over 1,200 people in February.

In March support for Antonette Haughton-Cardenas’ United People’s Party (UPP) tumbled to 1.2 per cent, against 4.2 per cent in February, continuing its trend of decline since the strong showing at its launch nearly a year ago.

The National Democratic Movement’s (NDM) essential collapse continued to be mirrored in the poll numbers, with its support remaining at 0.2 per cent.

While 25 per cent of people said they would not vote in the election, which Prime Minister P J Patterson will call this year, the big parties still have a substantial block of 19 per cent of undecided voters to which they can appeal.

“The PNP has some work to do in convincing its 1997 voters to support the party once again while the JLP needs to either hold the strength it has relative to the PNP or increase it,” Stone noted.

But it was not only in the party standings that potential voters indicated their leaning towards the JLP. On the perceptional issues, too, such as which party deserved to win the election and which would actually win — areas in which the PNP has tended to hold sway — the JLP was clearly ahead in the March survey.

For instance, when Stone asked people which party they would like to see win the election, 39.6 per cent said the JLP, against 32.4 per cent who said the PNP.

In other words, the differential was almost identical when people answered to how they would vote and which party they would like see win.

On which party people believed deserved to win, 40.6 per cent said the JLP, against 31.7 per cent for the PNP, giving