DR Ken Baugh, who replaced Edward Seaga as Opposition leader on Friday, is not expected to ruffle feathers or make any grand gestures during what is expected to be a short stint as head of the Jamaica Labour Party.

Baugh, who has never publicly indicated an interest in becoming party leader for any extended period, said his goal now is to “help the JLP move forward in a more dynamic way”. But he dismissed suggestions that he would not make any significant impact.

“I have the instrument of authority to be the Opposition leader,” he said yesterday. “I am leading a very dynamic team in Parliament. We have to make certain we help put an end to the deterioration taking place in our economy. It’s going to be a very busy and very eventful year.”

Baugh is unlikely to be Opposition leader for a full year and is expected to gladly relinquish the post when Bruce Golding wins a seat in Parliament.

Golding is eager for a by-election in West Kingston where he is sure to retain the Jamaica Labour Party’s (JLP) iron grip on the seat vacated by Edward Seaga last Wednesday. But up to last Friday there was no indication from Prime Minister P J Patterson about when constituents will be able to elect their new parliamentary representative.

Golding told reporters at a press conference last week that he hoped the vote would be no later than this March.

One PNP insider told the Sunday Observer last Friday that the poll may be as early as next month, and political analysts have pointed to the merits of an early vote.

However, the official word from PNP deputy general secretary Colin Campbell was that the prime minister, who is the only one who can decide when a by-election can be called to fill an empty seat, was still mulling over his decision.

“I’m sure that as soon as the prime minister checks with the Electoral Office of Jamaica (EOJ) and contemplates this thing, it will be announced. But I don’t know if you can say he is looking at any date now,” Campbell said last Wednesday. “The issue has not been discussed in any official way.”

The EOJ, for its part, said it would be ready for the vote any time the election was called. “Whenever they are ready, we would be ready. There is no reason why we couldn’t have a by-election at this point in time,” said Earl Simpson, the acting director of elections.

He is temporarily filling the gap left by Danville Walker who is on secondment to the Office of National Reconstruction.

The voting list that was printed for November 30 last year will be used. There are 17,565 registered voters and 152 polling stations in West Kingston.

Political analyst Shalmon Scott, who believes a by-election is not far off, argued that Baugh will not have enough time to become too comfortable in the role of Opposition leader.

“I suspect that now that Mr Golding has decided to run the garrison seat, the by-election in West Kingston will be in a very short time,” he said on Friday. “And therefore, even if Dr Baugh had other ambitions – which I don’t think he does – he would not have enough time to feel comfortable enough in the post of Opposition leader to want to love it sufficiently and not want to give it up.”

Baugh, Scott said, was too much of a party loyalist to want to plunge the JLP into another round of bickering; he would stick to the game plan.

Political analyst Dr Paul Ashley shared a similar view of Baugh.

“Ken Baugh, from all counts, is a non-confrontational, genteel man lacking in leadership ambition,” he said. “Therefore, he will merely hold the position – and I put emphasis on ‘hold’ – until Golding gets in. He won’t do anything, he will take pictures.

He will do the formalities and from what you read of the man, he hopes it (his stint as Opposition leader) is shorter than longer.”

Baugh, he said, would not make any waves nor ruffle any feathers.

“You won’t hear the leader of the Opposition ranting and raving, no, no, no,” insisted Ashley. “He’ll take the polite pictures and will duly carry out any functions that protocol dictates.

So he will go and meet heads of government, if they come, and shake their hands. I don’t think history will even remember him as a leader of the Opposition.”

Ashley argued: “You have to be realistic. He is not going to be called upon to do anything that is sensational or headline-grabbing, he’s just the ‘caretaker’.”

The political analyst was also insistent that it would be in the nation’s best interest to have a by-election in West Kingston as soon as possible.

West Kingston, which Seaga represented in Parliament from 1962 up to last Wednesday, includes the often-volatile Tivoli Gardens Division where Seaga made history by erecting high-rise buildings in the 1960s to address a housing problem that transformed the former Back-O-Wall.

Tivoli is fiercely loyal to Seaga, who on Thursday endorsed Golding as his successor in the constituency during a rally at the Coronation Market. Seaga is the only politician to have won back-to-back elections in West Kingston.

Even JLP founder Sir Alexander Bustamante, who had won in 1944 had to beat a hasty retreat in 1949. Hugh Lawson Shearer won in 1955 and was thrashed in 1959. Seaga went on to win nine consecutive elections.

West Kingston also includes the PNP enclave Matthews Lane, where Donald “Zeeks” Phipps has earned a reputation as the area don.

The constituency also includes areas such as Little King Street and Haggart Street where the EOJ knows it will not have to worry itself unduly about erecting polling divisions because the people have moved out in fear after bouts of sporadic violence over the years.

Tivoli Gardens is also known as the place where 25 civilians and two members of the security forces were killed during a gun battle between the police and gunmen in July 2001, and the two days of violence in 1997 that left four dead and many others injured.

Seaga loyalists have argued, over the years, that these battles were simply staged attempts aimed at demonising the West Kingston MP by portraying his constituency as a politically violent area that tried to operate as if it were above the law.

Ashley argued, last week, that there was a need to have a Parliamentary representative in place soon, someone who could be held accountable for whatever happened in Tivoli.

“Tivoli has always played a critical role, even in political mobilisation on the streets. So you need, if you look at it cynically, someone to be in control and accountable for the actions of that constituency,” he said.

“Someone has got to be formally in control and accountable to Parliament about that constituency. So it would seem to me from a national perspective, that a by-election should be called soon.” During last week’s press conference, Golding had also alluded to the implications of a delayed vote.

“I would feel that if by March the people (of West Kingston) were to find themselves without representation, the people would begin to hurt and would begin to express themselves,” he told senior journalists during a meeting at the Knutsford Hotel in Kingston.

But according to the PNP’s Campbell, West Kingston is no more important than any of the other 60 constituencies across the island and would be treated as such during the making of any decision about the date for the by-election.

“Every constituency is equally important. Tivoli is not more important than anywhere else in Jamaica,” he said. “Every one is equally important and I think the prime minister would try to make sure that all areas are represented in Parliament.” However, Ashley argued that leaving the area without an MP for too long would be undemocratic.

An early vote, he added, could also benefit Patterson as it would help shape the legacy he will leave behind. Patterson is expected to give up his post as PNP president this year. And calling a by-election sooner than later would also be in keeping with the unwritten code of gentlemanly conduct under the Westminster model of government, the analyst said.

“There is no rule, but you behave like gentlemen; and therefore one leader acknowledges another potential leader,” Ashley said. “Golding has a very critical role to play in the Opposition and, in fact, is possibly the next prime minister.”

He also argued that there is no good or strategic political reason not to have the vote as soon as possible.

“There is no way the PNP can ever think of winning Tivoli now, so it doesn’t make any sense putting it (the by-election) off. It’s not like they have a challenger they need to reorganise, they have no need to play for time.”

However, PNP chairman Robert Pickersgill hinted at Thursday’s press conference that improvements in the EOJ’s machinery may help to improve the PNP’s chances in West Kingston. The PNP caretaker for West Kingston is Joseph “Bunny” Witter.

Witter could not be reached for comment, but according to Sunday Observer sources he may have an interest in running again.

There have been suggestions, however, that the PNP is looking in another direction as they do not believe Witter is strong enough to begin laying a foundation that will eventually wrest the seat from a JLP without Seaga.