THE political pundits do not give Dr Omar Davies any chance of winning the race for president of the People’s National Party (PNP). He doesn’t have the delegate count behind him. He is not a charismatic candidate and, as minister of finance, he has had to preside over a cruel economic austerity programme, they argue.

Davies also has a tendency to mis-speak. He has not been allowed to forget his infamous ‘run wid it’ speech after the 2002 election, in which he admitted to fiscally-imprudent spending decisions to bolster the PNP’s chances at reclaiming office; and his dismissal of some of the young males in the inner-city bowels of his constituency as ‘irredeemable’.

But the Davies camp is ignoring all of that.

Their candidate is making the fastest gains, they counter, in terms of support for the five leadership contenders to succeed P J Patterson and they are buoyed by his recent big win in the race for Region Three chairman.

The people with deep pockets seem to favour Davies. He is a no-nonsense man who can’t be swayed by just any wind that blows. And most importantly, the wheel of economic recovery now seems to be turning in the right direction.

Seen as somewhat of an outsider in the nitty-gritty of electoral politics, Omar Davies has enjoyed a mixed reputation since assuming the post of finance minister 12 years ago.

The fact that he has emerged as a leading contender in the race for leadership of the PNP comes as no surprise to some.

“He has a very distinguished career in public service and politics. He has distinguished himself as finance minister and has laid the foundation for modern Jamaican economic enterprise,” says Donald Buchanan, who is solidly behind his cabinet colleague’s push to the top.

Buchanan, the water and housing minister who is taking his leave of representational politics, is one of the few cabinet ministers who have already publicly thrown in their lot with Davies.

“Omar has made the tough decisions and stood by them through his extraordinary personal integrity…He believes in the prosperity of the Jamaican people as the first principle of economic policy,” says Buchanan.

He respects Davies’ capacity to work with different classes in the society and the high regard with which he is held in the multilateral institutions and private capital markets.

Davies himself feels he has earned significant political capital overseas and he asserts with characteristic frankness that in terms of exposure and experience he is the best man for the job as PNP president and prime minister.

“Perhaps more than any other candidate, I am able to understand the global challenges and bring to bear my international exposure and profile, as well as my experience in weathering crises,” he said in Sunday Observer interview.

“I have been part of the collective decision-making in the PNP which has laid the foundation for sustainable rapid economic growth and I am pledging that I will continue to build on the positive foundations in a world that is constantly changing.”

Davies came to representational politics from a background in academia. He signalled his interest in public affairs through a series of columns in the Portmore-based community newspaper Twin City Sun, followed that up with the Jamaica Daily News and finally on Radio Jamaica. He gave up his lecturing job at the University of the West Indies (UWI) to manage the government’s Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ).

It was there that he caught the attention of Prime Minister Patterson who hand-picked him to be finance minister when Hugh Small resigned in a huff in 1994.

To remove constitutional hurdles, the way was cleared for him to take over the PNP safe seat – some would say garrison constituency – of South St Andrew.

Davies soon showed he was no political novice by moving immediately to tear down the bitter historical barriers between his constituency, particularly the enclave known as Arnett Gardens or ‘Concrete Jungle’ and the bordering JLP garrison of West Kingston, notably Tivoli Gardens.

He drew blood when his public sanitation project to build outdoor bathrooms and toilet facilities triggered accusations that he was wooing Rema, an enclave historically loyal to the JLP. Gunmen allegedly from Tivoli retaliated by attacking the ‘turncoats’.

The MP has had mixed results in the constituency and ran into political flak when he declared that some of the young men there were irredeemable. But some of the testimonies are positive.

“Dr Davies is a good man, he believes in education and giving people a chance,” says Keisha, a young mother.

She says measures introduced by Davies, such as his ACE programme which assists school dropouts to get another chance at an education and skills training, are making a world of difference in the lives of the residents. Some of his protégés have gone on to achieve university degrees.

Davies has also established homework and other after-school programmes and insists on performance from the teachers at schools in the constituency.

“The most critical element in handling the challenges of globalisation is more education to produce a work force that is world class,” Davies tells the Sunday Observer in an interview.

“What you see at the constituency level is a new kind of politics, I have been accused of not being a politician, but I believe that one must cut across barriers to promote overall national development,” he says.

“Dr Davies a try still. Him promote unity and get ‘Jungle’ and ‘Garden’ to come together through football and nuff other tings,” verifies Richard from his base close to the famous ‘Black Roses Corner’ in the constituency.

“But we still woulda want see more work programme run so more man can earn, seen,” he adds.

Measuring Davies’ performance as finance minister is not as clear cut and it is either good or bad, depending on who is talking.

Many still blame him for the meltdown of the financial sector in the mid 90s, while others credit him with moving astutely to stem the crisis, pointing to his creation of FINSAC and success in divesting a number of major assets including banks and insurance companies, utility companies and hotels.

Critics blast him for the battering taken by the Jamaican people, especially the poor, after years of economic belt-tightening, insisting that he has had enough time to turn things around. They cite the huge public sector debt which currently stands at well over $700 billion and drags away vital resources from social programmes benefiting the most vulnerable.

On the other hand, his backers point gleefully to manageable inflation rate, stable foreign exchange rate, the trending down of interest rates, higher Net International Reserves (NIR) and record investments in the bauxite, tourism and communications sectors, as signs that the long awaited economic recovery is on.

All that might not redound to any good for Davies, according to political analyst and attorney, Dr Paul Ashley.

Ashley does not think Davies’ performance as financial minister, which he described as a mixed bag, or his outstanding representation as MP, are required attributes for the top job.

“I don’t know if PNP or for that matter JLP leaders have ever been voted in because of their ability to run a portfolio. The PNP has a serious election machinery which is already significantly committed to Peter Phillips, whether he (Davies) can harness it remains to be seen,” says the analyst.

Davies’ greatest challenge, he further argues, is his ability to face the electorate, pointing out possible holes in his “campaign for prosperity” theme.

“If he did not achieve prosperity over the past 12 plus years, how is he going to achieve it now? Every politician would say they are for prosperity but we have poverty. If it is a campaign for prosperity, where the hell has he been for the past 12 years?” asked Ashley.

“Dr Davies is someone who is respected more abroad than at home,” counters businessman Christopher Bicknell of Tankweld Construction and one of Davies’ strongest supporters.

“The IMF, the World Bank, Bear Stearns and other leading rating agencies all recognise the man as trustworthy, efficient and possessing a mastery of economic management in these times when international financial and economic affairs is like walking through a minefield,” Bicknell says.

“It always surprises me how we undervalue this man,” laments Bicknell whose association with Davies stretches back to 2000 when his help was sought for community projects in Arnett Gardens, including the upgrading of the well-equipped Tony Spaulding Sports Complex.

Explaining his support for Davies, Bicknell, 45, points to the finance minister’s handling of the economy and adds: “People who approach you don’t tell you what they have done with the assistance, or where it is going, they just want help. Davies was extremely accountable and inspired me to get involved,” says the 45-year-old businessman.

Bicknell is probably the most public of Davies financial backers who also include investment banker, Peter Bunting, a former PNP MP, in what is widely felt to be the best financed campaign.

If Davies is not seen as the typical politician, he certainly has organisational savvy. He has assembled what many regard as a super team of organisers, receiving campaign advice from Dr D K Duncan, the legendary former PNP general secretary from the fractious 70s, Donald Buchanan, the water and housing minister and Harvard-trained Imani Duncan, daughter of DK, and who is said to be a tireless and brilliant planner.

Davies’ “Campaign for Prosperity” team, operating out of a floor in the Citibank building in New Kingston, has established a reputation for organisational finesse and glitz – from flickering computer screens and the ever-present finger food, when seeking to woo delegates and inform the wider country of his suitability for the nation’s top post.

The slick campaign marked by a soft launch at the hip watering hole Cuddyz and a historic campaign video, melt into a wider strategy of appealing to delegates and others of influence across the country taking in the six regions of the party.

And Davies appears to have come-back ability. After he shocked even admirers with his much-too-frank and now famous “run wid it” speech to a party conference, he decided to swing low and eat humble pie. Some felt his political career was over.

But his come-back appeared complete when he signed an historic Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the trade unions, offering to keep 15,000 public sector jobs which were threatened, in exchange for a pact stalling wage increases for two years.

Buchanan sees the MOU achievement as evidence of Davies’ negotiating skills, his conciliatory nature and his ability to build consensus on critical national issues.

In his own words, Davies sees “deepening the engagement between government and civil society as critical to my platform, while recognising that many in civil society don’t trust politicians as partners.”

With all that, Ashley sees Davies as “running about third” in the succession race but appearing to be the fastest gainer among the five contenders – the others being Portia Simpson, Peter Phillips, Karl Blythe and Robert Pickersgill (not in order of importance).

“He appears to be the only candidate that is gaining ground because of an apparently well financed public relations campaign, but I would add the caveat that it could be a case of nyam them out and then vote them out,” Ashley cautions.

But the analyst concedes: “Put it this way, a number of key players in the financial sector who have obviously benefited over the past decade from his policies seem to support him. Politics is about levels, and it seems to me that they approve of his policies and he has cast his lot with them.”

bellanfanted@jamaicaobserver.com