LOVED by some, vilified by others, Prime Minister PJ Patterson has been Jamaica’s most successful political leader electorally, leading his party to victory at the polls in three successive polls to smash the traditional two-term cycle for parties in office.

But one leading academic who cites Patterson’s political acumen as his most important legacy, also cites his failure so far to put the reins on rampant crime as the greatest negative in his period of governance.

Having succeeded then ailing Michael Manley mid-way the People’s National Party 1989 term, Patterson, since 1992, has had the longest uninterrupted run in government of any prime minister in Jamaica’s history – 13.7 years.

The party itself has had an uninterrupted 17 years.

In that time, says Professor Brian Meeks, head of the Department of Government at the University of the West Indies, Patterson has cemented one of his most lasting legacies – taking the country’s politics from “virtual civil war” in the 1970s and 80s to the point of “business as usual.”

“Normalising politics has to be among his strong suits,” said Meeks. “It is one of the strong cards in his hands for being among the better prime ministers we have had,” said Meeks.

But the election victories belie what has at times been a tenuous period of governance marked by a series of growing crises, including economic stagnation; the meltdown of the financial sector in the mid 1990s; unchecked murders now running above 1,300 so far this year, following a new record of 1,471 last year; declining values and attitudes societally; a series of scandals related to poor government accountability; and latterly a serious energy crisis caused by massive world oil price increases.

Patterson has presided over possibly the most massive investment in infrastructure, including quantum increases in the capacity of Jamaica’s sea and airports, new highways, and housing construction.

There is far easier access to telephones through the revolution of cellular, piped water, electricity, motor vehicles and schools than 13 years ago.

Far more Jamaicans now attend university.

The country’s infant mortality rate at 19.9 per 1,000 of the population and average life expectancy of 73.25 years – according to 2001 figures reported in the Economic and Social Survey 2004 – are comparable to developed countries, and are an improvement over the 24.5 per 1,000 for infant mortality in 1993 and average life expectancy of 72 years in the same base year.

The continued increases in life expectancy reflects advancements in public health and primary health care, both in terms of access and quality, notwithstanding new challenges such as violence and the spread of HIV/AIDS.

But on the debit side is a society with a much higher incidence of murder and a population more inclined to violent and fatal disputes than helping a neighbour.

In 1993, when Patterson assumed the mantle of leadership, murders stood at 654 for the year, an already high figure for Jamaica’s 2.6 million population. Now they have more than doubled.

At the heart of the problem, according to analysts, is the international drug trade which finds ready recruits in the legions of inner-city ‘shottas’, whose role is simply to kill and create mayhem in the fight for supremacy over turf.

The turf wars, combined with social dysfunction, fuels the murder rate. The result has been a $15 billion cost on the country’s health system, a 2004 study has found, associated with crime and violence and the treatment of victims.

Problems exist too in areas such as primary infrastructure with the erosion of major roads and roads within communities, persistent high youth unemployment and growing alienation as traditional family structures give way to the pressures of migration and increasing urbanisation.

Meeks suggests that Patterson’s political stratagem, which has worked so well for him electorally, is really an extension of his personality.

“His unwillingness to make statements after every incident, his relatively low profile as a leader, relate not just to his personality, but are aspects of a less confrontational approach to politics,” said the political expert.

But, that same low-key approach, the unwillingness to intervene quickly, has been to the country’s disadvantage, Meeks suggests.

The UWI professor cites heavy migration of skills – what is generally referred to as ‘brain drain – growing crime and violence, and the polarisation or widening gap of rich and poor, as detracting features of Patterson’s leadership, saying these would have to be weighed along with his achievements in assessing the prime minister’s real contribution.

Meeks himself was not immediately prepared to offer a position.

“Jamaica is by no means a model in those terms, so I prefer to be ambivalent in my assessment of his tenure,” said Meeks, again citing out of control crime as the greatest negative of Patterson’s rule.

“The core responsibility of the state is security,” said the academic.

“Patterson should, in retrospect, have taken on the security portfolio himself. More needed to have been done in terms of bringing the authority and weight of the office of prime minister to bear on crime … from the point where Peter Phillips was given the job,” said Meeks who conceded he was speaking in hindsight.

Maxine Henry-Wilson, who has had the opportunity to see Patterson at work up close – both as PNP general secretary and information and education minister in Patterson’s Cabinet – says her boss can take credit for advances in education.

The PM, she said, has ‘broadened the democratisation’ of education, including the creation of 50,000 new high school places.

“Patterson, as a product of education, places a lot of store in it. He has remained true to the PNP tradition of increasing access to educational opportunities,” said Henry-Wilson in an assessment of her boss.

He can take credit, she said, for upgrading and expanding early childhood education, the introduction of the National Assessment Programme to improve the level of quality in the sector, the strengthening of the HEART Trust/NTA, government subsidising exam fees in core subjects and the re-introduction of the National Youth Service.

As for the $521 billion plan to transform the education system, based on the recommendations of the Rae Davis-led Task Force on Education, Henry-Wilson said it was Patterson who drove the process from the start.

“He set up the interim meetings, explored financing options and helped select the members,” she observed.

The bill for the reform, she suggested, would not be allowed to stymie the 10-year plan.

The programme would revolve around a number of initiatives including volunteer literacy programmes and partnering with other institutions.

“It is not just a question of money,” said Henry-Wilson. “It involves re-programming the education sector, in ways both qualitative and quantitative, including an examination of additional funding sources.”

On economic strategy, Meeks credits Patterson with achieving gains in stabilising the foreign exchange market, strengthening the country’s foreign reserves and attracting record investment, but posited that, under Patterson, rural development has been sacrificed.

“We have sacrificed the countryside and focused on what the market determines… This has led to the pauperisation of rural areas including rural towns,” said Meeks.

He also sees a nexus between crime and poverty and rural neglect.

Meeks argues that a greater focus on rural development would have countered urban drift, saying urbanisation – in the context of scarce economic opportunities and jobs in the capital – was connected to the high levels of crime and violence, as well as poverty.

Patterson came in for much praise, however, as a regionalist who had helped to cement the Caribbean as a bloc.

“His devotion and signal contributions to the Caribbean community, in a world coalescing around regional blocs, is significant,” said Meeks of the man widely recognised as a leading force behind the development of the Caricom Single Market and Economy (CSME) and the Caribbean Court of Justice.

bellanfanted@jamaicaobserver.com