PORTIA Simpson Miller is not only the sole People’s National Party leadership contender who could inspire her party to an election victory over Bruce Golding and his JLP in a general election, but would possibly give the Opposition a sound walloping, according to a new opinion survey.

The poll done for the Observer by the Stone Organisation showed that with Simpson Miller at the helm of the PNP, 42.4 per cent of voting age Jamaicans say that they would cast ballots for the party that has ruled Jamaica for 16 years.

That gives a Simpson Miller-led PNP an 11.6 percentage point advantage over a JLP under the leadership of Golding (30.8 per cent), who became the party’s boss in February after the retirement of Edward Seaga, who stepped down after 30 years.

On the other hand, if the PNP is led by any of the other candidates for the ruling party’s top job when Prime Minister P J Patterson steps down early next year, Golding’s party is the one which more Jamaicans say they would vote for.

On current standing, the JLP has an eight percentage point lead over the PNP hypothetically-led by Dr Peter Phillips, Simpson Miller’s main rival for the post.

Assuming the PNP was under the leadership of either the finance minister, Dr Omar Davies or party vice-president, Dr Karl Blythe, Golding and his party enjoys a lead of 18 percentage points and 17 percentage points, respectively.

“At present, the research is indicating that should Simpson Miller take the leadership of the PNP, a strong PNP win is in the making,” Stone said. “Of course, that assumes that all the negative factors now dogging the PNP do not increase between now and the next elections due in 2007.”

Stone conducted the poll between November 12 and 19, using a sample of 1,201 people in 40 communities across Jamaica. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.

Among the findings is that more people (29.7 per cent) believe that JLP would do a better job at running the country than the PNP (24.7 per cent) at this time. More people (35.3 per cent) also felt that the JLP deserves to win the next election than the PNP (28.6 per cent). Simpson Miller and Golding were in a dead heat (24 per cent) on which one of them would do a better job of running the country at this time.

While Simpson Miller (46 per cent) has a three-to-one preference among the public over Phillips (15.3 per cent) as the best person to lead the PNP, the gap narrows to only four per cent when people are asked which one they believe will win the leadership – an acknowledgment of Phillips’ strong support among the PNP’s hierarchy.

But when people were asked which of the parties they would vote for on the basis of which PNP’s contenders would face Golding, Simpson Miller emerged as the clear choice of the PNP if it wished to retain the government.

With Simpson Miller at the helm, 78 per cent of the people who voted for the PNP in the 2002 general election said they would cast their ballots again for the ruling party, while six per cent would defect for the PNP. On the other hand, approximately 13 per cent who voted for the JLP would now vote for the JLP, which would retain three-quarters of its votes from the last election.

With Phillips at the helm of the PNP, the party would retain 69 per cent of its 2002 voters, against eight per cent who would bolt to the JLP. Significantly, approximately 84 per cent of those who did so in 2002 would, with Phillips as president of the PNP, again vote for the Opposition JLP. A similar percentage of the JLP’s 2002 voters would again vote for the party if either Blythe or Davies led the PNP.

However, with either of the latter two contenders leading the PNP, those from the last election who would maintain their vote for the ruling party drop to 58 per cent, while 11 per cent of former PNP votes would now vote for the JLP.