‘PNP will win 44 seats in the next elections’
Recent pronouncements and interpretation of results of the Stone Polls August 2006 demand proper analysis in order to determine whether the defeat or victory for either party at the next General elections is supported by the poll findings.
On September 3, 2006, the Sunday Observer carried a headline “Massive cut in lead”, giving the impression that the People’s National Party (PNP) could lose the next general elections.
The margin of error of the poll was stated to be plus or minus 3%. The newspaper ascribed the entire minus 3% to the PNP lead, concluding that the difference between the parties was a “statistically insignificant” 1.7%.
The proper focus, however, is to project the effect of a 4.7% lead by the PNP and a loss of 1% by the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) on a seat count if a general election were held now. The extent of the “swing” is therefore most relevant in this exercise.
The August Stone Poll found that 30.1% indicated they would vote PNP, whilst 25.4% said they would vote JLP. On these results, the PNP would obtain 54% of the vote to the JLP’s 46%.
In the 2002 general elections, the PNP obtained 51.6% of the vote to the JLP’s 47%. When compared to the 2002 general election results, the PNP’s vote share increases by 2.4% whilst that of the JLP decreases by 1%.
The “swing” factor therefore would be a total of 3/4% resulting in a vote increase of 3.4% to the PNP and a corresponding decrease of the JLP vote by the same margin.
The results obtained on the basis of applying the swing factor to the last election results are the most interesting indeed, as the PNP would end up with 44 seats to the JLP’s 16. The PNP would win 11 of those seats with a majority of less than 1,000 votes while the JLP would win 10 by the same margin.
Recent boundary changes have not been taken into account and may alter the expected results. These, however, should not affect the overall outcome of the seat count as some changes favour the JLP whilst others favour the PNP. What is clear…is that despite the finding of the August 2006 Stone Polls – that PNP support has decreased compared to the November 2005 Stone Polls – the PNP seems poised for yet another landslide victory.
Abe Dabdoub, formerly of the JLP, is now an independent Member of Parliament who is increasingly supportive of the Portia Simpson Miller-led PNP
