The following article was edited and reprinted from John Jackson’s Investor’s Choice, Jamaica’s leading business and finance magazine.

It is hard to find a seasoned political observer who will not agree that, in many respects, Jamaica is now in uncharted waters. The bitter wounds from the People’s National Party (PNP) presidential race last year have exposed a seriously fractured PNP that has been reeling from one scandal after another, with the ‘Trafigura’ bombshell further revealing the muddiness of the party’s internal affairs.

On the other hand, Bruce Golding, leader of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), has adeptly united his party after an equally bitter presidential campaign over a year-and-a-half ago by selecting former leadership competitors, neutralising less co-operative detractors and re-channeling the energies of the strident young ‘reformists’. Now he is making it known on the political stage that he and his party are ready to rule.

For both contenders, Golding and the PNP’s Portia Simpson Miller, the outcome of the general election is of critical importance to their political future. For Simpson Miller, a win would mean more than the mere obtaining of ‘her own mandate’. A nod from electors would allow her the opportunity to pick her own team and either neutralise or co-opt the support of the detractors in her midst.

A win for Golding would symbolise more than his political coming of age with the final dissipation of Edward Seaga’s shadow over the Labour Party. It would also signify an endorsement or mandate from the Jamaican people, which now seems more likely, with the October poll findings revealing for the first time since he became leader last April, the emergence of a “positive momentum” in his favour, contrasting with a ‘negative momentum’ for Simpson Miller for the first time.

Cabinet size

There are those who have already gone past the outcome of the upcoming elections to the new prime minister’s first task of hand-picking a Cabinet. On this score, it is easier to speculate on how Golding would exercise his judgement.

The first issue to determine is the matter of size. The number of ministers in a Golding-led Cabinet would, in all likelihood, be restricted to 12 or 13, say JLP insiders. Their calculations are based on an oft-repeated guideline of their leader – that the size of his Cabinet would not exceed one-third the number of the winning seats. The party, they boast, is on a trajectory to capture at least 39 seats.

However, insiders are less forthcoming about the rationale behind the guideline or that pertaining to the number of junior ministers likely to be appointed. Those claiming to be in the know insist that the complement of ministers would be restricted to eight.

The Simpson Miller Cabinet is comprised of 13 ministers, in addition to the prime minister. There are also 11 junior ministers.

There is far less speculation as to the size and composition of a Simpson Miller post-election Cabinet. Insiders say it is nigh impossible to make any meaningful predictions, save and except for their certain belief that a reconfigured Cabinet would, of necessity, include a significant number of the ‘Solid as a Rock’ and ‘Campaign for Prosperity’ stalwarts who currently make up its numbers.

Whereas uncertainty swirls around which Simpson Miller loyalists will win their seats, there is very little debate on the limitations of their talent pool, and even less on the necessity for ‘maintaining balance and unity’.

JLP Cabinet

Buoyed by poll findings and a bumper turnout at their annual conference, the more sanguine Labourites rattle off ‘prospective ministers’ lists which differ little from insider to insider. They include at least five relative newcomers, four of whom are in their late 30s or 40s. All except four have been understudying their ‘ministers’ prior to Golding becoming leader.

The others – businesswoman and scientist Shirley Williams, attorney Clive Mullings, university lecturer Dr Christopher Tufton and businessman James Robertson – were appointed party spokespersons of their respective portfolios by Golding. The ‘certain’ appointees are represented in the table below:

JLP’s certain appointees Portfolios

Karl Samuda Foreign Affairs

Audley Shaw Finance

Andrew Holness Education

Horace Chang Construction/Transportation

Christopher Tufton Tourism

Delroy Chuck Justice

Shirley Williams Commerce

Clive Mullings Energy, Telecommunications &

Utilities

Derrick Smith National Security

Kenneth Baugh Health

James Robertson Youth and Community

Development

Anthony Johnson Agriculture

Opinions are split on whether a full versus a junior ministerial appointment is in the offing for local government and water spokesperson Shahine Robinson. Some believe that a major mid-term revamping of local government could see the North East St Ann member of parliament in charge of that project. It is also widely thought that Golding has earmarked union boss Dwight Nelson for the ministerial communications portfolio attached to the office of the prime minister.

Among those considered to be within Golding’s line of vision for junior ministry appointments are:

. Party whip and deputy spokesperson for industry and commerce Andrew Gallimore;

. Long-time loyalist and recent returnee, Joan Gordon-Webley;

. Newly appointed senator and former police commissioner Trevor MacMillan;

. Engineer and former chief medical officer in the Ministry of Construction Joseph Hibbert;

. ‘Reformist’ Daryl Vaz who doubles as deputy party treasurer and candidate for West Portland;

. Golding’s brother-in-law and former NDM spokesperson for justice attorney Wentworth ‘Rocky’ Charles.

Some insiders also hazard affirmative guesses on whether Golding will cast his net in the direction of his former NDM presidential successor Hyacinth Bennett.

In or out?

Curiously, few admit to knowing just how secure a position past deputy leader Ed Bartlett would hold in a Golding line-up. Like Seaga devotee, Olivia ‘Babsy’ Grange, Bartlett’s profile appears to have waned considerably since Golding has been in the driver’s seat. Bartlett was said to have been among Golding’s stoutest detractors.

Many are also unwilling to place bets on former powerhouse Pearnel Charles being a part of his brother-in-law’s cabinet. Former party leader hopeful Mike Henry is being widely tipped as speaker of the House of Representatives. In recent times, some have speculated that Henry has flirted with the idea of lending his support to Simpson Miller.

Insiders claim ignorance about whether veterans like Ossie Harding, Ruddy Spencer and Arthur Williams would fit into Golding’s regime. When prodded, they point to Golding’s savvy at managing expectations amongst party loyalists jockeying for positions, by declaring early his bias against big government and large cabinets. As to whether he would appoint a deputy prime minister, “hardly likely” was one response to queries.

Statutory appointments

Interesting names are also being bandied about for non-ministerial appointments. A name that keeps popping up is Citibank’s chief executive, Peter Moses. The career banker is thought by many to be favoured as the new central bank governor when the contract of the current head expires. It is also being loudly whispered that engineer, contractor and businessman, Louis Williams will assume captaincy of an important grouping of development agencies, including the Urban Development Corporation.

One name that Golding is holding close to his chest, however, is the person whom he will choose to head another important grouping of agencies related to agriculture and scientific research.

Golding and his team have reportedly developed comprehensive plans to reorganise and restructure agricultural enterprise, tourism, information and communications technology. The plans also address the need to simplify the prevailing bureaucracy and strengthen the state’s data collection and planning agencies.

PNP Cabinet

Given the current state of the flux within the ranks of the PNP, the ruling party’s insiders are less willing or, perhaps, unable to paint a picture of a post-election Cabinet. It is not clear which of the prime minister’s allies will be accepted as replacement candidates in contentious constituencies.

If they pull off victories, Francis Tulloch and Vando Palmer would certainly make her shortlist. However, insiders were not willing to cast bets on how recent returnee Norman Horne will be viewed at the end of the day.

There is also the question of who among her ranks will be convinced to abandon retirement – as might be the case with Roger Clarke – or who might answer the trumpet call and be coaxed back into active service, as could eventually happen with Karl Blythe.

Inasmuch as it is reasonable to speculate, it seems easiest to begin with the list of ‘certain returnees’ regardless of where their loyalties lie. To maintain party unity, many consider the position of Peter Phillips, Bobby Pickersgill, Horace Dalley, Anthony Hylton, Derrick Kellier and Phillip Paulwell as non-negotiable. Those claiming to be in the know also assured that Omar Davies’ future as finance minister is safe, provided he remains interested and on board.

Insiders seem divided on whether close Phillips ally Maxine Henry-Wilson is untouchable. Most regard her fate as being more determined by her success at nailing down the South East St Andrew seat against Joan Gordon-Webley, than anything else.

Among the prime minister’s current slate of 11 junior minister’s, only three are viewed as airtight members of her camp – Richard Azan, Victor Cummings and Kern Spencer. However, Cummings will not be contesting a seat and Spencer, though widely acknowledged as a ‘hard worker’, has recently been viewed, to some extent, as a fence-sitter. Some feel that even though Delano Franklyn supported Phillips’ candidacy in the presidential race, he might retain his position in a parliamentary group because he is not stridently opposed to Simpson Miller.

Whatever pans out in the upcoming election, it seems certain that Simpson Miller will have to look to multiple sources such as the Senate to cull a Cabinet. A likely candidate from these quarters is Trevor Munroe, another Phillips supporter not viewed as vigorously ‘anti-Portia’. It must be noted that the senate has limited potential as a hunting ground and the prime minister is restricted to appointing only three of its ranks to Cabinet.

Neck and neck race

Both the polls commissioned by The Gleaner and the Observer are pointing to a tight race to the finishing line. The Don Anderson poll showed the PNP and JLP garnering a 32 per cent support at the end of October. This is in contrast to July’s standing of 38 per cent for the JLP. The poll’s sample size of 1,008 eligible voters had a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.

Constitutionally, general elections are due in 2007, with a 90-day extension to the five-year anniversary date of the last election held in October 2002. During this period, it is anybody’s guess as to what could unfold to change the fortunes of the ruling party or, for that matter, finally propel the Opposition to power.