LOCAL researchers are expected to tell Jamaicans later this month if the island could once again dig itself out from under the rubble created by an earthquake with the magnitude of the great earthquake that flattened Kingston in 1907.

They have been examining the likely impact that another 6.5 quake could have on the local economy and the environment, using as a springboard the 1907 quake which measured 6.5 on the Richter scale.

The research effort began in mid-November last year, and is being undertaken by the Institute of Sustainable Development (ISD) at the University of the West Indies (UWI), Mona.

The study also includes an examination of the 1993 earthquake, which measured 5.4. This is being funded jointly by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the UWI.

The assimilation of the effects on the environment was undertaken by geologist Rafi Ahmad, while Mourice Mason, an environmental economist and project officer with ISD, did the work on the economic effects.

“First draft of the research findings are to be presented to the UNDP next Friday for review, and then to the public by the end of the month,” Mason told the Observer.

The ISD officer said, meanwhile, that the findings so far reflected grave economic effects.

“There would be a spillover effect across all sectors. For the 1907 – which is a 6.5 earthquake – I am expecting a change in the structure of the economy in terms of the inter-industry relationship [even as] the agent of growth would be the construction industry,” Mason said. “The sector for which you would have the greatest deficit in terms of demand exceeding supply would be the emergency sector; so that hospitals would have the greatest effects,” he added.

According to Mason, Jamaica would take a long time to recover. He singled out the transportation sector, noting that it was likely to be the hardest hit.

“Given the linkages among the different sectors within the economy, it is the one that is greatest affected, [and] that would place the greatest constraint on the recovery process,” Mason said.

“The rate at which you can deal with the effects of the earthquake would depend on the transport sector,” he added.

Ahmad could not be reached Friday for comment on his findings to date, but engineering geologist Franklyn McDonald, who is associated with ISD, indicated that the environmental effect would be far-reaching.

“We would expect to see spills and escape of substances, whether it is fuel or hazardous chemicals. This is a matter that goes from the home to the national level. So, people need to earthquake-proof their homes,” said McDonald, who is also an advisor to the regional coordinating unit of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

In addition, McDonald also pointed out that “the shaking (from the earthquake)” would create landslides.

“One of the descriptions that we had from people at ships in Kingston Harbour in (1907) is the number of landslides they could see behind the hills in Kingston. Today, those hills have a variety of houses, so the landslides would certainly be a problem that would impact human health and safety,” he added.

Of note, McDonald said, is that ground water sources and the island’s shoreline would also be impacted.

Against this background, he has called on the government and private citizens to double their efforts to shore-up the island’s capacity to deal with an earthquake.

“At the moment, it would seem that there is a lot of work to be done,” McDonald said, adding that there was a range of questions to be contemplated if Jamaica is to be able to recover effectively from an earthquake the size of the 1907 and stronger. These questions, he said, would include whether the island’s emergency services were equipped with the requisite equipment and technical know-how. He has, in the interim, urged people to take advantage of the earthquake exhibition being staged across the island today and over the next several weeks to build their awareness of this naturally occurring phenomenon.

This week is being celebrated as Earthquake Awareness Week.