DENVER, Colorado (AP) – Scientists have predicted another active hurricane season with up to 17 named storms, nine of which are expected to develop into hurricanes ahead of the June 1 start of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season.

Forecaster William Gray said he expects five of the named storms to develop into major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The forecaster also predicted an above-average chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean and a 74 per cent probability that one will hit the United States coast this year compared with the average of 52 per cent over the past century.

Last year, Gray’s forecast and government forecasts were higher than what the Atlantic hurricane season produced.

There were 10 named Atlantic storms in 2006 and five hurricanes, two of them major, in what was considered a “near normal” season. None of those hurricanes hit the US Atlantic coast – only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945. The National Hurricane Centre in Miami originally reported nine storms, but upgraded one storm after a post-season review.

Gray’s research team at Colorado State University said an unexpected late El Nino contributed to the calmer season last year. El Nino – a warming in the Pacific Ocean – has far-reaching effects that include changing wind patterns in the eastern Atlantic, which can disrupt the formation of hurricanes there.

A weak to moderate El Nino occurred in December and January but dissipated rapidly, said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray’s team.

“Conditions this year are likely to be more conducive to hurricanes,” Klotzbach said Tuesday. In the absence of El Nino weather conditions, “winds aren’t tearing the storm systems apart.”

The team’s forecasts are based on global oceanic and atmospheric conditions.

Klotzbach advised coastal residents along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico to have hurricane plans and preparedness kits in place, but he added, “You can’t let the possibility of a hurricane coming ruin your summer.”

The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, averages 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

The devastating 2005 season set a record with 28 named storms, 15 of them hurricanes. Four of those hurricanes hit the US coast, the worst among them Katrina, which devastated New Orleans and levelled parts of the Gulf Coast region.

Gray has spent more than 40 years in tropical weather research. He heads the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State.

Federal government forecasters plan to release their prediction in late May.