A significant 54% of persons interviewed in an Observer-commissioned poll conducted by Don Anderson and his team from Market Research Services Limited said they had a favourable view of Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller, while 43% of respondents held the same view of Opposition Leader Bruce Golding.

At the same time, Simpson Miller and the ruling People’s National Party (PNP) came out ahead of the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in other questions posed by the pollsters to 1,117 voters in 84 communities islandwide over the period May 30 – June 4.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.

According to Anderson, when they posed the question: ‘Generally speaking, do you have a favourable view or do you have an unfavourable view of Portia Simpson-Miller?’ 54% of all persons interviewed responded in a positive light.

“These persons can be characterised as being more females than males, older, that is over 40 years old and from the middle and lower socio-economic groups,” said Anderson. “The profile then is very much in line with those who have shown positive tendencies towards the PNP in the previous questions in this poll.”

This positive rating, Anderson said, has to be factored against the 30% who hold an unfavourable opinion of the leader of the PNP. In addition to this, 13% either did not know really how they felt or otherwise simply had no opinion.

“Whilst this personal rating remains high, it should be noted that it is significantly lower than that which she enjoyed when she assumed office in March last year,” the pollster said.

When the same question was asked about Golding, Anderson said that 43% overall held a favourable view of the JLP leader. “Support for Golding in this regard comes mainly from males, persons under 35 years of age and those in the upper socio-economic bracket,” said Anderson. “Again, this is consistent with the profile of persons who, throughout this survey, has shown some degree of affinity for Golding and his administration.”

Said Anderson: “The incidence of persons who could not comment on Bruce Golding in this regard is 25%, somewhat more than those who could not comment on Portia Simpson Miller. It can be argued that Simpson Miller being in office was easier to evaluate and rate than a Golding in Opposition, a fact which meant there were fewer issues against which to judge his performance.”

Simpson Miller gets better approval rating than Golding

“Whilst the leaders of both of our national parties received positive ratings, Simpson Miller of the PNP received a higher performance rating than Golding,” said Anderson.

However, he noted that Simpson Miller’s approval rating has consistently fallen from the lofty heights of the immediate post-PNP election period. “Then, she enjoyed an approval rating of some 70%, according to polls conducted by us at the time,” said Anderson. “In the recent survey, 52% of all persons interviewed give Simpson Miller a positive approval rating, saying that they approve of the job she is doing as prime minister. Whilst there is this apparently strong positive approval, it should be noted that the detractors also represent a significant 35%, that is persons who do not think she is doing a good job as prime minister and who therefore disapprove of her performance.”

Anderson said that 11% of respondents said they do not know how to rate her performance and another 2% simply did not answer that question.

“In line with the level of support that has been shown by females, this is where, from a gender perspective, her approval rating is highest with 54% saying that they approve of the job she is doing. Other key segments are to be found amongst persons in the 40+ age range and amongst the poorer in the society whose cause she has consistently said she champions. 53% of this group approve of the job she is doing, compared to the 40% amongst the upper socio-economic group,” said Anderson.

Golding, on the other hand, achieved an approval rating of just under 43%, which is consistent with the level of approval rating that the Don Anderson team has found in a number of recent polls.

“Golding’s support comes mainly from males within the electorate, across all the age groups and more so amongst upper income persons,” said Anderson. “46% of the males approve of the job Golding is doing, whilst the equivalent amongst the upper income groups is 45%, compared to the lower income groups at 43%. Indeed, the approval rating of Golding is fairly consistent across all the demographic groups, suggesting a high level of broad-based support for him.”

A total of 32% of all persons interviewed, Anderson added, disapproved of the job that Golding is doing as leader of the opposition, fewer than those who disapprove of the job that Simpson Miller is doing as prime minister.

Who would do a better job as prime minister?

More persons are convinced that the incumbent Portia Simpson Miller would do a better job as prime minister than her rival Bruce Golding, the pollsters found.

When asked the question, which leader in their opinion would do a better job as prime minister, 42% of all respondents said Simpson Miller, compared to 32% who said Golding. “This 10% gap represents the biggest margin for Simpson Miller over the last eight months of polling by the Don Anderson team,” the pollsters said.

Anderson said that while the general profile of support for Simpson Miller on this measure remains basically the same, that is older persons and more of the poorer in the society, it is useful to note that the strongest acclamation (46%) comes from the very young voters – 18-24 year olds.

“In the same age category, 29% say Golding would do a better job,” said Anderson. “Strong support for Simpson Miller in this regard also comes from females, 46%, and older persons over 40 years old averaging 47%.

Of the persons interviewed, 32% feel that Golding would do a better job as prime minister. “Segments where Golding is very positively perceived as the best person to run the country at this time include persons 25-39 years and males, but strongest acclamation comes from the upper income persons in the society where 37% feel he would do a better job, compared to 28% who feel Simpson Miller would do a better job,” said Anderson.

“It is also instructive to note that 12% do not feel that either person would do a good job at this time, while another 13% really do not feel they can make a distinction between the two and ended up saying ‘I don’t know’,” said Anderson.

Which party has stronger favourable rating?

The PNP has a higher favourable rating than the JLP at this time amongst registered voters, the Anderson poll found.

According to Anderson, when asked the question, ‘Generally speaking, do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion about the JLP/PNP? 44% of all registered voters said that they have a favourable view of the PNP, compared to the 35% who hold a similarly favourable view of the JLP.

Anderson noted that in previous polls conducted by his team over the last eight months, there has been very little difference between the level of favourable views held of the two political parties. “Indeed, whilst the positive rating for Simpson Miller has been generally conceded to be better than that for Golding, there has been very little to separate the parties, leading to the notion that much would ride on the role that Simpson Miller plays in the election campaign, since the PNP itself was no better perceived than the JLP,” said Anderson.

“It should be noted then, that at the same time that the positive gap in favour of Simpson Miller has widened, so too has the gap between the respective parties, with the PNP nudging ahead on favourable ratings,” the pollsters said.

“The data further indicates that 37.2% of the registered voters have an unfavourable image of the PNP, whilst 17% have no opinion on this issue. With regard to the JLP, more persons hold negative views than do positive views. 35% say they view the JLP favourably, compared to 40% who have an unfavourable opinion and view of the party. 22% have no opinion.”