More Jamaicans say they would vote for the People’s National Party (PNP) if general elections were held now, breaking a six-month statistical dead heat in support for both the ruling party and the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), the latest Observer-commissioned Don Anderson poll has found.

According to Anderson and his team from Market Research Services Limited, when they asked the question, ‘If the national elections to elect a new government were to be held today, which of the two political parties would you vote for?’ 29% of those surveyed said they would vote for the PNP, while 25% said the JLP.

“It is the first time in some nine months that the PNP has enjoyed any lead over the JLP,” said Anderson in his analysis of the data. “The current party standings also have to be considered against the background of the pattern over the last 16 months where for the first six months after the new PM took office, the wave of popular support for her fed into positive gaps of 10 percentage points and more. So, from a position where the PNP’s popular support declined in the latter half of 2006 to a position where there was a statistical dead heat for the first five months of 2007, there appears to be some amount of resurgence.”

The poll was conducted between May 30 and June 4 in 84 communities islandwide. A total of 1,117 persons aged 18 years and over, who are registered to vote, were interviewed.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.

Anderson noted that over the last three polls conducted since November 2006, very little has separated the two main political parties in terms of the level of support they have each enjoyed.

“In polls conducted, for example in February and May of 2007, popular support for both parties was either dead even or otherwise very much within the margin of error of plus or minus 3%,” the pollster said.

“In the May poll, both the PNP and the JLP were locked at 25% each. In the February poll, the JLP had enjoyed a one percentage point advantage, with respective support levels at 26% for the JLP and 25% for the PNP. The current poll has the JLP strength unchanged, with 25% saying that they will vote for the JLP. The PNP, on the other hand, has gained four percentage points and now stands at 29%, four more than the popular support for the JLP,” said Anderson.

“An evaluation of the support for the respective parties by demographic groups shows the JLP ahead in three categories, namely amongst persons 25-29 and persons 35-39, as well as amongst upper income persons,” added Anderson. “It should be noted, however, that the positive gaps for the JLP in these segments is relatively small, 3% in the case of the 25-29 age group, less than 2% in the case of the 35-39 age group and of note just 3.5% amongst the upper income category.

“On the other hand, the PNP’s strongest support groups are females, persons in the 18-24 category, and older persons, especially those over 40 years. In the 50-59 category, for example, the positive gap for the PNP is some 18 percentage points. The PNP also enjoys the popular support advantage amongst both genders, just under 4% in the case of males and 5% in the case of females.”

Anderson also noted that registered voters were not always clear about which party they intended to vote for in the next election, as there were those who were leaning towards one party or another.

“5.5% of the electorate said that they were likely to vote for the PNP, compared to 5.9% who said that they were likely to vote for the JLP,” the pollster said. “In so far as these persons have not clearly made up their minds as to who they will vote for, they ought not to be counted amongst the confirmed support for either party, but they do show some inclination.

“It means that the body of persons who have not committed to vote in the upcoming election is still a sizeable number, representing some 34% of the total number of registered voters.”

Anderson said that the persons who, at this time, are unsure as to whether they will vote are noticeably younger persons in the 18-24 age group and, to a lesser extent, those in the 25-29 age group. “This has traditionally been the group that has been most apathetic to the electoral process and who have tended to end up not exercising their franchise,” he said.

According to Anderson, support for the PNP is based on a number of factors, principal of which is loyalty to the party, with 22% of respondents saying they intend to vote for the PNP because of their traditional connection with the party.

Other key reasons for supporting the PNP include:

They are the best party to run the country………………… 21%

The country is benefiting from their performance……….21%

They have a lady as leader, she needs a chance…………. 12%

People want to see what they have to offer……………………9%

They have the interest of the poor at heart…………………..7%

She has good leadership qualities…………………………………3%

“With regard to the JLP, where 25% say they will vote for this party, the reason driving this intention is predominantly rooted in their need for a change,” said Anderson. “Over 47% say that this is the reason they will vote for the JLP. It is, by far, the strongest single reason.

Other reasons advanced include:

They have better leadership……………………………………….18%

Traditional, always vote for them…………………………………1%

PNP has failed to move the country forward…………………9%

Want to see what they have to offer…………………………….7%

They will help the poor……………………………………………….4%

The undecideds

According to Anderson, 30% of all persons registered to vote currently fall within the category of the undecideds. This, he said, includes persons who may never vote. “They represent a significant element and a potential for shifting the balance of popular support, if the correct connection can be made to encourage them to go out to vote. In other words, if they are given a good enough reason-why to vote for one party or another.”

Anderson said that in an effort to better understand the respondents’ thinking, they were asked to indicate what were their reasons for taking the positions that they did.

“A significant number simply appear to be apathetic, with 23% refusing to answer the question as to why they were not committed one way or another,” Anderson reported. “22% said that they had no special reason, but just did not feel motivated enough to go out to vote. This represents 45% of this segment.”

Where answers were given, the following represents their reasons for seemingly staying away from the electoral process:

Neither party cares for the people………………………………… 17%

None of them doing anything for the country………………..10%

Don’t deal with politics………………………………………………….10%

Definitely not planning to vote……………………………………… 9%

Politicians cannot be trusted…………………………………………..3%

Too much corruption in the country………………………………2%

Said Anderson: “Despite their obvious reluctance to be part of the electoral process, some of them do appear to have some inclination as to which party they would give their vote to. Asked to indicate how they would vote if they changed their minds before election date, a significant number (43%) were still not sure what they would do, while 27% of these persons say that they would definitely not be voting. It is to be noted, however, that 8% said that they would vote for the PNP if they changed their minds, the same number who said they would vote for the JLP if they changed their minds.”

PNP seen as the more caring party

In answer to the question: ‘Which of the two political parties do you think cares more about the problems of people like you?’ Anderson said that 36% of all respondents pointed to the PNP, while 26% said the JLP.

“Consistent with the now accepted profile of the main supporters of the PNP, older voters tend to best reflect this position for them,” said Anderson. “What is interesting to note is that the accepted strong showing of the JLP amongst the upper income groups is not evident on this issue, as only marginally more persons in this category feel that the JLP cares more about the people than those who feel the PNP cares more.”

Total 50-59 age Upper income

% % %

JLP 26 22 26

PNP 36 46 25

Table showing which party voters feel cares more about people

Significant number feel PNP would do better job than JLP

More registered voters appear convinced that the PNP would do a better job of governing Jamaica today, the Anderson survey also found.

When the pollsters asked the question: ‘Which of the two major parties do you feel would do a better job of running the country at this time?’, Anderson said that 40.6% of all persons interviewed expressed the view that the PNP would, compared to 33.5% who said the JLP.

“The data represents a widening of the gap in the general perceptions that the electorate has of the two political parties,” said Anderson, who noted that in previous polls conducted by his team, very little separated the two parties on this measure.

“The data suggest that there is still a considerable degree of scepticism surrounding the ability of either of the two parties to efficiently and successfully manage the affairs of the nation,” said Anderson. “13%, for example, indicate that they do not feel either of the two parties would do a good job, while another 12% said they simply do not know if any of them is more capable.