BY the year 2030, the population of the largely agricultural town of Old Harbour in St Catherine is projected to increase by more than 50 per cent, which would make it Jamaica’s fastest-growing urban centre for the future.

According to statistics from the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), the town now has a population of roughly 30,000 but that is expected to rise to 55,543 by 2030 if the town grows at rates similar to those achieved between 1991 and 2001.

In 1991, there were 17,966 people residing in Old Harbour, which next to Portmore, is the fastest-growing town in St Catherine. The projections for Old Harbour are in keeping with statistics on the global increase in urbanisation – defined as the increase in the urban share of total population.

According to the 2007 report of the United Nations Development Fund on the state of the world population, by next year, more than half of the world’s human population will be living in urban centres. This translates into 3.3 billion people. By 2030, this figure is expected to swell to almost five billion.

At the launch of the report – Unleashing the Potential of Urban Growth – at Ascot Hall in Old Harbour Tuesday, chief technical adviser in the UNFPA office for the English and Dutch-speaking Caribbean, Jewel Quallo-Rosberg, highlighted some of the problems brought about by urbanisation. These, she said, included increases in poverty, crime and environmental destruction, but suggested that the phenomenon also held “great potential” for a country’s economic, social, environmental and demographic advancement.

“Urbanisation is inevitable,” the report’s introduction read, “but it can also be positive. The current concentration of poverty, slum growth and social disruption in cities does paint a threatening picture: Yet, no country in the industrial age has ever achieved significant economic growth without urbanisation.”

In developing Old Harbour as a commercial and residential district, the PIOJ said the best way to avoid some of the extreme consequences of urban growth was to strike a balance.

“To achieve a balance between the spatial distribution of the population and that of development, ie investment programmes and projects, it is necessary to ensure that the spread of the population and resources is such that it minimises the adverse effects on the environment,” said senior demographer at the PIOJ, Toni-Shae Freckleton.

Residents of Old Harbour are concerned that improper planning may cause the negative effects of the rapidly expanding urban spread to do irreparable harm to their community.

“We need to have a balance between houses and food. Providing more houses means more people. We therefore need more food… What we are noticing now is that they are using the agricultural lands to put houses, and to me it looks like they are using up all the agricultural lands. What will happen later on when we have a more increased population with little or no food?” asked president of the New Harbour Sub-Division Citizens’ Association, Ronald Steele.

Steele also voiced concerns about traffic congestion and the absence of a taxi stand in the town.

For Ann-Marie Foreman, a resident of Old Harbour Glades, the main concern was the availability of adequate water. She reported that since 2002, when she moved to the community, she has been struggling to cope with the low water pressure.

“The land, if it is used efficiently and properly can take a whole lot of houses. A number of houses can be built but the problem is with the associated amenities, for example, water. Clean, potable water is necessary for everybody… so the land and the houses is only a small part of it. Are the wells being properly utilised so that they can provide the water for the persons (coming to the area)?” Foreman queried.

In the meantime, public health nurse Marian McFarlane, who said some effects of urbanisation were already being experienced in Old Harbour, feared the problems would escalate to epic proportions.

“Some of the problems that we’re having with urbanisation (include) unplanned housing solutions in which you have improper disposal of garbage, improper disposal of human waste and overcrowding, which leads to disease conditions and crime and violence on a whole. With urbanisation, you also have a drain on the resources and traffic nightmares.

We are already experiencing these problems and (with urbanisation) we’re expecting them to escalate. I’m not against urbanisation but when you look at the negatives that it poses, you need to look at the negatives now and do forward planning in order that we don’t have devastating effects from it,” McFarlane told the Observer on Tuesday.