The ruling People’s National Party (PNP) has maintained a marginal lead over the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), the latest Observer/Don Anderson poll has shown. But the 3.5 percentage point gap in favour of the PNP is likely to be cold comfort for that party, given that 45% of the persons who say they will vote for the JLP give as their reason the need for a change of government.

Anderson and his team from Market Research Services Ltd interviewed approximately 1,096 registered voters in 87 communities islandwide between July 27 and July 30.

The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%, also found that 41% of respondents felt that Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller was the better person to lead the country, compared to 38% who favoured Opposition Leader Bruce Golding.

The party standings

Anderson said that with the August 27 election day approaching, more and more people are tending to make up their minds and decide to go out to vote.

“In February, the level of uncommitted stood at approximately 40%, with just over 52% in a position to indicate how they were likely to vote when elections were called,” said the pollsters. “With the election now less than one month away, persons who were sitting on the fence are now making up their minds. This is reflected in the fact that some 74% now feel that they are clear as to which party they will vote for. In this regard, 38.8% indicate that they will definitely vote for the PNP, compared to 35.3% who say that they will definitely vote for the JLP. This represents a 3.5 percentage points positive gap for the PNP, a slight reduction on the 4% recorded in the first Observer-Don Anderson poll conducted in late May/early July.”

Anderson said that a look at the veins of support again makes interesting reading. “The PNP’s support is mainly from the young voters 18-24, and from older persons in the older age groups 40-49 and over 60,” said the pollsters.

“The JLP, on the other hand, gets its principal support from males, persons between the ages 25 and 39 and significantly so from the upper income groups.

“In addition to those who are positively inclined one way or another in terms of current party support, another 3% are tending towards the PNP and another 2% tending towards the JLP, in that they say they will probably vote for each of these parties respectively.”

Anderson noted that in the May polls conducted for the Observer, the PNP held a 4 percentage point lead over the JLP. “From that perspective, nothing much has changed in terms of popular support, with the JLP closing the gap by less than one percentage point,” he said.

Anderson pointed to a number of other polls he had one for the CVM group, noting that when they are plotted with the current Observer groups, the pattern makes for very interesting reading and gives an indication of the closeness of the election race.

Added Anderson: “It is widely felt that the PNP has a larger core support than the JLP. When asked what were the reasons that they will vote for the PNP, tradition emerges as the number one reason, with 37% of all these persons indicating so. In other words, they have always done so and intend to do so again. Traditionalists within the PNP ranks are primarily males and older persons, as well as persons in the lower socio-economic groups. Other key reasons advanced for supporting the PNP include the feeling that the party will ensure a future for the country, echoed by 29%, and because of their love for Portia, the leader, 15% saying so.

“Reasons for supporting the JLP are largely based on the need for a change of government, one of the basic themes of the party’s strategy. 45% of all persons who say that they will vote for the JLP cite this as their reason. In addition to this factor, 26% of these supporters feel that the JLP will do a better job of governance, while 12% say they will vote for the JLP because they have always done so and are loyalists.

Simpson Miller viewed as better person to lead country

Anderson said that when they asked voters to indicate which of the two leaders is best suited to run the country at this time and who it was felt would do the better job, 41% opted for Simpson Miller, compared to 38% who opted for Golding.

“In this regard, Simpson Miller continues to hold a slight positive advantage over her rival Golding,” said Anderson.

The pockets of support for each of the leaders, the pollsters said, is worth noting. Simpson Miller gathers support from the young persons, 18-24, from persons in the 40-49 group and from older persons in the 60+ age group, as well as from the poorer in the society. Golding, on the other hand, gets his support on this measure from males, persons 25-29 and 35-39, as well as persons in the upper socio-economic group.

“It is also useful to note that over 20% of these persons interviewed either had no opinion or did not think either of the two leaders would do a good job of running the country at this time,” Anderson said.

The undecideds

The pollsters also said it was widely felt that both parties will seek to target the uncommitted because of the closeness of the election race at this time.

“This group constitutes a real core of potential supporters if the right messages can be sent and received by them,” said Anderson. “It is for this reason that we have consistently tracked their likely behaviour and the extent to which they are likely to change their minds before election. Just over 20% now fall in this category, down from some 42% six months ago. So that more and more persons are indeed making up their minds about their voting intention as the election draws near. They are primarily younger persons, in the 18-24 age group who apparently have not yet found a good enough reason to embrace the political process.”

Anderson said when they asked persons in this group to indicate their reasons for being uncommitted or unlikely to vote at this time, they gave as their key answers:

Both parties have failed 36%

Just don’t want to vote 16%

Not sure which to vote for 12%

Political system too corrupt 8%

Still have not made up their minds 7%

Not benefiting personally 4%

Level of crime too high 4%

The pollster also said they found a strong level of resistance to go out to vote, with 21% saying that they will definitely not vote regardless, another 16% saying it is very unlikely that they will change their minds, and yet another 12% saying that it is unlikely.

“In effect then, close to 50% of the persons who have not yet taken a position re their voting intention, might not be persuaded to change their minds and are likely to remain outside of the vote on election day,” said Anderson. “Where persons seemed prepared to re-look at the situation, just under 12% said they could possibly change their minds before the date.”

Among this small band of persons, Anderson added, the votes are likely to be split between the two parties, with the PNP having a really marginal edge over the JLP, with 11% saying they are likely to vote for the PNP and 10% that they are likely to vote for the JLP.