THE global economic recession could slow Jamaica’s efforts to adapt to climate change, as international project financing dries up, argue local environmental professionals.

“We recognise that with the financial crisis what it is now globally, that funding for adaptation could be adversely affected,” said Clifford Mahlung, Jamaican meteorologist and vice-chairman of the executive board of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol.

This, he explained, was expected as the economies of developed countries come under increased pressure, thereby potentially undermining their level of contributions to various funds and funding agencies.

Leonie Barnaby, senior director in the Ministry of Health and Environment, also noted the likelihood of this.

“At this time it is too early to predict the overall effect of the global economic crisis. However, one funding agency, the Global Environment Facility, has indicated that ‘the world economic crisis and the high volatility of currencies are affecting the state of (its) finances’ and that the amount expected to be available for grants may no longer be accessible,” she said in an e-mailed response to Environment Watch queries last month.

But there may be hope yet for Jamaica and other Caribbean islands which stand to be worst affected by the damaging effects of a changing climate, including livelihood loss.

“The PIOJ has indicated that for Jamaica, while we do not have a specific list of climate change projects for funding, the expectation is that there will be a positive movement in expenditure on climate change-related initiatives in the next budget,” Barnaby noted. “This is because there are a few technical assistance projects related to energy and a small UNDP grant to the Meteorological Office. A number of other projects have an indirect link to climate change.”

In addition, [provided international negotiations go as expected], there are a number of options still open to Jamaica as a country for which adaptation to climate change is critical.

One option is the Adaptation Fund, which is financed by two per cent of the proceeds from CDM projects, and from which developing countries could begin to benefit as early as next month, according to meteorologist Jeffery Spooner. Spooner, who serves on the Fund’s board, has noted elsewhere in this newspaper that they are working towards that date.

The Adaptation Fund is an option about which both Barnaby and Mahlung are optimistic.

“According to the focal point for climate change, the Meteorological Office, it is likely that there will be an increase in the number of CDM projects,” Barnaby said. “Proposals for projects for the Adaptation Fund will therefore be developed bearing in mind that there will be a call for submission of proposals later this year; proposals for other possible sources of grant funding will also be prepared.”

Still, Mahlung admits the benefits could be limited by the decline in the value of carbon credits on the market, which ultimately will determine the level of contributions to the Adaptation Fund.

“The concern here is that with the depressed financial state, the price of the CERs (certified emission reductions) will be lower than expected,” he told Environment Watch. “The market for trading carbon credits is moving from a high of nearly 50 euros per tonne to anything between 15 and 20euros. You have to monetarised and when you convert the CERS for money, the lower the rate, the less money will go into the Adaptation Fund. So it will be fewer projects that we will be able to fund from that.”

The CDM, meanwhile, is designed to facilitate the implementation of projects, financed by developing countries, in the developing world. Such projects, in turn, should address the sustainable development needs of the countries wherein they are implemented while generating emission credits that can be used by developed countries to satisfy their commitments under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Under that agreement, developed countries have pledged to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (which are fuelling global warming) by five per cent below 1990 levels.

There is also the option of the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) that Jamaica can draw on. The SCCF was set up in 2001 to finance projects relating to adaptation; technology transfer and capacity building; energy, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and waste management; and economic diversification.

But again, Mahlung is concerned that the slump in the global economy could see contributions to this fund decline.

“The contributions to that fund are pledges from developed countries. The pledges to that fund were in the region of about US$400 million in 2002. To date we have only collected about US$40 million. But countries have, over time, contributed to that fund,” he said. “It means then that with the meltdown, you could see less money going into the special climate change fund.”

Jamaica is, in the interim, one of 10 pilot countries carrying out a project for community-based adaptation (CBA) to climate change.

“Funding of US$450,000 has been granted to each of the pilot countries for eight to 10 CBA projects to be carried out by registered community-based and non-governmental organisations,” said Barnaby. “These projects are managed by the Global Environment Facility Small Grants Programme. Two projects and one planning grant amounting to US$52,000 have been approved to date in Jamaica. A second call for proposals will be issued shortly with a focus on the coastal zone and the agricultural sector.”

At the same time, Mahlung is mindful that, if things go as planned at the United Nations Climate change conference in Copenhagen, Denmark this December, additional funding windows could be open to Jamaica and other islands in the region.

“Under the Bali action plan, which we are hoping to conclude in Copenhagen at the end of this year, there are new funding sources that were identified, including a convention adaptation fund that contributions would be based on per capita emissions,” he said. “Plus there were other funding sources, including funding for the transfer of technology and for other adaptation activities, recognising that the adaptation fund would not be sufficient for funding the adaptation needs of developing countries.”