The deeply divided Islamic Republic of Iran caused by the much derided general election which brought the Opposition on to the streets in force, continues to move determinedly towards becoming an authoritarian government strongly supported by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. The Corps grows more self-sufficient each day, through involvement in various

private-sector activities characterising the elite Corps as “a law unto themselves”, responsible for a number of civilian deaths and brutality against unarmed public protesters, which continues unabated. The schism has weakened the internal state apparatus which is still determined, however, to continue its hard-line style of governance against dissidents, including use of the death penalty.

International concern with Iran’s radical and erratic behaviour may seem remote from Jamaican shores. In today’s globalised world, however, should Iran with a population of 66.5 million enter into conflict with western and other adversaries, the Middle and near East that contain the world’s largest oil resources would inevitably be drawn into the confrontation.

Consider Iran’s geographic location in the big picture, bordered by Iraq to the West, by former Soviet Russian republics of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkistan and the Caspian Sea to the north, Afghanistan bordering on the east, with Pakistan on the border to the south east, and the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman to the south, linked together by the Strait of Hormuz just 55 kilometres wide. It is through the narrow strait that oil tankers bound for the West must enter the Gulf of Oman.

As a principal oil producer with a proven reserve of 132.5 billion barrels representing 10 per cent of the world’s proven reserves, the republic is the second largest oil producer of OPEC’s 11 members, with $81.3 billion in foreign exchange reserves at the end of December 2009. Sixty per cent of Iranian oil exports of 2.7 million barrels per day, ranking number three in the world, are shipped to OECD countries that include France, Germany and the United Kingdom which oppose Iran’s uranium enrichment programme while calling for sanctions to be intensified, as it is believed the programme may be a disguise for the development of a nuclear weapon. Simultaneous with this controversial activity to produce fuel for a nuclear energy plant for electricity generation, there is the accelerated construction of a long range missile, the Shahab-6, with an estimated range of 10,000 kilometres, capable of targeting Israel.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is Israel’s foremost antagonist claiming that the holocaust is a “myth” and that Israel should be “wiped off the map”. These aggressive and provocative proclamations have incensed the Israeli state, which in turn has declared it would not tolerate the existence of a nuclear Iran. The stage is set for a cataclysmic encounter if the Islamic Republic proceeds with the development of a nuclear bomb.

The threat level heightened last month with a report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) thus: “The information available to the agency raises concerns about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile.” The report also confirmed that Iran has started enriching uranium at higher levels, theoretically bringing it closer to levels needed for making an atomic bomb. Experts say it would still take 18 to 24 months for the possible completion of an explosive device.

Speculative opinion states that Israel is losing patience with Iran’s continued intransigence regarding abandonment of its uranium enrichment programme. Israel’s record of pre-emptive strikes against neighbouring nuclear energy facilities, as in the case of Syria, lends some credence to this conjecture. Furthermore, now that US security forces are fully extended with the war in Afghanistan and Iraq, such an Israeli initiative may be more compatible with crucial American political support for such action. A retaliatory strike by Iran, surrounded by a number of warring states, would likely encourage such organisations as Hamas, Hezbollah and other labelled “terrorist organisations” to intensify their insurgent operations in the war-affected countries and particularly in the Palestinian territories. Such developments would also encourage Al Qaeda to continue widening its influence in the Middle East and globally.

In the dreaded event of such turmoil erupting, the price of oil would again soar as Iran would almost certainly cease its significant oil exports to Europe. World capital markets would react in their customary manner by plunging to new depths, seriously damaging the world economic recovery just emerging from recession. In the above meditation, Jamaica could be expected to encounter increased prices for oil and other hydrocarbon products from its main suppliers Mexico and Venezuela. Possibly happening at a time of continued economic compression, the result of increased taxation and the debt relief mechanism dubbed JDX, the effect of extraordinary oil prices, as in the past, could adversely retard domestic economic recovery which would have obvious negative consequences.

The lesson to be imparted by this meditation is that attention to short-term interests should be sharpened with particular focus on developments in the Islamic Republic. This should enable observers to take evasive action before “the balloon goes up” when irreparable damage might ensue. Last year Jamaica became a Middle East Association member in London that includes Iran, courtesy of Jamaica Trade and Invest, UK. It should be possible therefore to receive current information on developments within the zone of concern. The moral here is that “A stitch in time saves nine.”