THE country is understandably preoccupied with the modalities and implications of the ‘Dudus’ affair, but we could be overlooking an issue which is potentially even more damaging.

The Ministry of Finance, at the technical and administrative levels, is so weak that its capacity to manage the passage of the first International Monetary Fund (IMF) pact is in doubt. The number juggling of the current budget is a graphic example of the weakness of the ministry.

It is not Mr Audley Shaw’s fault, because a minister is only as good as his technocrats. But it could affect his political career. Mr Shaw cannot be Mr Nice Guy. He must demand and get competent support from his team or change the team.

Minister Shaw has had to work with a constantly changing support team. At the ministerial level, Mr Don Wehby came and left, with little difference to the operations at the finance ministry. Mr Dwight Nelson was replaced by Senator Arthur Williams who, so far, has done well in difficult circumstances but is not deployed on the finance side of the ministry.

Mr Shaw, apparently for personal incompatibility, removed with remarkable speed Mr Colin Bullock. His replacement had a most undistinguished sojourn and has unbelievably been rewarded with a lucrative job representing Jamaica at the World Bank. Not good.

Dr Wesley Hughes was transferred from the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) and his tenure has been marked by some embarrassing errors, especially the tax package of last December and the guestimates which purport to be budget figures present and future.

Civil servants in the finance ministry claim to be capable of running things and are known to be resentful of anyone who dares to question their actions and competence. They are sceptical of outside advice and technical assistance. Performance has disproved the veracity of that claim, causing Mr Shaw to have to add $4.6 billion to the budget for 2010/11. Some $2 billion in public sector salaries was an error of omission and a further $1.7 billion was an error of commission using the wrong exchange rates.

Dr Hughes cannot be blamed because he cannot do everything himself, but he will be blamed if he does not prevent further incidents. Whether the debacle is due to negligence or incompetence, Dr Hughes must immediately address these deficiencies in the staff of the ministry. Get the necessary skilled personnel from other ministries, the private sector or overseas. Corrective action is better than penning a mea culpa.

The post of director-general of the PIOJ remains unfulfilled and some have suggested that Dr Hughes should return there. Mr Derick Latibeaudiere became unaffordable and has been replaced by Mr Brian Wynter as governor of the central bank. Mr Wynter is doing an excellent job but does not yet have a contract.

Mr Shaw’s team consists of PIOJ and BOJ with acting heads and a weak ministry that messed up the tax package and miscalculated the budget figures. This gives us serious cause for concern about the Government’s economic management in these perilous times. If the finance ministry cannot get the budget figures correct, what confidence can we have in passing the first IMF test? Dr Hughes must strengthen his team quickly to preserve his long career and avoid further collateral damage.

If the Ministry of Finance does not remedy its deficiencies, then the Government is involved in Russian roulette with two bullets — ‘Dudus’ and the first IMF test.