For the foreseeable future, we will all be operating in a tri-polar globe dominated by the United States, the European Union and China.

China is forecasted to become the world’s largest economy in 20 years. The rise towards economic dominance, along with its culture, gigantic population and enormous military prowess, featuring nuclear weapons and the largest army in the world, will ensure that China’s influence and power in international politics increase dramatically.

By its sheer size and phenomenal growth, China has already started, and will continue to seriously affect the economics, politics and culture of the world. This development will have implications for Jamaica’s exports, imports, foreign investment, aid and tourism.

As China’s economy grows and becomes more integrated into the global economy, it is not only a major destination for direct foreign investment but is emerging rapidly as a source of foreign direct investment especially in developing countries, and particularly in energy and raw materials.

There may also be opportunities for Chinese foreign investment tourism, construction, infrastructure, education and health care. Chinese firms are being encouraged by both their own government and those of the Caribbean to examine investment prospects in the region.

Complant International of China has been selected from a shortlist of bidders to begin negotiations to purchase the three remaining government sugar estates — Frome, Moneymusk and Bernard Lodge — for J$774 million. Complant will also lease some 18,000 hectares of cane lands yielding J$54.6 million per annum from lease payments, and it will take over full operation of the estates at the end of the 2010/2011 crop year. The company will also explore the feasibility of building a new sugar refinery.

The Government of Jamaica is in discussions for the sale of its 45 per cent stake in the Clarendon Alumina Production Limited (CAP) plant to Chinese company Zhuhai Hongfan. Belatedly Minister Samuda has gone to genuflect in the new “Mecca” of foreign investment. While there he should be promoting our exports and tourism.

China has increased its development assistance to Jamaica, focusing resources on large, highly visible infrastructure projects, such as the construction of a community-based stadium in Sligoville and the building of the Trelawny multi-purpose stadium.

The Chinese Government is also providing funding for the Montego Bay Convention Centre in the amount of US$45.2 million at a concessionary rate of interest. Jamaica also benefited from the receipt of a loan of US$400 million for road construction and repairs. They will be constructing the new Ministry of Foreign Affairs at the Kingston waterfront.

Jamaican exporters are not adequately exploiting opportunities for exporting high valued products such as coffee and rum, and mass market consumer items such as sugar, fish (dried, smoked or frozen), lobster, and shrimp. There are also several market niches which can be exploited, for example, the organised export of scrap metal which has become a sizeable industry in Jamaica.

China is also expected to become the world’s fourth largest source of tourists by 2020, generating 100 million outbound tourists each year, according to the World Tourism Organisation. Chinese visitor arrivals to Jamaica are extremely small — 976 in Jamaica in 2006 when total arrivals was 1,678,905, with 55 per cent staying in private homes.

Jamaicans need to seriously start looking east, to China.