A day after Immediate past president of the Jamaica Bakers Association Gerry Chambers forecasted that flour prices should remain stable until at least year end, the Consumer Affairs Commission is advising that come Monday consumers will pay as much as 17.8 per cent more for counter flour and 11.8 per cent more for baking flour.

In an advisory yesterday, the CAC said the price increases are a result of natural disasters and other external situations being experienced by key international producers, which have placed a pressure on wheat supply. These, it said, included:

* The late wheat crop in Canada and the United States — which has affected supplies of wheat for counter flour;

* The extended drought and fires in Russia, which has negatively impacted wheat supply for bakery flour; and

* An expected increase in the demand for wheat by India, which is the largest net importer of that product.

Speaking with the Observer on Wednesday following announcements that the price for chicken meat would go up by as much as 10 per cent as the cost of grain continues to rise in the United States, Chambers had said that the flour company should have enough stock in store to last until the end of December.

“I don’t think we will have flour price increase before the end of the year, but we don’t know what will happen after January,” he told the Observer at the time.

But yesterday, in the in the aftermath of the announcement of the price hikes, Chambers said he was somewhat taken aback by the “significant” leap.

“The increase is very steep, but we will have to live with it,” he told the Observer. He, however, said it was his personal opinion that bakers were not quite ready for a price increase at this time.

Meanwhile the CAC said that it had “been assured that the imminent price increases are entirely as a result of supply pressures on the world market for wheat, rather than any increase in the local manufacturing cost of producing flour”.

The CAC explained that based on its calculations, the increase by the Jamaica Flour Mills is likely to result in a six to eight per cent movement in the price of baked products such as bread and water crackers.

Also, the Flour Mills has indicated that it will be announcing a decrease of rice prices of between 2.5 to 4.5 per cent. This, it said, has been possible as rice supplies have not been subject to the same markets conditions as wheat. Furthermore, it said there are adequate supplies on the world market.

Yesterday, the CAC said its next Consumer Alert will reflect the price changes. The commission also said that it will continue to monitor the situation for price abuses associated with the increase in flour prices as well as to see that consumers benefit from the price reduction associated with rice.