The quest for EU accession is a driving force today in the western Balkans. This enabled the eventual arrest, albeit belated, of the elusive indicted war criminal General Ratko Mladic. The capture will likely be characterised as a triumph of carrot and stick diplomacy, now also referred to as wine and vinegar.

Beyond Mladic’s trial at the Hague Tribunal on Yugoslavia (ITFY), the prospects for civil society and stability are elusive in this region still plagued by uncertainties generated by latent nationalist sentiments, sectarian divisions, corruption, and uneven economic growth.

One would imagine that the capture of Mladic would be a welcome development in Serbia. But in the Balkans events often defy logic.

Now Serbia’s President BorisTadic will likely face demonstrations of Chetnik nationalists, as will Serb leader Milorad Dodik of the Entity called Republika Srpska – the other Entity being the Croatian-Bosniac Federation – in bifurcated Bosnia Herzegovina, a construct created by the Dayton Peace Accords.

The expectation is the region will eventually breathe a collective sigh of relief as it eventually did when Radovan Karadzic was captured in New Belgrade, a short distance from the Chinese embassy that was hit a few years earlier by NATO air strikes during the skirmish over secessionist Kosovo, now independent.

In 1989-1992 many Serbs had struggled actively to get rid of Slobodan Milosevic who was later deposed and dispatched to face the Hague Tribunal. In their view, Milosevic was largely responsible for the dissolution of Yugoslavia, and to a lesser extent Slovene Milan Kucan, Croat Franjo Tudjman, and Bosnian muslim Alija Izetbegovic.

Milosevic died before the tribunal was able to render a verdict. So even today a significant minority of Serbs in Serbia and abroad refuse to hold Milosevic entirely responsible for the atrocities that occurred when he was president of Serbia. They still reminisce over the good old days of Marshall Tito, leader of the Non-Aligned Movement, who died in 1980.

Current EU and NATO policy is to foster change in the region that will engender democratic practices. This would be one of the preconditions on the steep steps toward acceptance into the EU.

And the capture of Mladic would assuage the relatives of Muslim victims of the massacre at Srebenica, uphold respect for human rights, and send a strong message to perpetrators of “crimes against humanity” that they also will inevitably be brought to justice in appropriate tribunals such as ITFY and the ICC.

Bin Laden’s redoubt was located so it became imperative that Mladic’s be found. Failure to turn him over would have stymied Belgrade’s chances to gain eventual EU accession. And that is still not guaranteed by his arrest.

In fact, a Russian initiative to form an entente with like-minded “near abroad” states is still on the table and may be a path that Serbia may consider, given the tough conditions set by the EU. Turkey can attest to that.

Further, Dodik threatens periodically to withdraw from Bosnia’s cumbersome unitary governmental structure and solidify links with Serbia. This is a recipe for disaster and could lead to NATO intervention again.

So Mladic’s arrest has multiple implications – some could arouse latent animosities in the region.

The international community and the Obama administration should keep a keen eye on the aftermath of Mladic’s arrest in the event the situation goes awry.

The Balkans is still a precarious neighbourhood. And the revelations at Mladic’s trial could be quite revealing if his health permits.

Earle Scarlett was political officer in the US Embassy in Belgrade in the run-up to Yugoslavia’s dissolution. Subsequently, in Belgrade he was deputy head of the Sanctions Regime against Bosnian Serbs, and later political adviser in Sarajevo to the first High Representative Carl Bildt for the civilian implementation of the Dayton Peace Accords. He lives in Atlanta and teaches periodically Balkans Affairs at the University of Bologna, Italy.

saintaubinscarlett@diplomats.com