THIS time next year, the country will be in full party mode: We will be only a month away from the 50th anniversary of Independence; furious debates about excessive government spending on the festivities and grumbling about Prime Minister Bruce Golding using the celebrations to help his re-election would have simmered down as the party vibes kick in.

The national colours will be on prideful display, as will be our rich cultural heritage in food, fashion, music, dance, drama and the visual arts. Our intellectuals may even surprise us with some thoughtful reflections on the past 50 years and help us to envision a future demonstrably better than the past.

Of course, the country will still owe the International Monetary Fund (IMF) more than we can comfortably pay back; good-paying jobs will still be hard to find; there will still be a struggle for the best places in high schools and, for many, the JPS light bill will still be a heavy burden. But ‘bruck’ pocket cannot stop a party; just pump up the volume.

The Independence party will merge seamlessly into the hype over the London Olympic Games where, if the pundits are to be believed, Jamaica should win even more medals than the record haul at Beijing in 2008.

We already know that the men’s 100 metre final has earned the distinction of most eagerly anticipated contest as the world contemplates new superlatives to define Usain Bolt. The organisers have more than one million applications for the relatively few seats available. Talk about star power!

But while I too look forward to the event with great expectation, the race that I am watching for 2012 is the undeclared one between our prime minister and our head of state, Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II.

Recall that Mr Golding recently said that we Jamaicans should give ourselves a 50th anniversary present by terminating the monarchical link to Buckingham Palace and the heirs and successors to Queen Elizabeth II and establish ourselves as a republic with our own native Jamaican head of state who would — presumably — be a citizen of Jamaica only. He has had enough dual citizenship shenanigans.

Speaking in the 2011-2012 Budget debate in April, Mr Golding said: “Transforming Jamaica from a monarchical to a republican state means no disrespect, and must not be interpreted in this way.”

Added the prime minister: “I have long believed that if I am to have a queen, it must be a Jamaican queen; I would not wish to see us celebrate 50 years of Independence without completing that part of our ‘sovereignisation’, for want of a better word.”

We know that the Government and Opposition agreed sometime ago to work towards putting in place certain constitutional arrangements, including replacing the Queen as head of state, before Jamaica turns 50. Will it happen? Or will the plan become a victim of time and circumstances?

There can be no clear answer; however, it is clear that it cannot happen unless Mr Golding invests substantial political capital in driving the effort; and it is also clear that he is running short on this vanishing political asset.

The Queen takes poll position

Ready or not, though, the race is on: A Gleaner-Bill Johnson poll (Gleaner June 28) reported that 60 per cent of Jamaicans held the view that the country would have been better off had we remained under British rule rather than going the route of political independence from the United Kingdom in 1962. Only 17 per cent said the country would be worse off, while 23 per cent said they did not know.

The poll also found that 44 per cent believe that Jamaica should retain the Westminster style of government, with 35 per cent favouring a republic and 21 per cent answering ‘don’t know’ to the question.

This sampling of public opinion shows that Her Majesty has taken poll position, putting Mr Golding at a disadvantage because they show that he will have to convince many voters to change their position in order to make the transition to republican status, something that has been on and off the political agenda since Michael Manley was prime minister in the 1970s.

As someone who came to maturity in the twilight of the colonial era, who experienced the inequalities, indignities and discriminations of the period, I know that the ‘good old days’ were not good for the black majority at the bottom of the social ladder. Opportunities were much fewer than they are today. So I have no desire to go back there.

Now, according to our population data, a majority of Jamaicans alive today were born after Independence. This raises the question: Why do so many have a hankering for colonial rule and a distant monarch?

I don’t think the answer lies in nostalgia for an unknown. Instead, it has to do with deep disappointment with the experience of Independence and the underperformance of successive governments. Indeed, many of the inequities of the colonial era remain.

We do not need to recite the many countries starting from a similar place as us five decades ago that are way ahead of us now.

And, in case, we have forgotten what to do, the World Bank has given us a timely reminder in a 305-page memorandum entitled Unlocking Growth, which identifies crime, deficient human capital, (read education underachievement) and fiscal distortions (read unfair tax burdens) as our endemic problems.

Why have we not done better? One reason is that we do not do well at long-term issues requiring long-term fixes. But, just as in athletics where we are not good at long-distance running, so is it in governance where successive administrations have little interest in seeing development as a marathon, which is exactly what it is. It is not a sprint from election to election as governments think.

Indeed, the very notion of republicanism as a 50th anniversary gift, announced a few months ahead of the due date, betrays our short-term mentality. Where are the time and resources to engage the population in a meaningful discussion on what is proposed and how it will make their lives better?

As we celebrate we will talk about the impact that Jamaicans have made on the world. But we also need to ask ourselves what it is about living abroad that enables so many of our people do well. The answer is not about resources, but different approaches to governance, accountability, and an ability to work through the natural partisanship to reach consensus on what is truly important.

Anyway, 2012 is election year. My guess is that the prime minister will be working hard at correcting some other poll numbers that came out last week.

According to the Gleaner-Johnson polls, 68 per cent believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, and 69 per cent list jobs and unemployment as their main concern, down from 54 per cent who felt that way in August 2007 just before Mr Golding took over.

He will want to change those numbers to give himself a good chance at retaining occupancy of Jamaica House.

The PNP, eying its own chances of changing the tenancy, will show that the economy has not improved under Mr Golding. It will also argue that his handling of the Coke extradition matter renders him unfit to lead.

Given Portia Simpson Miller’s repeated emphasis that the issue has created a huge ‘trust deficit’ between the two sides, I do not expect the kind of bipartisan co-operation necessary for constitutional reform.

In these circumstances, I am putting my money on the Queen as an odds-on favourite to retain the constitutional status quo. This pains me, as this is one race where I would dearly love to see Bruce in the winner’s enclosure. kcr@cwjamaica.com