Dear Editor,

Several polls have emerged in recent months on the standing of the two major parties, with respect to the views of the electorate. At least three polls have been posted, all showing varying degrees of lead that the PNP holds over the governing Labour Party, with the one perceived to be most credible and accurate, CVM/Don Anderson poll, showing the Opposition ahead by an astonishing 22 percentage points. Really now!

Political parties the world over tend to react to poll results in the public domain based on how the numbers are stacked for or against them, but privately they know that the results are by no means a scientific or definitive prediction of an election outcome, particularly one due up to 15 months ahead. To zero in on the false perception being sold by these local polls, a 22-percentage point lead or suggested margin of victory, if an election is called now, would amount to the PNP having a massive landslide victory, probably securing no fewer than 50 of the available 63 parliamentary seats. What nonsense is this and so far removed from reality? This is why I pay very little attention to local polls.

Anyone with on-the-ground knowledge of our political landscape would agree that the 2012 general election will be extremely close, barring some calamitous happenings against either party between now and when Bruce “fly di gate”. I would like the pollsters to explain to me and the public how this massive lead (on paper) will translate into victorious parliamentary seats (in reality). Based on the PNP’s margin of lead in your poll, it could be discerned that up to 20 of the 32 government seats will be lost to the Opposition, and you and I know that’s impossible. My own layman assessment of the 32 JLP seats is that at least 27 are almost sure to be retained. There is the likely possibility that about 25 of the PNP’s 28 seats are secured. The remaining 11 seats will be up for grabs and will be a political dogfight down to the bitter or sweet end.

My advice to both parties is to pay little attention to the results of these polls doing the rounds. Poll results can be manipulated. You can pre-determine your poll result by structuring your questions in a particular way, choosing the appropriate moment in time and carefully selecting a composition of certain demographic samples and you will achieve the results you want. The JLP should therefore get on with the business of running the affairs of the country. Jobs, jobs, jobs and set the economy on track, as well as learn and move beyond the immense foul-up of the Manatt/Dudus affair.

The PNP should begin to sell its alternative to the public, put its intended policies forward so the Jamaican electorate can have a choice and make an intelligent and informed decision at the polls. The Opposition needs to stop running to the mountain top and shouting “Manatt, Manatt, Manatt”. That exhausted strategy (and the false sense of security in these polls) will not guarantee a return to power. Finally to the PNP, please release your promised (from 2008) “Progressive Agenda”. Having seen what the JLP can do, we need to sieve through your planned polices so the voters can decide on the issues in 2012 (August).

Richard Patterson

richie2sweet@yahoo.com