RESPECTED local coach Geoffrey Maxwell has tipped Humble Lion and Highgate as potential spoilers in this season’s National Premier League (NPL), but thinks Tivoli Gardens will repeat as champions.

The new-look NPL got underway yesterday with a full slate of matches and, once again, the battle for championship honours look set to be dominated by teams from the Kingston and St Andrew Football Association (KSAFA).

Corporate Area sides have won 11 of the last 14 championships, with the other three titles going to South Central Confederation outfit Portmore United.

“The KSAFA dominance will continue, in my mind, for maybe the next three to five years,” Maxwell said.

“These teams are dominating because they have sponsorship, which has made a big difference for them.

“What the sponsorship dollar does is allow players to be more comfortable and committed. It has also helped the teams to attract the better players, with quite a few of the top players from the western belt coming into Kingston to play for the top teams,” the former national coach added.

Maxwell, however, believes that clubs in the rural area are now starting to take the necessary steps towards closing the gap — citing the re-branding of former champions Seba United to Montego Bay United FC as a positive step.

“The critical mistake that western teams made is that they did not plan for five or six years ahead of when they were in power,” the former Seba United coach said.

“They kept the senior players too long and when it was time to replace them the better young players weren’t in the area anymore, they were now playing in Kingston.

“It’s things like this that have made the western belt stagnant.

“But now, they have a new philosophy with Montego Bay United, which is interesting,” he said. “When you go into that direction sponsors should definitely want to grab a piece of the cake because it’s now projecting tourism and an identity once again for football in western Jamaica.”

So, while rural Jamaica continues its rebuilding process this year, Maxwell sees Tivoli possibly claiming title number six, but not without stiff competition from KSAFA counterparts Boys’ Town, Waterhouse and Harbour View.

“When I look at the overall picture, I think Tivoli can repeat based on a couple of players, who might be coming in and can help to boost their offencee and also the midfield area,” he said.

“I recently watched a game between Boys’ Town and Humble Lion and was very impressed with the Boys’ Town unit. They have pace, aggression and looked very impressive, but that’s the Boys’ Town of every year.

“You have Harbour View, who will always play well because they have a good club structure and youth programme in place, and of course, the likes of Waterhouse are also going to be up there (with the chasing pack).

“But, based on what I have seen, Tivoli have the potential to repeat,” the much travelled Premier League coach reiterated.

Of the five KSAFA teams turning out this season, former three-time champions Arnett Gardens seem less likely to mount a serious title challenge.

For the past four seasons, the ‘Junglists’ have been going through an uncharacteristic renaissance — first losing their elite status, while battling to avoid relegation at the lower half of the table.

During this period of uncertainty, Arnett failed to retain a coach for more than a season and have also been criticised for not bringing through enough young talents.

However, things now appear to be taking a turn for the better, with coach Paul ‘Tegat’ Davis returning for a second season at the Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex.

And having saved them from relegation last year, Davis now seems to be growing nicely into his role.

The former national player has introduced a number of new and promising young players to the team, who have since repaid him by lifting the Claro/KSAFA Champions League in pre-season.

Maxwell, also a former Arnett coach, thinks this latest success can be viewed as a sign of things to come, adding that the public could well see a revival of vintage Arnett Gardens this season.

“Like the western teams, Arnett just weren’t planning effectively with their feeder programme. The transition was too slow,” he said.

“But, I think this year they could be one of the teams to watch.

“In Tegat they have someone who understands how to coach in a community-based structure, he has done well by winning the first trophy of the season and is the type of person who players will react to because he also did well as a player; he’s like a (hero) to them.”

Portmore — based on their pedigree — are, perhaps, the only non-KSAFA team capable of posing a realistic threat to the defending champions.

Their last two league finishes may, however, suggest that they are yet to recover from losing the 2008/2009 title to Tivoli on the last day of the season.

Maxwell reasoned: “Portmore did very well by winning the league sometime ago and sold a number of senior players because, like Harbour View, they tend to generate a lot of funds from selling players. They also parted company with the likes of (Anthony) Modeste, who was the main brain in their defence.

“They then invested heavily in their Under-21 team, which is really a fantastic programme, but those players, over the last three years, don’t seem to be maturing enough to challenge for the title.

“Portmore just have not being able to replace the more technically mature players, who were the match winners for them, so that transition … is not going to be ready for maybe another one to two years.

“Unless they have about three senior players, who can lift the team, they might again end up in the top-six, but more in mid-table,” he opined.

Maxwell is also expecting promoted teams Highgate and MoBay FC to defy the perennial predictions of being red-hot relegation favourites and may well go on to exceed expectations.

“I don’t think these teams will be looked at as relegation bound as we have seen in the past,” he said. “If the reports are factual then the quality of the two teams should be very high.

“Highgate is a team that a lot of people might not know much about and could be a surprise package. A lot of players from the central area have joined them and you also have two or three players from the Portland area who have gone over to (St Mary), so they could have what we classify as a ‘star-studied’ bunch.

“But again, sometimes having the better players don’t guarantee you a trophy, it’s all going to come down to how good or strong the coach is because when you have so many quality players in one team it creates a lot of friction. The coach has to be in control and put his ideas into practice.

“So, you might have a Highgate that could come from nowhere and win the league, but at the same time you could have a Highgate that could self-destruct,” the former Excelsior High School past student added.

As for the new-look MoBay FC outfit: “I think they should do very well and, consequently, the other teams within the western belt could suffer because you will have players moving around, wanting to join them,” the former Village and Reno United coach told the Observer.

“But the key factor, more than anything else will depend on how well they plan their season,” said Maxwell.

“What the promoted clubs, particularly Highgate (who are debutants), have to do is sit down with people who know what the Premier League is about and plan their season round by round.

“Usually, most of these new clubs don’t do that, they are so excited about being in the League that they forget about the little important details and that’s where they usually crash.”

The other team Maxwell thinks could be knocking at the door of success this season are Humble Lion. “They could be the team to watch this year,” he said.

“In talking to (coach) Lenny Hyde he thinks this could be the year for them because he feels more confident now that they have grown with a little bit more maturity.”

But Maxwell reckons any success Humble Lion and Highgate will or will not have this term could be dependent on how well they play at home.

“A lot of these teams tend to play better on the road because of the pressure that comes to them at home,” the veteran tactician said.

“So on the road points are going to be crucial for teams like Humble Lion and Highgate because playing at home the expectation is so high that there is a massive pressure that comes to the players, not so much the coach.

As for the teams to face relegation this year, Maxwell said there are no clear favourites.

“With these particular 12 teams, it’s very difficult to pin-point two clubs that are going to be relegation-bound like last year where we had a dog-fight between Benfica, St Georges, Sporting and Humble Lion.

“However, I would not be surprised that possibly one of the top-seven teams from last year may well face relegation.”