Like an armada, political pundits and prognosticators have been sailing up and down the country’s political shores prematurely calling the results for the next general election; never mind that the date for the election has not yet been announced. Obviously, they must be looking through political crystal balls because some have even gone as far as to predict a repeat of the 1980 electoral landlside for the Jamaica Labour Party; all of this is coming on the heels of Andrew Holness’s elevation to the coveted position of party leader and prospective prime minister.

Interestingly, in the stampede to make all kinds of wild predictions and to place false festoons on Holness’s hibiscus tree, some people seem to have forgotten that a week is a long time in politics. Sometimes, the political smoke is bigger than the fire and the sweet aroma it carries can suffer sudden death. Everybody should “hold their horses” because the track is not ready and politics is as predictably odd as it is unpredictably weird.

Paradoxically still, nothing happens in politics by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way – bombshells and pretences notwithstanding. Therefore, it would be naive to assume that the 73-year old People’s National Party, which is not headed by political neophytes, would sit idly by and risk being chafed by the coarseness of its own miscalculations and misreading of the political tea leaves, which were pointing to an imminent leadership change in the JLP and to some other game-changing announcements, as it plans its campaign strategy. Moreover, political parties, the PNP included, build their strategies around well-developed and defined “perception grids” – mostly of the main target – which include indepth personality trait analysis.

Armed with these tools and a remarkably solid political history, the PNP would have known what to expect from Golding. It would have also known that the degree of difficulty surrounding its thrust to regain political power would increase exponentially when the prime target is taken out of the equation and the relatively younger and affable Andrew Holness is added. In the final analysis, and amidst all the hype and anxiety surrounding the JLP leadership swop, “it ain’t over until the fat lady sings”. Therefore, it may be wise to delay the political requiems because the PNP is anything but dead.

Furthermore, we have had many political Lazaruses in the past and we will most certainly have some in the future. We should learn to be less precipitate in declaring defeat or victory because, to paraphrase Prince Buster, like cats, politicians have 99 lives, and although you “pick ‘im up, you lick ‘im down, im bounce right back; what a hard man fi dead”. That said, sometimes it appears we are helplessly devoted to, and are in love with forgetting our political history – however useful remembering certain events could be in guiding future actions.

For, it wasn’t so long ago; in fact it was in 2006, that Portia Simpson Miller created history when she became the first PNP president and woman prime minister. The euphoria that surrounded her elevation to party president was palpable and her favourability rating topped the charts. Every opinion poll conducted immediately following her rise pointed to a landslide victory for the PNP and that made her appear more invincible than she really was. Even Bruce Golding remarked, “If Portia calls the election now she would probably win the West Kingston seat”. Still, after the dust settled, it was Bruce Golding’s JLP that won the 2007 elections, albeit by the slimmest of margins. But, as my late father used to say, “Politics is just like show business; you have a hell of an opening, coast for a while, and then have a hell of a close.”. The word “hell” in this saying is a fiddly political double entendre.

But even before Portia’s rise, when Michael Manley announced his retirement in 1992, five people were identified as possible successors to Manley. Yet the late illustrious Professor Carl Stone wrote, “Patterson is by far the weakest of the alternatives. If he were to get the leadership of the PNP, Seaga would chew him up at the polls.” Well, as accurate as the goodly professor had always been, as things turned out, Mr Patterson did all the political “chewing up” between 1993 and 2002. Interestingly, but more meaningfully, Mr Patterson himself, responded in a subsequent interview with the Gleaner, “I don’t believe that anybody in the JLP feels that PJ Patterson is easy game.” Advisedly, no one should think that either Portia or Andrew will be easy game.

Undoubtedly, both parties are being counselled by seasoned political strategists, but they would be well advised to make the next election less about the “target” and more about the goal. Going after the target may appeal to those on the political fringes and could excite the base. However, if the focus is directed towards the goal – the goal being whatever is in the best interest of Jamaica – the task of governance, post-election, could be easier. I say this because the election would centre on issues and experience. Both parties would be able to tell voters the truth about the state of our economy and country and about the solutions they can provide.

When all is said, it would be a sad day for our country, were we to make the next election about majoring in the minor or peripheral issues at the expense of fundamental ones. If we are to benefit from a truly enlightened democracy, it cannot be about the foolishness of who is younger than whom, or who is “nicer” than whom; it must be about policies and vision. There are many sacred cows that the next government will have to take on. I speak here of pension, constitutional, tax and public sector reforms, restructuring the education and labour systems, restoring values and attitudes and driving long-term economic development and growth, all occurring simultaneously, as we redefine the role of the Jamaican state, not only as a lame facilitator, but as an active implementer.

Burnscg@aol.com