Dear Editor,

As pundits discuss an early election two sayings come to mind:

(a) Look before you leap. (b) In love, war, sport and politics, don’t believe your own propaganda.

Conventional wisdom says an early election helps the JLP because of the perceived “bounce” of a new and young Andrew Holness. At least four considerations suggest otherwise: (1) The “bounce” may not be big enough. (2) It may have already been undermined by the new leader’s declaration to pursue the same policies with the same team. (3) It would appear that he is not the dynamic speaker or charismatic figure that Jamaicans quickly gravitate to. (4) Such a strategy depends largely on the PNP continuing to miss the trick of not spelling out loud and clear before the election announcement why it feels 2012 could be such a difficult year that the JLP must call an early election.

Holness might still be unfamiliar to many voters and lacks the background of achievements or experience that preceded the elevation of all our previous prime ministers to the top job. Going to the polls now is perhaps asking voters to vote for “a puss in a bag”. He will be a rookie party leader going up against a seasoned, confident, vastly improved and increasingly smooth Portia Simpson Miller at the top of her game. All he offers is the hype of “youth” and the one area in which the JLP can credibly claim that it has clearly outperformed the PNP: JDIP road repairs. To rural voters road repairs carry more resonance than governance, corruption, transparency, Dudus/Manatt and all those issues that Kingston folk and the media consider so important.

Just as Portia might have blundered in 2007 when she allowed herself to be pressured in calling the re-set date before she had delivered, and recipients cashed every last hurricane relief cheque (she lost by fewer than 3,000 votes). It would be a blunder for Holness to call an election before every last JDIP road and bridge was repaired, every last Olympic medal won and every last 50th anniversary drink consumed. Taking the JLP to the polls now looks ominously like leading “The Charge of the Light Brigade”.

Errol WA Townshend

Scarborough, Ontario

Canada

ewat@rogers.com