The first in what is certain to be a plethora of opinion polls was released last week by the RJR Group. The poll showed the Jamaica Labour Party with a 2.5 per cent lead over the People’s National Party among enumerated voters. The lead, though substantially within the four per cent margin of error, is significant given that it was only six months ago that the same polling organisation showed the PNP with an 11-point lead. But even though the RJR Group poll is consistent with other polls, the 2.5 percentage lead is not insurmountable and may be insufficient for the JLP to project electoral invincibility by calling early elections. Then again, political risk-aversion could also prove catastrophic in an environment where global economic happenings could alter the domestic political landscape.

That notwithstanding, it seems that both the JLP and the PNP are in catch-22 positions, insofar as their political fortunes are concerned. On the one hand, the JLP appears to have gained some momentum and has plenty money going into the next elections. The PNP, on the other hand, has the mobilisation edge, but is woefully short on message and money. Still, both parties need all three things to pull off a convincing victory that would enable the winner to make tough post-election decisions, particularly within the context of our spiraling $1.6-trillion debt.

For while the JLP is now in the lead and is awash with cash, the latest poll did not identify or quantify the value or sustainability of Andrew Holness’s bounce, and was silent on the factors that led to the elimination of the PNP’s lead. Supplemental to that, the more voters hear Mr Holness defend Golding’s actions, the more likely they are to be turned off by the inherent hypocrisy in the JLP’s strategy of presenting Mr Holness as “young and different”. This could eventually increase Holness’s political negatives and mitigate any prospects of a JLP victory. If the JLP begins to read the political tea leaves correctly, it should encourage Holness to “tek wey ‘imself” and campaign as his “own man”.

The PNP, on the other hand, ought to be more than mildly concerned with its performance in the latest RJR Group poll; the party should be extremely disappointed by the 3.5 percentage point dip in support. Undoubtedly, political parties do not “hug up” declines in electability trends by pretending it does not exist, which is exactly what the PNP seems to be doing by claiming not to be surprised. In a sense, the PNP’s response reminds me of something Rosalyn Carter said: “Don’t worry about political polls, but if you do, don’t admit it.” The PNP’s failure to maintain or increase its standing in this latest poll, says something very troubling about the party’s campaign and election strategy. It says that the PNP is static. This observation is irrefutable, given the PNP’s abject failure to exploit the tremendous loss of goodwill, confidence, and credibility that has dogged the JLP since 2007, and the party’s inability to convert them into political assets.

Instead, the PNP’s political model seems to be working contrary to its own organisational objectives and until someone steps up and demands a complete shift in attitude, message and focus, the party is bound to face electoral defeat – no translation needed, to quote my brother Joseph. Quite frankly, I do not know how to, or why anyone should take the party seriously at times. Take the grandiosity that heralded the launch of the PNP’s Progressive Agenda for instance; one would have thought that by now, the party would have been all over Jamaica selling the Progressive Agenda and explaining it to Jamaicans. But alas, it appears to have suffered sudden death because not even the party leader appears confident or passionate enough about the principles enshrined therein to throw it over her shoulders and proclaim its virtues from atop Spur Tree Hill.

Yet, it is not only the abandonment of the Progressive Agenda that could make the PNP appear stagnant. Its refusal to explain the rationale behind the National Intervention Programme (NIP) and its unwillingness to tell Jamaicans how it would implement and finance its flagship programmes such as the Jamaica Emergency Employment Programme (JEEP) and the Audio Visual Intervention Scheme (AVIS) are politically counter-intuitive. The PNP has left it up to veteran journalists like Ian Boyne and Ken Chaplin and opinion writers like Claude Robinson and me to promote JEEP. It is stunning, that no one from the leadership, including the president, has sought to defend or explain the initiative beyond conference. JEEP is a darn good concept; the PNP should be selling it, for heaven’s sake; its potential as an economic game-changer is enormous.

But if you think the PNP’s silence on JEEP is bad, then listen to the party president’s unwise and mindboggling defence of why the party is holding onto policy details, at a time when voters need details. According to Mrs Simpson Miller, “We (PNP) will not give them (JLP) any ideas, until after the elections”, as if the PNP is monarch of all it surveys and lord of the fowls and the brute. It is the height of inanity for the PNP to suggest that if it reveals its plans the JLP will steal them – Holy Mackerel! The truth is, Jamaica is bigger than that, the country’s future does not belong to the PNP, nor does it depend on the singular effort of Andrew Holness; it belongs to all of us. Therefore, no political party should deny voters the opportunity to examine policy options ahead of elections.

We know that political parties are in the business of gaining power and that it is through the acquisition of state power that they are most likely to make changes, and as such, a certain level of secrecy and political pragmatism must govern their operations. However, message is important in attracting money and both are necessary in designing mobilisation strategies. Now, more than ever, Jamaica is facing a serious economic crisis – a crisis that requires honest and meaningful articulation of policy prescriptions from our leaders. Failure to promote cogent strategies, bankable ideas and powerful messages will just not cut it, period.

Burnscg@aol.com