OF the 828 communities across the country, the sprawling suburb of Portmore in St Catherine has been ranked the most at risk to the effects of extreme disasters, with a vulnerability score of 1922.

Portmore is followed by Lucea, Hanover, which has a score of 288; downtown Kingston, on 284; the Savanna-la-Mar business district, Westmoreland, with 221; and Riverton City, Kingston, which scored 192.

The St Andrew capital, Half-Way-Tree, is in sixth position, with 190 points, while New Kingston, with an equal score, is seventh. Interestingly, Port Royal, a section of which was submerged in the great earthquake of 1692, holds the 20th spot with 88 points.

This is according to geographic information system (GIS) data calculated and compiled by the Mona GeoInformatics Institute (MGI) at the University of the West Indies (UWI). It was presented at a public forum at the PCJ Auditorium on Tuesday, which was hosted by the Build Better Jamaica (BBJ) project being undertaken by UWI’s Institute of Sustainable Development (ISD) as part of the Developing Design Concepts for Climate Change Resilient Buildings project.

A major thrust of BBJ, which is financed by the International Development Bank, is to have Government pass and enforce a new building code which, among other things, will place more attention on ensuring the integrity of the natural environment. It entails technical assessments, legal and economic reviews, GIS mapping — including climate change vulnerability mapping — and public awareness building. It is anticipated that it will lead to the design and construction of buildings that are more resilient to disasters and the effects of climate change.

As explained by Ryan Nembhard of MGI, the vulnerability scores were obtained by multiplying the communities’ susceptibility to hazards — flooding, landslides, wind damage, heavy rainfall, storm surges, sea level rise, temperature rise, etc — by their exposure, that is population density, building type and economic situation.

Head of the institute Dr Parris Lyew-Ayee told the Jamaica Observer that the results were not intended to scare people or send Portmore residents scurrying to move out of the municipality.

“Because Portmore has so many people, its exposure is greater and consequently its vulnerability is greater,” he said. “It has a vulnerability to different hazards, that’s a given, but when you plug the population into that, the vulnerability goes up. All things being equal, if there weren’t so many people, Portmore would not be at such risk.”

The exact population of Portmore is in dispute, as the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, in the 2012 census put it at about 100,000, while the Portmore Municipal Council says it is closer to 300,000. The density of the community, however, is without question as houses there are typically very close to each other.

Much of Portmore, including sections of the tolled highway, was developed on lands reclaimed from swamps, which some believe is the primary reason it is more prone to extreme events. Lyew-Ayee counters that that is not so.

“You could have areas of reclaimed land where nobody lives,” he said, inferring that risk in that case would be minimal, if not non-existent.

“Just know your evacuation routes, know your shelters, make sure you build properly, and don’t block the drains,” Dr Lyew-Ayee offered in the way of advice to residents of Portmore.

The 11 sub-communities of the suburb were also ranked individually, with West Cumberland, Cumberland and Gregory Park found to be most prone to inland flooding. For coastal flooding, the communities most vulnerable are Gregory Park, Waterford, West Cumberland, Cumberland, Independence City, Passage Fort, and Naggo Head.

Outside of Portmore, those communities most prone to rainfall are Central Port Antonio and Buff Bay, both in Portland; and Morant Bay, St Thomas; as well as Lucea East and Lucea West. Those most susceptible to landslides are East Lucea; Christiana, Manchester; West Lucea; Central Port Antonio; and Caymanas.

The institute used satellite information, as well as historical data from the Forestry Department, the Water Resources Authority, the United States Agency for International Development, and its own database to produce the GIS mapping. The study was completed in December 2012.