FOR many reasons, Scotland’s vote for independence today embodies troublesome global complexities. As salutary as a “yes” vote may appear to advocates, there are potentially destabilising ramifications for the international context.

Among some of the domestic issues that London could face following an affirmative outcome is the impact on David Cameron’s Government, Labour leader Ed Miliband’s concern over his party losing seats in parliament, replacement of the Union Jack, and resolution of currency and finance issues. Free education in Scotland versus paid education in Britain and access to North Sea oil would be other bones of contention.

Aside from these thorny issues to be sorted out between London and Edinburgh, Scotland’s independence referendum has already kindled separatist sentiments in Spain’s Catalonia. Also, the referendum’s outcome will doubtless catch the attention of Uighurs in China and separatists in India, Russia, and elsewhere. Belgium’s internal dynamics and even Denmark’s relationship to autonomous Greenland could fall within this ambit.

In a similar vein, it’s plausible that prescient policymakers are calculating the prospects and viability of a tri-country Kurdistan state, especially in light of the Kurds’ ongoing constructive role in Iraq in particular and potentially in Syria. Their future status in NATO member Turkey is circumscribed by Ankara’s continuing assessment of their intentions in the Middle East turmoil and Turkey’s desire, albeit muted, for EU accession.

Further, a victorious “yes” vote will give Scotland the impetus to apply for UN and EU membership, and maybe NATO’s, as well as other international bodies such as the IBRD, IMF, OSCE, and OECD. At the same time, a truncated UK could lose international stature, thereby emboldening pretenders such as Brazil, Japan, Nigeria, and India to press their respective cases for permanent seats in the UN Security Council.

Joining the EU is problematical at best — and Scotland would be no exception. Instructive is the glacial pace of some countries of dissolved Yugoslavia trying to meet the union’s conditions for accession. As for NATO, Scotland’s impending left-leaning government’s “nuclear free” orientation suggests a policy of reassessing its retention of nuclear submarine bases. Becoming a NATO member could seem untimely since the alliance is busy looking into buttressing Ukraine in retaliation to the Kremlin’s pursuit of its avowed interests by abetting separatists. Interoperability and British-Scot current military structure are matters to be addressed if Scotland divorces the UK.

Secessionist tendencies in nation-states are pervasive, especially in multi-ethnic countries where culture, language, and aspirations are divergent. There is ample evidence, pronounced in European history — in part due to weak or unresponsive governments and unholy alliances — that constituent groups on the margins have taken action demanding leaders be proximate and responsive leaders to their needs. Border changes have recurred in European history despite Westphalian sovereignty. Indeed, many Scots may express today similar distaste and alienation caused by London’s “distance” from them. When drawing the political boundary between Scotland and the UK, thoughtful voters hopefully will have reflected on impending taxation policy, and economic and financial challenges.

In the offing is a likely revival of discussions among some members of the Commonwealth on the merits of republic status, for example, in Canada, Australia, Jamaica, and others, as they reassess affiliation with the Crown. Beyond that, Scotland’s separation could arouse latent separatism yearnings in Quebec,Tamil Nadu, Assam, and the Basque region of Spain, to mention a few.

In recent history, the Soviet Union was in reality an empire hollowed out at the centre with a threadbare ideology. Yet, in Russia today, there is still evidence of active ethnic impulses for separation in Dagestan and Chechnya. Further disintegration is not out of the question. Russian moves in Ukraine is a harbinger.

At this time, notwithstanding Moscow’s mischief, there are clear reasons why Ukraine’s goverment is presenting to its parliament a draft law that would give the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk regions “special status” for three years, including the right to use Russian as an official language. Decentralisation is the coin of the realm, but with greater devolution of power, autonomy often gravitates toward independence — sometimes at a heavy cost. This is the risk aspiring “nationalities” and regions face in plural states _ hence the emphasis on local and regional decision-making in federal or confederal systems.

Ex-Yugoslavia became untenable due to the leaders’ narrow political agendas, ethnic and religious exclusiveness, and external fillip for dissolution. The above are a few reminders of separatist tendencies. Many exist today in Africa, for example, Mali, Cote d’Ivoire, Nigeria, Somalia. Eritrea’s separation from Ethiopia a few years ago and South Sudan’s from Sudan are recent cases The Biafran War was gruesome.

In the present UK configuration, dormant animosities may rumble again in Northern Ireland. The durability of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement would be tested if restive Scot-Irish Protestants chose to strenghten ties with Scotland while loosening them with rump UK. If that were the case, Catholics in Ulster would opt to strengthen ties with Dublin over London. Right now, Sinn Fein, the poltical arm of the IRA, has political representation in the Irish parliament (Oireachtas) in Dublin. The recent questioning by British authorities of Sinn Fein’s leader Gerry Adams for an alleged role in IRA atrocities, as well as the passing of protestant firebrand octogenarian Ian Paisley are reminders of the scale of violence in Ulster of the not too distant past.

About 100 years ago, US President Teddy Roesevelt told Egypt that it was not ready for independence. However, aspiring nation-states are impatient in spite of attendant inimical consequences. They are confident that they can handle the vicissitudes. For example, we witnessed South Sudan, the newest independent country, still surviving after enduring open violence between two constituent tribes, the Nuer and Dinka. Independent Scotland will face other kinds of challenges, however. The proponents of independence remain confident in their ability to surmount them — other Scots are wary.

Chances are Shetland and Orkney Islanders will not agitate for their own independence from Scotland.

In Britain, Wales and Cornwall may have different ideas.

Earle Scarlett, Jamaican-born, is a former US diplomat with postings in Cameroon, ex-Yugoslavia and Ireland. He resides in Atlanta.