GUYANESE are currently anxiously monitoring political developments between the Government and the parliamentary Opposition following last Monday’s dramatic suspension by the country’s parliament by Head of State, Donald Ramotar, in the face of a then looming “no-confidence” motion against his People’s Progressive Party-led Administration.

With a one-seat majority in the 65-member National Assembly, the combined opposition of the main People’s National Congress Reform (PNCR) and the minority Alliance for Change (AFC) were in readiness to debate their long-threatened no-confidence motion at Monday’s scheduled meeting of the National Assembly.

They were also aware of the governing People’s Progressive Party’s (PPP) firm opposition to any such move and of the constant warnings from President Ramotar to authorise dissolution of parliament for new general elections unless sober dialogue fails to move from a confrontational path.

However, obsessed with the desire to debate their motion against the Government, the PNCR — which leads the Opposition in parliament under the umbrella of A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) by which it had contested the last general election in November 2011– may have overlooked a critical factor.

This weakness in their strategy was fully exposed hours before Monday’s scheduled meeting of parliament when President Ramotar announced in a surprising national broadcast that, in accordance with his constitutional powers, he had issued a proclamation to prorogue (suspend) the National Assembly.

Previously a long-serving general secretary of the PPP, Ramotar had warned the opposition that should they persist with their no-confidence motion he would be compelled to arrange for new general elections.

Prorogation (suspension) and dissolution (terminal ending of the life of a parliament) are entirely different factors in a multi-party parliamentary democracy, as citizens of Jamaica and other Caricom states would know.

The President has been holding “consultations” with the PNCR leader, David Granger, in his position as parliamentary Opposition leader, on a range of issues, including much overdue local government elections — an Opposition concern — as well as the growing apprehension by the head of state

about the dangers being posed to social and economic progress by divisive, non-cooperative Opposition politics.

However, their manoeuvres over recent weeks have included exchanges with the Office of the Speaker of Parliament Raphael Trotman — a former defector of the PNC and first leader of the AFC — and so the Opposition decided to move ahead with the no-confidence motion at Monday’s meeting of the National Assembly.

Pre-emptive strike?

They didn’t get the chance to do so, however. Hours before the Assembly was scheduled to meet that Monday afternoon President Ramotar resorted to making a surprise national broadcast, viewed as a pre-emptive strike.

By that medium, the President informed the nation that he had exercised his constitutional powers to authorise the prorogation of the National Assembly.

The Opposition’s political gamble had apparently overlooked this vital alternative also available to the president to that of dissolution of parliament. It frustrated the formal introduction of the proposed no-confidence motion against the Government.

The crucial difference is that, constitutionally, prorogation of parliament is effectively a temporary suspension in contrast to a dissolution in preparation for, inevitably, fresh general elections.

According to established parliamentary norms, prorogation and dissolution have become a way of multi-party political life across the entire Caribbean Community, with the latter associated with readiness for new elections — as is happening currently in a few states of Caricom.

New elections

New general elections are not due in Guyana before November 2016. At the November 28 poll the incumbent PPPC, for the first time, failed to secure an overall majority. It has been accustomed to securing outright parliamentary victories — other than during the quarter-century period (1968-1992) of what was largely considered institutionalised rigged elections under PNC rule, primarily under the leadership of the now late President Forbes Burnham.

The November 2011 poll produced the surprising results that gave the incumbent PPPC 32 seats to 33 for the combined APNU (PNC plus 26, and seven for the AFC).

Outfoxed, APNU’s chairman and PNCR leader, Granger, an ex-Brigadier of the Guyana Defence Force for a period under PNC governance, declared President Ramotar’s prorogation of parliament as “the darkest day for democracy in Guyana”. Those familiar with Guyana’s post-independence governance politics under the PNC could easily mark one for political hyperbole against Mr Granger.

Earlier, he had also urged organised picketing demonstrators outside the parliament building on Monday to be ready for “mass protests” against the Government.

For his part, the president was to link his broadcast statement on suspension of the current 10th parliament with an assurance to use the period to engage the opposition for “a return to normalcy” prior to moving for new general elections — not due before November 2016.

Early reactions have included the Opposition’s expected rejection of the president’s call for new dialogue to resolve outstanding governance issues, as well as expressed support of cooperation from leading private sector and labour movement officials.

For his part, secretary general of the Organisation of American States, Jose Miguel Insulza, noted in a media statement that the prorogation of the Guyana parliament was done within the framework of the country’s constitution. He, however, expressed the hope that resumption of the 10th parliament would occur “in the shortest possible time”.

Amid claims by the Opposition that the Government was undermining democratic governance, presidential adviser, Gail Teixeira, told the local media that the prorogation simply meant that parliament “has been suspended and not ended”.

“This,” she added, “also means that Bills and motions to be tabled are still in effect and can be heard whenever the next sitting is held…It also means that members of parliament and parliamentary staff will continue to be paid”.

Meanwhile, a crucial question remains: For whom the bell tolls?

With the combined Opposition having their own growing internal problems to resolve — according to media reports — and the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) still to be in complete readiness for a snap poll, new national elections should not be realistically expected before the first half of 2015 — if that soon.

New national elections could also be combined with a much-overdue local government poll, a persistent demand of the Opposition. So, stay tuned.

Rickey Singh is a Barbados-based noted Caribbean journalist.