Having the benefit of age — and experience — I find myself assailed by scepticism, filled with doubt, and unmindful of those perennial messages of hope and exhortation expressed by my country’s leadership. It’s just that I have heard it all before; have witnessed the barrenness of their figuring trees; and have watched Jamaica move from one crisis to the next in its chronic economic slippage since the decade of the 1960s.

The optimistic or misty-optic promise of the 1970s — “better must come” — was never realised. Instead we experienced a most disastrous economic setback from which we are yet to recover. This opinion may be rejected, but only by those who would discard reality and choose the comfort of a fool’s paradise.

In the latest soother, we are told to increase faith, hope and trust because the Government has passed those tests set by the IMF. This triumphant achievement is supposed to set us on the right track and soon there will be growth and prosperity.

But did I not hear this same tune and lyrics a full generation ago? And, after each long march we seemed to have got nowhere. Don’t take my word for it. Recall the official Economic and Social Survey, Jamaica of 1978, which said in part:

The year 1978 was involved a “painful adjustment for the Jamaican economy, and indeed for the whole society. An economic programme was instituted, with IMF assistance, which seeks to cut real wages and compress total consumption in order to reduce the fiscal deficit, contain import demand, stimulate exports and raise the global rate of savings and investment.

“As a result, the average real wage had declined by over 30 per cent by the end of the year, and real per capita personal consumption over the year was 13 per cent below 1977. The real value of government expenditure was just about maintained, but capital expenditure on projects in the financial year was about 20 per cent below 1977-78 in real terms. Real GDP continued to decline, although at the much reduced rate of 1.7 per cent, and the rate of unemployment climbed steeply from 23 to 26 per cent between April and October. There was a widening of the trade gap and the balance of payments deficit, reflecting the uncertainty prevailing in the first four months of the year, the persistence of materials shortages and bottlenecks, and a sluggish response of the economy to the corrective measures…

 The Investment/GDP- ratio increased only marginally in real terms. The balance of payments and the balance of trade out-turns were also somewhat disappointing. External trade statistics indicated that, in terms of foreign currency, the value of imports increased by close to 16 per cent while that of exports grew only marginally, by less than 3 per cent on an FOB basis, the merchandise trade surplus recorded in 1977 contracted, when imports are valued CIF, there was a deficit which was considerably greater than in 1977.

… the tax package did not meet its target of $180 million as the economic upturn in the latter part of the financial year, on which it was partly based, was slow to materialise.

 The new (IMF) agreement, which is for a three-year period under the Extended Fund facility, instituted drastic changes in macro-economic policies. Steep exchange rate devaluation was effected… [Note: The exchange rate at that time was one Jamaican dollar to US$1.10].

How have we progressed?!

The foregoing tells that the Jamaicans of today are going through the same exacting trials, with the same unfruitful results, for near 40 years. As it was then, so it is now. We were told to be patient and optimistic, because there were positive signs.  Does the following 1978 report sound familiar:

A remarkable degree of resilience in the social fabric was manifested. Other positive signs were the continued growth of output in domestic agriculture and in bauxite and alumina, the steady recovery of the tourist industry, a rise in the rate of saving and investment, and a reduction in the relative size of the budgetary deficit. In addition, there are good prospects for a considerable reduction in the rate of inflation.

A notable feature of 1978 was a decline of approximately 11 per cent in the number of the most serious violent crimes reported, ie murder, rape, manslaughter, and felonious wounding. This improvement has been attributed largely to a substantial increase in the strength of the Home Guard, increased Home Guard patrols, and the bringing of this organisation under police administration. There were also some improvements in the organisational structure of Jamaica Constabulary Force and in the system of administration of criminal justice.

Did you hear in December about the big reduction in major crimes? And did you hear last week about the shocking upsurge in murders? Of course, but I may be testing the readers’ patience. Let me end on the note that was heard at the end of 1978:

“The Jamaican economy entered 1979 saddled with a huge burden of foreign exchange costs — for energy, for essential food and raw materials, and for debt repayment. At the same time, basic changes in the macroeconomic variables have been effected at considerable social costs in order to provide resources for investment and to put the economy on internationally competitive footing. “The focus in 1979 will be on ensuring that the opportunities provided by these measures are converted into investment and export-led recovery.

“Discussions on the adoption of a social contract between Government, the private sector, and the trade unions are directed particularly towards that end.”

 The New Year’s messages then were as they are today. Read this one made for 1974 by then Prime Minister Michael Manley:

“We have had a tough year, and quite likely there is a tougher year ahead, but this is no cause for despair or despondency. Instead, we must look at the adversity into which we are locked, along with the rest of the world, as an opportunity to be more responsive, more creative, more productive, and more self-reliant. The road is long and the battle is tough, but through God’s help and the dedicated commitment of all our people we will make it.”

Forty years later we still haven’t made it. So, pardon my yawning, as I read those New Year’s messages.

Ken Jones is a veteran journalist, public relations consultant, and is the author of books on Marcus Garvey, Alexander Bustamante and other leading historic figures. Comments: kensjones2002@yahoo.com