IN recent elections in the Caribbean region, four ruling parties have been swept from office by the electorate, members of which opted to take their chances with opposition parties.

Of the five elections held since June last year, only Dominica’s ruling party was returned to power when voting ended.

Citizens in Antigua & Barbuda, St Kitts & Nevis, Anguilla, and Guyana all voted in favour of their opposition party, forging a pattern that could ripple throughout remaining territories.

The latest Opposition victory happened when Guyana’s Partnership for National Unity-Alliance for Change Coalition was confirmed as the winner of last Monday’s general election in that vast South American country, but approved as a part of the Caribbean Community.

Retired Army General David Arthur Granger will become the country’s new president after his multi-ethnic opposition coalition ousted the Donald Ramotar-led administration.

Weighing in on the developing trend, political commentator/analyst Richard “Dickie” Crawford, told the Jamaica Observer that “the Guyanese political parties were able to defeat the 23-year-old government because they formed a coalition of the smaller parties to get the majority votes”.

The strategy mirrors that of the ruling United National Congress in Trinidad & Tobago, which was also used by St Kitts & Nevis’ Team Unity, that replaced the governing Labour Party (SKNLP) in the country’s February 16 election.

“Trinidad’s Government has been a coalition of smaller parties that defeated the two old dominant parties and perhaps this success gave rise to the growing coalition movement in the Caribbean, which has worked,” Crawford argued.

He said the new three-party coalition formed by Team Unity enabled the Dr Timothy Harris-led Opposition to win seven of the 11 contested seats.

The SKNLP lost three of six seats that it held in an 11-seat parliament.

Meanwhile, Gaston Browne led his Antigua & Barbuda Labour Party (ALP) to a crushing victory, winning 14 of 17 seats when the country went to the polls on June 13 last year.

“Antigua, which had been ruled by two families for years, eventually got rid of them because of the public’s anger over the massive corruption and scandals in Antigua, including the celebrated Stanford affair and drug trafficking in the country. Antigua had become an international political embarrassment,” Crawford said.

Browne defined the victory as “one for you, the people” and promised to implement policies and measures that would make Antigua & Barbuda an economic powerhouse in the Caribbean.

Moving from a ‘coalition strategy’, Anguilla’s new government adopted a ‘modern policy’ and produced the most resounding cry for change so far.

Leadership was yanked from the ruling Anguilla United Movement (AUM), which failed miserably at securing a seat, and handed to the main opposition Anguilla United Front (AUF) in a landslide victory.

AUF won six of the seven seats in the general election, while the AUM walked away empty-handed “because of a vibrant new challenge to the old politics”, Crawford stated. The other seat went to independent candidate Palmavon Webster in the April 22 election.

The British Overseas Territory declared a public holiday when the new leader, Chief Minister Victor Banks, was sworn in to office and continued to make history when three women were voted into the House of Assembly.

‘Coalition strategy’ and ‘modern policy’ aside, maintaining its hold on the country was much easier for Dominica’s Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit.

Crawford commented that, “this young, outgoing political leader moved Dominica away from the old colonial, conservative politics of the Eugenia Charles era and gained the support of the younger voters”.

Being the only Government so far to retain its position, Skerrit’s Labour Party (DLP) won 15 of 21 contested seats on December 8, securing his fourth term.

The DLP’s continued governance of the island has seen seven of eight prime ministers from the party in its independent history.

Based on election results so far, Crawford suggested that, “the trend here would seem to be: first a coalition of many small parties can defeat the old, established parties if elections are approached on this basis rather than trying the same old strategy and expecting a different outcome. Secondly, a new political outlook to win the votes of the younger and more educated population who have become disillusioned with the old elitist family-type politics”.

Looking forward to upcoming elections, he stated that “Suriname’s government, headed by Desi Bouterse, is reputed to have had a fairly successful first term based on their performance and could win re-election barring any new spectacular developments”.

The country heads to the polls on May 25, just before the June 8 election in the British Virgin Islands (BVI), which, according to Crawford, has been “a stable country with a good standard of living”.

The political analyst however questioned whether or not recent developments with financial transactions, which have caused concern, is enough to make a difference in BVI’s politics and elections

Predicting the outcome of elections to be held in St Vincent & the Grenadines as well as Trinidad & Tobago, which have yet to announce the date for elections expected later this year, proves difficult.

“St Vincent & the Grenadines is led by the experienced, popular, and controversial Ralph Gonsalves who has lost and won support and is fighting to retain power. It is hard to determine the outcome or any new trends here that may affect the next elections,” Crawford stated.

“Trinidad & Tobago’s politics are dynamic and unpredictable however, and a winner would be hard to predict at this time,” he added.

While most of the Caribbean has already gone to the polls or are preparing to hold their elections, Jamaica patiently waits for 2016 when it is expected.

Having “a dominant, violent two-party system has always failed to present any viable option to this arrangement to win an election,” Crawford said.

“The present government is not enjoying a lot of success because of many controversial and badly handled issues in the society. However, the opposition party is even more disorganised and without a clear policy that can win public support. It may very well be that the best of the worst wins the next election here,” Crawford said.