HAVANA, Cuba (AFP) — The number of Cubans heading to the US has surged in the months since the historic thaw in bilateral relations — a swell experts attribute to uncertainty over the future of US policy that favours such travellers.

According to the US Customs Department, 9,371 Cuban migrants came into the US between January and March, more than twice the number from the same period in 2014.

As both countries prepare to solidify a breakthrough by opening embassies in each other’s capitals for the first time in half a century, the influx stems from doubt over whether US policies giving preference to Cuban immigrants will change.

Since 1966, America’s Cuban Adjustment Act has offered any citizen of Cuba admission and permanent residence in the US after spending one year in the country, with no yearly quota on immigrants.

In Cuba, “it is said that the first step they will take after the restoration of relations between the US and Cuba is to abolish the aid to Cubans” immigrating, said Orlando Garcia Herrera, a 53-year-old who arrived in Miami from Cuba with a Spanish passport.

Despite the rapprochement in the works, Washington has not indicated it will lift the immigration privileges, which Havana opposes.

In the last eight months the US Coast Guard said 2,620 Cubans have attempted to cross to the US state of Florida by sea, some in very small vessels.

The US has a policy of repatriating Cubans intercepted at sea but allowing those who make it to land to stay in the country — something known as the “wet foot, dry foot policy.”

“We’ve started to see makeshift boats under six metres with five people on board who arrive in a deplorable state,” said Francisco Figueroa of the Church World Service, an NGO that helps Cubans.

Border crossings

Experts point out that tackling the treacherous sea crossing to Florida is not the preferred route for people to join the 1.2 million Cuban immigrants in the US.

Travel restrictions that were eased in 2013 now allow them to travel legally to other countries and cross the US border in Mexico and sometimes in Canada.

Last year, 17,459 Cubans arriving in the US came through Mexico, while only 6,087 crossed the border in 2011. In the past six months the Customs Department has recorded more than 13,000 crossings.

In addition to these arrivals, the US grants some 20,000 immigrant visas and about 30,000 temporary visas for Cubans annually.

Jorge Duany, director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University, also estimates that about 15,000 Cubans overstay their tourist visas.

In addition to easing restrictions on travel, Cuba allowed the return of exiles, hoping to encourage more people, and their money, to return to the Communist island.

Carlos, who lived in the US between 2001 and 2013, said his stay in America was indispensable.

“There, the product of your work matches what you consume, whereas here it’s a different story,” said the building concierge, who returned to Havana for family reasons.