SOMETIMES in politics, the political smoke is much bigger than the fire. For, how else can one explain the findings of the latest Don Anderson public opinion poll, commissioned by the RJR Communications Group? According to the poll, the ruling People’s National Party (PNP) and the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) “are locked in a near statistical dead heat”. The poll, which surveyed “likely voters”, found that 26 per cent intend to vote for the JLP versus 25 per cent for the PNP. Of great significance, though, is the whopping 49 per cent who say they do not intend to vote in the next general election.

The poll was conducted between June 15 and 30, 2015, amidst a devastating drought, rising crime levels, and a punishingly stubborn public sector wage negotiation. On the face of it, however, it looks like the political smoke that continues to billow from the “greenhouse” is less harmful than fire marshals initially thought. Similarly, it appears that the excessive and incessant quotients of rabble-rousing and venomous invectives directed at the ruling orange house have been substantially ineffective and may well be creating positive unintended consequences for the Comrades.

It is stunning that, while support, among likely voters, for the JLP increased by one per cent, support for the PNP increased by eight per cent; moving from 17 per cent in November 2014 to 25 per cent in June 2015. According to the same poll, in November 2014, 58 per cent of likely voters said they “would not vote”. This bloc now represents 49 per cent of likely voters, or a decrease of 15.52 per cent. Eighty-nine per cent of those, moving from the “will not vote” to the “likely to vote” column intend to vote for the PNP, while 11 per cent said they intend to vote for the JLP. One can draw reasonable inference from the size of net-change among likely voters that, while the JLP’s support remains somewhat static, support for the ruling PNP indicates substantial growth.

Before anyone gets excessively anxious about these findings and starts to ascribe all sorts of pejorative nouns toward the 89 per cent of those who now say they “intend to vote for the PNP”, parliamentary elections are not constitutionally due until 2016. Therefore, a poll taken this early bears little or no relevance to what is likely to happen in 2016. By then, support for the JLP could well increase three or fivefold; the same holds true for the governing PNP. Of necessity, the PNP must postpone popping the champagne bottles because it is still trailing the JLP by 3.54 per cent of its December 2011 popular support base.

That notwithstanding, the poll provides vital snapshots of voter sentiments. It also provides valuable “trending” information that politicians rely on when carving out their election and campaign strategies. Both parties have their work cut out for them because voter apathy is extremely high. This signifies a lack of trust in the political process and governance systems, disinterest in our democratic process, frustration with and distrust of politicians, and general antipathy towards both political parties.

We are on a slippery slope. Lest we forget, the PNP won 42 of the 63 parliamentary seats in the last general election. Interestingly, however, only 52 per cent of the electorate participated, a shocking 48 per cent refused to exercise their franchise. Of the 52 per cent who voted in the December 29, 2011 election, 28.25 per cent voted for the PNP while 24.76 percent marked their “X” for the JLP. In other words, 53.34 per cent voted PNP and 46.66 per cent voted JLP; this translated to 6.68 percentage margin of victory (in of the popular vote support) for the PNP.

The Opposition JLP cannot rest nor “rust” on its laurels. If it is to be taken seriously as the “government-in-waiting”, and if it is to win the hearts and minds of the electorate — an electorate that is extremely apathetic and distrusting of political parties and politicians — it cannot divert its energy nor waste its resources in pursuit of folly and fluff. Its burden is always going to be greater than that of the elected Government. Therefore, the JLP’s primary, secondary and tertiary focus must be on designing and articulating bankable policy alternatives as much as it is on keeping the Government on its toes. Opposing for the sake of opposing and planting operatives in every nook and cranny of social, print and broadcast media may appeal to its political base of die-hards, but they alone cannot victory win.

If the JLP wants to capture the hearts and minds of the electorate, in a significant way, it must resist the temptations of operating like a disinterested party in a relationship, because before long there could be a whole heap of “ants in its political milk”. Winning the minds and hearts of the electorate is dissimilar to reciting the same “wicked and uncaring” mantra that the PNP used in the run-up to the 2011 General Election, but only to turn around to administer the “bitter medicine” that they chastised Andrew Holness for being forthright about. It has to “hop off the fender” of ridiculing the country and Finance Minister Dr Peter Phillips for “passing the IMF tests”, because the JLP knows failing those tests comes with huge consequences.

In addition to hard core, on-the-ground activities, house-to-house canvassing, conversion and target campaigning, the JLP must also begin to support those government policies it knows are being pursued in the best interest of the country — it is called bipartisanship in other jurisdictions. It should not allow political tribalism from its base to push it “right of centre” and to the point of ridiculousness. It is up to the JLP to capture the 25 per cent of registered voters who told the Don Anderson team that they are “just not interested in politics”. It is also up to the JLP and its leadership to convince the 22 per cent of registered voters who told the Don Anderson team that they “see no difference between the two parties…”

The PNP is acting as though it has never lost an election and that somehow Jamaica belongs to them, politically speaking. According to a very close friend of the prime minister, “She, more than the party, is operating with a ‘foolish kind of invincibility’, believing earnestly in its own foolishness that Jamaica is PNP country.” Well, Jamaicans may very well have a love affair with the PNP, but judging from how things have gone over the last three years, many have been expressing frustration and disappointment since consummating the marriage in 2011. The political “bedroom-bullies” of the PNP have been kicking up rumpus because they cannot find their significant other to provide them the comfort they were promised. The harsh economic times have “boxed the bread out ‘o dem mouth…”

Undoubtedly, the PNP has been undertaking some of the toughest economic reforms since the early 1980s. It is to the party’s credit that it continues to enjoy support. I have said it many times over, because the print and the broadcast media do not report on several government programmes that are in train all over the country, many people who depend on newspapers, radio and television stations for news have no idea what the Government is quietly doing.

This writer holds no brief for the Jamaica Information Service (JIS). However, I would urge as many readers as possible to tune in to the JIS online, whenever feasible, to get a sense of some of the things (good things) that are taking place. I watched with interest the live coverage of the post-Cabinet press briefing last Wednesday and heard so much about the progress of the “public sector transformation” that is taking place. Just a few evenings prior, Ian Boyne interviewed Professor Alvin Wint of the National Partnership Council on the issues relating to social partnership — that was a most enlightening discussion.

“Why mention these things, ‘Comrade’ Burns?”, some are bound to ask. While labels do not daunt me one bit, having been called both Labourite and Comrade, interchangeably and conveniently, methinks one of the reasons for the PNP attracting 89 per cent of those likely voters who, in 2014, said they would vote, is because of things like the JIS programmes. These presentations are telling completely different, but positive stories and showing pictures of happenings on the ground, all over the country.

Anyhow, a day in politics is like an eternity and polls are snapshots of the now. They bear little relevance a week or so afterward. But the findings of this recent poll should not be dismissed because it says something significant about our politics. For a Government to be pursuing some of the toughest economic reforms to remain in a statistical dead heat with an Opposition party that has “carte blanche” to convince, convict, and convert, says something remarkable about its “on-the-ground” strategy.

Burnscg@aol.com