ALONG with death and taxes very few things are certain. What may surely be added to the list is the fact that people are fed up with the behaviour of politicians. Given the chance, they will not hesitate to change them faster than their birthday anniversary.

I have been a student of American politics for the past 30-odd years, and at no time have I seen such pathetic rejection of incumbents running in a presidential campaign. Although it is 14 months from the presidential elections, and less than 10 months for electing each party’s presidential nominee, it would take something out of the ordinary for a change in perception of the electorate’s opinion of the representatives.

None of the 12 politicians, comprising current and former governors and senators, have double-digit poll numbers. History is replete with incidents of candidates showing high poll numbers prior to and weeks after Labour Day, only to fade into oblivion. The electorate, it seems, will use this election cycle to send clear messages to their representatives bringing into serious question their squandered opportunities during their tenure in various offices.

The presidential campaign is looking more like a 1970s Alfred Hitchcock suspense-filled movie thriller. Who the nominees for president are could send a clear signal which direction both arms of government will be heading come January 2017. This year the Republican field has more candidates than players on a football team. The difference, however, is that whereas team members are picked based on their skills, these candidates seem to be fulfilling their egomania.

The Republican Party is not alone in a quandary. The Democratic Party also has its problems. Hillary Clinton, the overwhelming front-runner is just waiting for coronation. But her crown seems to be tilting at this moment. Her closest rival, Bernie Sanders, an independent (Democratic ) senator is growing in popularity, while Clinton’s numbers are falling faster than autumn leaves. Now there is strong talk about Vice-President Joe Biden entering the race. What if he doesn’t? My view is that the Democrats could be gambling with fate.

Unlike the Democrats, the Republicans have quantity –but not necessarily quality. Of the 17 entrants we can safely eliminate two-thirds. Let us look at a few of the candidates who have an outside chance of being the nominee:

Jeb Bush, 4/1 chance: Two-term governor of Florida, son and brother of ex- presidents, and from a family with a superb political history. He was the governor of Florida in 2000 when the infamous recount gave the nod to his brother over the democratic nominee Al Gore. Was the party’s front-runner for the nomination a year ago, now in high single digits in the polls. Does not at this time show the spine for the job. Being overwhelmingly overshadowed by his latest nemesis Donald Trump — the current 8/5 favourite to be the nominee, based on polls, and who has billions at his disposal. But will this selection be about who has the most money, or will he follow the trend and turn the tables?

Marco Rubio, 10/1: There was talk of him being a likely nominee. It is wishful thinking as his chances are similar to mine being prime minister of Jamaica. His lack of consistent commitment and clear alternative to any policy — immigration, economy, health care, foreign — and his apparent innate dislike for Cuban-Americans, being himself an immigrant, is puzzling. He criticised President Obama’s lifting of the 54-year-old embargo on Cuba. Displayed reckless behaviour by running for president at this time, as he is not quite ready for the task based on public opinion.

John Kasich, 9/1: Governor who gets things done for his state; accepting of Obamacare, allowing his state to get large amount of Federal funding, benefiting his constituents immensely, angering many of his Republican representatives. Likeable and was the youngest state senator in Ohio at age 26.

This triumvirate — Carly Fiorina, female successful company executive; Ben Carson, a celebrated retired neurosurgeon and African-American; and Donald Trump, the outspoken ultra-rich solid front-runner who some say is racist, but there are no facts to substantiate such claims, must be watched. The question is, could Carson and Fiorina bring the votes from their respective groups — women and African-Americans? Polls from these groups of voters for the Republicans are quite dismal.

Carly Fiorina, 11/1: Brilliant mind, displays total control of her thoughts on any topic she speaks on. She became the CEO of Hewlett-Packard in 1999, first woman to head a fortune 500 business. Served in a large number of advisory and policymaking positions for national and state governments, heads a number of charities and non-profit organisations. Served as chairman of the world’s largest product philanthropy organisation and chairman of a Christian-based organisation that help millions out of poverty worldwide. Her superb performance in the first Republican debate has rocketed her to prominence and is a possible running mate.

Ben Carson, 40/1: His colour will disqualify him from being president at this time. Author, retired Johns Hopkins neurosurgeon, who has the distinction of being the first surgeon to separate Siamese twins. Soft-spoken gentleman of high Christian principles, he exemplifies dignity and modesty. He is now second in the polls behind Donald Trump, all this with minimum media exposure. Being the nominee will be like an octogenarian beating Usain Bolt in 200-metre race.

Donald Trump, 8/5: The overwhelming media coverage of him has dwarfed the exposure of every other candidate. Makes one wonder if by orchestration they know what we don’t know — declaring Donald Trump as the nominee. Trump is known for his candour, economic independence, his perceived leadership strength, fearlessness of saying it as it is, his affinity to make outlandish statements lacking in reality, a paragon of exaggerating events, apparent ability to get things done, his perceived mannerism of talking down to others, and not to be omitted is his narcissism.

The American people are not looking for a perfect human being. They, like the rest of us, want change from the existing political status quo. Donald Trump will have less than six months to prove to the Republican Party that he is a worthy nominee, and later to the American people that he is worthy of being their president. He will face the world’s stage again on the 16th during the second debate. Donald Trump, with the assistance of the media, has transformed the Republican Party’s thinking on issues like immigration and foreign policy, giving the impression that most of these candidates are not leaders but are easy targets of being led. His polls numbers have been rising like mercury since he announced his intention to run for president again, which has become a habit since 1992. Despite Trump’s consistent lead in the polls, quite a large percentage of people believe Trump will not be the nominee, let alone president.

Of the others, only Ted Cruz and Scott Walker could offer any semblance or treat. But this is politics, anything can happen.

My views are void of sentiment, and it won’t affect the results one way or the other. I base my opinion on data. Being a political junkie, my assumptions are trends-driven. I used that method to predict President Obama’s victory as party nominee and president, despite the then widely held belief: “A black man can’t be president of USA.”

What is clear is that all the polls are showing people are fed up with the current system and want a change. It happened in 2007 when the young, “inexperienced” Barack Obama came on the scene, the world was transfixed with his charm and brilliance and in 2008 he was elected president. Doesn’t mean the American people are prisoners of history. It means when change is desired it happens.

In my book, I would love to see a Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Carly Fiorina facing Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren on the Democratic ticket. Warren is previously a Harvard Law School professor specialising in bankruptcy law and is the senior senator from Massachusetts. I can hear the shouts: “There goes another madman.” Am I?

Tony Miles is a government pensioner and author of HumanWeaknesses, Forgiveness epitomised. Send comments to the Observer ortonymiles1940@gmail.com