The People’s National Party (PNP) will win the next general election on present form. If they do something stupid, or the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) is fabulously innovative, all bets are off.

This election will not be won on history; Michael’s escapades or Eddie’s near misses are irrelevant, as youth voters see only the last two terms. The PNP was into experimental social change. The JLP catered to material needs. None executed the ‘prosperity agenda’ — they wasted time, talent, resources over 53 years.

In these four years of sacrifice we are winning at last. The thing about “bitter medicine” is that a washout is necessary to remove waste and debt, but castor oil is nasty stuff and, while in progress, debilitating. An overhaul — change oil, remove carbon deposits — and expecting production to soar is to not understand growth, or to create mischief.

This is a first time in 53 years we are thinking seriously and we pause for cause. We had decades of belt-tightening, lived from one shipment of chicken back to the next for no therapeutic reasons, but now four years of denying self is for a cause — we take “bitter medicine” to cleanse and we will get good growth in future.

Some criticise, but a ‘washout’ is for cleansing. After the economy is purged of superfluities it may help growth. Most understand building, so the scaffolding for economic recovery is being erected and the metrics are lauded by local, global experts — this is scaffolding. A great structure needs deep foundations and the party elected to run this country in 2016 will have a marvellous, clutter-free run —thanks to the Portia/Peter team.

The process is in final stages and we must man up! We profess to admire Singapore but our leaders dither while Lee Kuan Yew led and no interest groups could stand in the way of progress. Prosperity was not delayed until the unconscious came to their senses as he used law and the police so within months people did not deface public property, idlers found work, and crime plummeted. JLP and PNP know what to do!

Between 1962 and 2012 we were economic recidivist, but in 2012 economic correction by the PNP/International Monetary Fund coalition started. In that time, the JLP had six prime ministers, the PNP three, and both had ample time.

Manley did wonders for the nation’s psyche; we were a force in global political thought, but his magic did not move the economy. Seaga was visceral in wielding the fiscal scalpel but incurred the ire of business and was rejected.

The PNP was in office 27 years and the JLP 22 years, so both had time to execute the prosperity agenda. In parallel, a British colony of many ethnicities and tongues and no natural resources, Singapore was prosperous in two decades of independence. We foundered.

Up to 2012 our serial prime ministers inflicted untold suffering on us, racked up a mountain of debt, then said we could not grow because of debt — Surprise, surprise! Is there a hotter Hell for some people?

Economic transformation started in 2012, and Portia, Peter & Co have been detoxing the economy; so we suffer, but final surgery is ahead. Some said Andrew would do “a Greek t’ing”— but Greece bowed, so he dropped it. Let’s see the JLP manifesto and its innovation.

Barring this, a PNP victory is assured. The evidence from 2007 shows the JLP is not up to national reconstruction, aka “bitter medicine” — they have no Seaga. Shaw was up the learning curve but blotted his page. If you make a deal with a bank you can’t “run weh” and hope for the best. Many think the JLP needs a new face as the Holness/Shaw duo cannot return to the global table with the same poisoned chalice.

Andrew spoke truth in his New Year’s message “there is no success without sacrifice”. Is it a recent discovery? His negative vibes…our lives “impacted by crime…an effective crime strategy continues to elude Government”; and “health care continued to be a problem”; “our water problems were exacerbated”; and “our dollar continues to devalue”; while “our taxes continued (sic) to increased” offer no new year hope. To follow him you should take washout and tonic for growth simultaneously.

On January 10, the Sunday Observer carried an editorial, ‘Only a sensible election campaign will do’. No one has ever accused the Observer of being partial to the PNP, yet: “For the first time in decades, most if not all of the fundamental economic indicators are pointing in the right direction.” A tectonic shift? “Much of the credit for this achievement must obviously go to the administration of Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller, and individually Finance Minister Peter Philips, for sticking to the economic reform. But make no bones about it, the Jamaican people get the highest praise for enduring the really severe economic hardship….” The Portia/Peter team is doing the job leaders dawdled over in decades of debt addiction and as there is no rebuttal this means something. If voters are rational, the PNP should win the election comfortably as the uncommitted are the most rational of voters.

I had a one-on-one with name-brand JLP donors; men into production and jobs. Their fear is the JLP may win the election and queer the pitch. With the removal of concessions they have no advantage under a JLP Cabinet, but they have acumen to clean up given access to our neighbour’s markets. They say recent State visits show respect for our statecraft as we do better than Greece. Productivity is low, but they can grow once wages match value-added: right-sizing the public service will reduce business taxes and none expects much growth now we are in change mode. They like Peter — he holds the tiller firmly; opposition for opposition sake irks them; the inexpert Holness/Shaw duo pitting puny minds against global experts is disrespect. They were miffed the JLP did not celebrate global accolades to our stock exchange. No Government ever got such praise, and this is an asset to leverage. Two of them held major State posts under the JLP Administration and opined that the Holness/Shaw duo was a set of (you no what) trading on the legacy of Edward Seaga while disrespecting him. They held that Bruce Golding was superior to the entire front line of the JLP, and there should be space for a “Chief!” Stay conscious, my friend.

Dr Franklin Johnston is a strategist, project manager and advisor to the minister of education. Send comments to the Observer or franklinjohnstontoo@gmail.com

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