This is the second in a four-part series looking at the marginal seats which may heavily influence the outcome of the February 25 general election.

It is a truism that where western Jamaica goes, there goes the nation. This is especially true when there is a national swing against the ruling party, as discontent sets in first, the further one is located from the centre.

At present, the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) holds only three of 14 seats in the west, but with unimpressive margins of victory in a number of them. There are four marginal seats in the western region, which are analysed below.

ST JAMES EAST CENTRAL

This constituency was created in 1967 to give the JLP’s Dr Herbert Eldemire a safe foothold. It has largely remained so for the JLP, except for the P J Patterson years, when his schoolmate, Violet Nielson, captured it for the People’s National Party (PNP). Ed Bartlett has returned it to JLP control and built it into a stable base for himself as minister of tourism under JLP administrations.

But his hold on this seat has been tenuous in recent times.

In 2011 he only managed to prevail by 174 votes over new-boy Cedric Stewart. On this occasion he is being opposed by veteran politician Noel Donaldson.

Donaldson is the son of a former PNP mayor of Montego Bay, Cecil Donaldson, and has himself served as mayor on a JLP ticket, following which he ran a close race as the JLP candidate in 2007 against a seemingly impregnable Derrick Kellier in South St James.

He has recently returned to the PNP and was confirmed as candidate/caretaker only a few months ago.

If Donaldson is able to bring his proven organisational skills to bear in the short time, this could be an interesting battle of the MoBay titans.

Rose Hall has been the longtime JLP bastion, while Somerton has consistently supported the PNP. Spring Mount/John’s Hall has swung between both parties and holds the balance in the constituency.

With a low voter turnout in the 2011 general election, the PNP was able to bring out its votes in Somerton and made some inroads into Bartlett’s majority in Rose Hall. The PNP has benefited from the registration of beneficiaries of new housing developments in Rose Hall and has been able to elect a PNP councillor in the subsequent parish council elections. Meanwhile, Spring Mount has swung heavily toward the PNP, electing a councillor by a wide margin.

Bartlett’s key to victory is to motivate his latent support in Rose Hall to turn out on Election Day. Donaldson, on the other hand, needs to build an organisation in the short time available that can consolidate the PNP gains.

LAST FOUR ELECTION RESULTS

The abbreviations for parties are as follows:

IEWFIPP – Imperial Ethiopian World Federation Incorporated Political Party

IND – Independent

JLP – Jamaica Labour Party

MGPPP – Marcus Garvey People’s Progressive Party

NDM – National Democratic Movement

PNP – People’s National Party

UPP – United People’s Party

December 29, 2011

Edmund Curtis Bartlett JLP 6,382

Cedric Stewart PNP 6,208

Roystan Richards IND 22

Per cent Votes 51.75

Total Voters 24,826

September 3, 2007

Edmund Curtis Bartlett JLP 8,398Donald Colomathi PNP 6,637Roystan Richards IND 2October 16, 2002Edmund Curtis Bartlett JLP 6,394Donald Colomathi PNP 5, 170Carnel Cameron NDM 29December 18, 1997Edmund Curtis Bartlett JLP 5, 152Violet Neilson PNP 5, 851Robert Russell NDM 435ST JAMES CENTRALThis is a fairly new constituency comprising essentially the old town of Montego Bay and the Salt Spring community. In the 2011 election, the respected journalist and publisher of theHeroy Clarke has vowed to make amends for what he considers his complacency, occasioned by over-confidence. Smith has been replaced by the very youthful and attractive attorney, Ashley-Ann Foster. Since her selection through a contentious process, she has put together an efficient campaign team and engaged in a high-profile campaign. Foster has been spending quite a bit on advertisement in the western sections of the national dailies as well as heavily utilising social media to spread her message.The councillor for Salt Spring has since defected to the PNP and has shifted the balance slightly to the PNP.With both sides committed to bringing out the vote, the turnout should be at a respectable level and the more efficient organisation, moreso on the day, will prevail.December 29, 2011Heroy Anthony Clarke JLP 5,585Lloyd B Smith PNP 5,683***First time MP***HANOVER EASTERNSince the 1970s, this constituency, though considered a swing seat, has remained in the PNP bracket. Legendary PNP general secretary under Michael Manley, Dr D K Duncan, upon his return to the ranks of the PNP, was drafted into service by the local party organisation to keep Hanover Eastern PNP. Duncan was able to prevail and save his reputation after a tense finish, winning by 252 votes. On this occasion, two relative unknowns are facing each other in a low-key campaign – Chester Castle Councillor Wynter McIntosh for the PNP and Dave Brown for the JLP.The key to this election for the PNP is to have a sufficiently high turnout in Sandy Bay to overcome Brown’s majority in Hopewell, and vice-versa for the JLP. Sandy Bay’s Councillor Lloyd Hill might hold the key to the final result.LAST FOUR ELECTION RESULTS December 29, 2011Paula Kerr Jarrett JLP 6,602Donald Keith Duncan PNP 6,853September 3, 2007Barrington Gray JLP 6,058Donald Keith Duncan PNP 6,068October 16, 2002Barrington Gray JLP 5, 908Lloyd Daley Hill PNP 5,152Winston Kingsley Malcolm UPP 27December 18, 1997Basil Buck JLP 4,230Canute Brown PNP 5,622Delbert Blair NDM 341ST ELIZABETH SOUTH WESTERNSt Elizabeth South Western was the premature graveyard for high-riding JLP Deputy Leader Dr Chris Tufton in 2011. His vanquisher, by a minuscule 13 votes, was young Hugh Buchanan, heir to the organising genius of his late father, Donald Buchanan. Both candidates exhibited outstanding organisational skills, resulting in a relatively high 68 per cent voter turnout when the national turnout was only 53 per cent. A repeat showdown is on offer between the Buchanan scion and an equally youthful and high-profile former leader of Generation 2000 (G2K), attorney Floyd Green.The constituency is evenly divided by two strongholds each – Black River and Brompton for the PNP and Mountainside and Pedro Plains for the JLP. Buchanan has been distracted by internal challenges to his candidacy, but Green has no proven record of organisational acumen matching Tufton’s. Buchanan has been on the ground much more in the last two months or so whipping up support for his return to Gordon House. He is being assisted in a significant way by crucial members of his family. He is really fighting to win a second term.Green, on the other hand, has been doing the hard work necessary allied with a strong use of traditional media by whipping out news releases on nearly every conceivable happenings in the constituency. As the former G2K president, social media plays a significant role in his campaign strategy. The key to victory – in addition to who better masters the ground game – is to bring out the votes.Ironically it could well be Danny Buck’s former parish council division, Pedro Plains, that will break the tie.LAST FOUR ELECTION RESULTS December 29, 2011Christopher Tufton JLP 9,440Hugh Buchanan PNP 9,453September 3, 2007 Christopher Tufton JLP 9,899Rev Stanley Redwood PNP 8,074 October 16, 2002 Derrick B Sangster JLP 7,573Donald B Buchanan PNP 7,683December 18, 1997Derrick B Sangster JLP 7,246Donald B Buchanan PNP 7,956Faith Blackwood NDM 135

Edmund Curtis Bartlett JLP 8,398

Donald Colomathi PNP 6,637

Roystan Richards IND 2

Per cent Votes 60.51

Total Voters 25,130

October 16, 2002

Edmund Curtis Bartlett JLP 6,394

Donald Colomathi PNP 5, 170

Carnel Cameron NDM 29

Per cent Votes 64.1

Total Voters 18,191

December 18, 1997

Edmund Curtis Bartlett JLP 5, 152

Violet Neilson PNP 5, 851

Robert Russell NDM 435

Per cent Votes 70.01

Total Electors 16,443

ST JAMES CENTRAL

This is a fairly new constituency comprising essentially the old town of Montego Bay and the Salt Spring community.

In the 2011 election, the respected journalist and publisher of the

Western Mirror, Lloyd B Smith, contested for the PNP against Councillor Heroy Clarke and pulled off an unexpected victory, but by the slimmest of margins – 97 votes. The election was evenly contested in all areas of the constituency, with a low poll of 49.5 per cent.

Heroy Clarke has vowed to make amends for what he considers his complacency, occasioned by over-confidence. Smith has been replaced by the very youthful and attractive attorney, Ashley-Ann Foster. Since her selection through a contentious process, she has put together an efficient campaign team and engaged in a high-profile campaign. Foster has been spending quite a bit on advertisement in the western sections of the national dailies as well as heavily utilising social media to spread her message.

The councillor for Salt Spring has since defected to the PNP and has shifted the balance slightly to the PNP.

With both sides committed to bringing out the vote, the turnout should be at a respectable level and the more efficient organisation, moreso on the day, will prevail.

December 29, 2011

Heroy Anthony Clarke JLP 5,585

Lloyd B Smith PNP 5,683

Per cent Votes 45.36

Total Voters 24,991

***First time MP***

FIRST TIME CONSTITUENCY

HANOVER EASTERN

Since the 1970s, this constituency, though considered a swing seat, has remained in the PNP bracket.

Legendary PNP general secretary under Michael Manley, Dr D K Duncan, upon his return to the ranks of the PNP, was drafted into service by the local party organisation to keep Hanover Eastern PNP. Duncan was able to prevail and save his reputation after a tense finish, winning by 252 votes.

On this occasion, two relative unknowns are facing each other in a low-key campaign – Chester Castle Councillor Wynter McIntosh for the PNP and Dave Brown for the JLP.

The key to this election for the PNP is to have a sufficiently high turnout in Sandy Bay to overcome Brown’s majority in Hopewell, and vice-versa for the JLP.

Sandy Bay’s Councillor Lloyd Hill might hold the key to the final result.

LAST FOUR ELECTION RESULTS

December 29, 2011

Paula Kerr Jarrett JLP 6,602

Donald Keith Duncan PNP 6,853

Per cent Votes 62.27

Total Voters 21,699

September 3, 2007

Barrington Gray JLP 6,058

Donald Keith Duncan PNP 6,068

Per cent Votes 66.67

Total Voters 18,338

October 16, 2002

Barrington Gray JLP 5, 908

Lloyd Daley Hill PNP 5,152

Winston Kingsley Malcolm UPP 27

Per cent Votes 63

Total Voters 17,821

December 18, 1997

Basil Buck JLP 4,230

Canute Brown PNP 5,622

Delbert Blair NDM 341

Per cent Votes 65.77

Total Electors 15, 624

ST ELIZABETH SOUTH WESTERN

St Elizabeth South Western was the premature graveyard for high-riding JLP Deputy Leader Dr Chris Tufton in 2011.

His vanquisher, by a minuscule 13 votes, was young Hugh Buchanan, heir to the organising genius of his late father, Donald Buchanan.

Both candidates exhibited outstanding organisational skills, resulting in a relatively high 68 per cent voter turnout when the national turnout was only 53 per cent. A repeat showdown is on offer between the Buchanan scion and an equally youthful and high-profile former leader of Generation 2000 (G2K), attorney Floyd Green.

The constituency is evenly divided by two strongholds each – Black River and Brompton for the PNP and Mountainside and Pedro Plains for the JLP.

Buchanan has been distracted by internal challenges to his candidacy, but Green has no proven record of organisational acumen matching Tufton’s.

Buchanan has been on the ground much more in the last two months or so whipping up support for his return to Gordon House. He is being assisted in a significant way by crucial members of his family. He is really fighting to win a second term.

Green, on the other hand, has been doing the hard work necessary allied with a strong use of traditional media by whipping out news releases on nearly every conceivable happenings in the constituency. As the former G2K president, social media plays a significant role in his campaign strategy.

The key to victory – in addition to who better masters the ground game – is to bring out the votes.

Ironically it could well be Danny Buck’s former parish council division, Pedro Plains, that will break the tie.

LAST FOUR ELECTION RESULTS

December 29, 2011

Christopher Tufton JLP 9,440

Hugh Buchanan PNP 9,453

Per cent Votes 68.41

Total Voters 27,710

***First time MP***

September 3, 2007

Christopher Tufton JLP 9,899

Rev Stanley Redwood PNP 8,074

Per cent Votes 74.01

Total Voters 24,353

October 16, 2002

Derrick B Sangster JLP 7,573

Donald B Buchanan PNP 7,683

Per cent Votes 72

Total Voters 21,356

December 18, 1997

Derrick B Sangster JLP 7,246

Donald B Buchanan PNP 7,956

Faith Blackwood NDM 135

Per cent Votes 80.99

Total Electors 19,023