Forget the hype, vote wisely
Those contending for the job of governing Jamaica for the next term are now well along on the home stretch with the finish line closing fast.
Thursday of this week is when most registered Jamaican electors will have the right to vote. But of course, the vote actually begins today with police, soldiers and election day workers casting their ballots.
Pretty soon it will be all over. Meanwhile, though, Jamaicans are itching to hear from pollsters which of the two major political parties is edging ahead — maybe by a head, perhaps even a nose.
Conventional wisdom is that this election will be close. That’s unlike December 2011 when the People’s National Party (PNP), then in Opposition, won 42 to 21 over the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in the parliamentary seat count. Back then, the winning PNP count amounted to 464,064 or 53 per cent of those who voted, compared to 405,920 or 46.3 per cent for the JLP, according to figures from the Electoral Commission’s website.
In 2011 the voter turnout was an abysmally low 53.17 per cent of the then total electorate of 1.64 million electors.
Given all the issues at play in this election, it seems reasonable to expect that the final numbers will more resemble 2002 and 2007 than 2011.
Back in 2002, the PNP, after 13 years in office, won 34-26 in the 60-seat Parliament. With voter turnout at just over 59 per cent, the PNP took 51.59 per cent and the JLP 46.92 per cent.
In 2007, the JLP benefitted immensely from a widely held perception that the PNP’s 18 years in power had become unhealthy for good governance and democracy. Yet in winning 32 of the 60 seats on offer, the JLP was only marginally ahead in terms of the vote count at 410,438 or 49.9 per cent of those registered to vote, as against the PNP’s 405,293 or 49.3 per cent.
In 2007, the voter turnout was 61.46 per cent.
We note that with 1,824,410 registered to vote come Thursday, the latest Don Anderson polls conducted for the RJR Group have suggested that the turnout in percentage terms will be higher than in 2011, though lower than in 2007.
Given that political analysts have long held that the PNP has a larger base of hardcore support, the JLP will be hoping that a higher turnout will reflect a decision by a majority of neutrals to vote against the Government.
How the neutrals have viewed the developments of recent days, including the seeming overambitious economic plans outlined by the JLP as well as the risky, and in this newspaper’s view, wrong-headed decision by the ruling party to avoid the now customary televised debates, will presumably have an impact on the results.
However, Jamaican political parties know from long, hard experience that in any election, more so a close election, it’s the capacity to get core supporters motivated enough to go to the polling station that will usually make the difference.
From the perspective of this newspaper, we think it right and proper to remind all eligible voters that the right thing to do is to put aside the hype and emotionalism. Instead, they should make a reasoned and calculated decision regarding which party they believe is best able to guide the nation through the tough economic and social challenges over the next few years. They should then vote accordingly.