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The people have spoken — Interesting days ahead
Columns
Christopher Burns  
February 26, 2016

The people have spoken — Interesting days ahead

The Jamaican people have spoken definitively. Well done, Andrew Holness and the JLP, well done. I am almost certain, for Andrew, Hubert Humphrey’s The Politics of Joy also means the “The Joy of Politics”; because, as he celebrates his party’s victory, he should be experiencing some amount of deep-seated personal accomplishment and unspeakable joy.

That the duo, Andrew and Juliet, will enter the nation’s Parliament is remarkable, to say the least.

Having now laid the predicate for his prime ministership, the leadership of his party and the country, every Jamaican should feel proud of the work he has done in the quest to make this country a better place for all.

Despite pockets of intimidation, acts of violence, and some unnecessary but expected brawls, we can all be satisfied for the healthiness of our democracy. Such a pity there was not the expected uptick in voter turnout, however marginal. That would have been encouraging, because it would augur well for the future of our democracy.

One of the objectives of engaging a bigger cohort of voters in the electoral process is to have them influence the direction of government policies and programmes. The bigger the participation rate, the greater the likelihood for better governance and government, because implicit in a bigger voter-participation rate is the desire for greater accountability. When people vote, and vote in large numbers, their actions send a strong message to the political directorate that things cannot continue to be business as usual. Besides the low voter turnout, Andrew Holness also connected with the people, while Portia Simpson Miller pursued aloofness a la “ducking the debate”.

The results of Thursday’s election signified a desire for change. The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and to Prime Minister-designate Andrew Holness snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. Lest we forget, up to a few weeks ago, the JLP was trailing in the polls; hardly anyone anticipated that the party could pull off such a stunning victory. Obviously, the JLP out-organised, out-messaged, and out-galvanised the People’s National Party (PNP) this time around.

That Jamaica has never assassinated a prime minister or overthrown a Government is certainly something we should celebrate and highlight. The friendly rivalry amongst and between party supporters throughout the election campaign should not be overlooked; it showed a particular maturity and welcome departure from what obtained during those turbulent years between 1975 and 1989 when politics was a source of hatred, division and lawlessness. We have certainly come a long way. The biggest winners of last Thursday’s vote are the Jamaican people, who with resolve and determination went out to vote for their respective candidates and parties.

Elections have three outcomes; it is about who wins, who loses, and the message that the result sends. The JLP will have no honeymoon, because the challenges that lie ahead are as fierce as they are obdurate. The loser must show as much magnanimity in defeat and as she would in victory, even as she ponders her future and that of the PNP.

Did the PNP take the voters for granted, given its renowned, effective election machinery and reputation to win elections? For, although “hindsight is 20/20”, apparently the PNP was effective in relying on foresight in how it conducted itself and how it went about the election.

I remarked to my friends the strangeness of the election campaign. Everything was odd about most of the activities associated with it. It was strange from the announcement of the election. We are accustomed to seeing a national mobilisation — countrywide tours, then the staging of starter’s bloc, “On your marks! Get set! Go!” Perhaps, the traditionalist in me forced me to see strangeness where none exists; however, there was a strange rush that ushered the election date announcement. I feel that a nationwide tour would have made much difference.

The PNP went into the election without doing a clinical analysis of the state of the “local” politics. By this, I mean the fact that all politics is local, the PNP should have assessed each constituency to identify the issues that concern constituents. There were PNP members of parliament who were absolute non-performers and yet expected the people to reward them.

In hindsight, one wonders if the PNP did not err, and err most egregiously, by investing too much currency, time and efforts attacking the Holnesses’ credibility and integrity with respect to the construction of their Beverly Hills home without adducing even a shred of evidence to support the slightest act of impropriety. The same assessment is timely concerning the PNP’s decision to withdraw from the national debates. Whilst the national debates would not necessarily change voting decision amongst hardcore (base) supporters, the PNP’s participation would certainly have helped issues-voters and uncommitted voters to make informed voting decisions which could have benefited the PNP.

It is true that things were terrible, economically, socially and “reputationally”, when the PNP assumed the reins of Government in January 2012. The country was in recovery from the fallout from the ‘Dudus’ saga, but was still in the throes of the aftermath of a world recession. The economic management of the country was in peril and necessitated renegotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It required the Jamaican people to make tremendous sacrifices toward the recalibration of the economy and ultimately the country.

The ensuing results have not been overwhelmingly obvious, but steady advancement and significant progress have occurred. The dollar is more competitive today than three years ago. This is not without the imposition of serious hardship as imported goods are move expensive. Jamaica is a high import dependent economy. Paradoxically, the competitiveness of the currency, while creating significant price movements in imported goods, also creates the potential for growth through local product substitution, especially agricultural products.

The new JLP Government will have no wiggle room; it will have to operate under the strictures of the existing IMF agreement. The remaining milestones are hefty ones. The primary surplus target, for instance, although reduced to 7.25 per cent of gross domestic product, with a further adjustment to seven per cent pending, will continue to be onerous because it is projected to climb to $120 billion. This means that debt reduction will remain paramount for the ongoing success of the IMF agreement, which ends in 2017.

It is within this context that Andrew will have to govern. It is also within this framework that his “10-Point Plan”, but specifically his tax reform proposal, has to be evaluated, measured and framed. Andrew will now have to pivot from aspiration to implementation, but without molesting the current arrangement. It will be challenging for him and the JLP to grant the levels of concessions they are promising and at the speed that they intend to move.

First, the new Government will have to manage the inflationary spiral that any sudden infusion of money into the domestic economy is likely to cause, more so in an economic reality where the economy is not producing sufficiently. Then, the Government will have to contend with pressures on the foreign exchange supply and indeed the value of the local currency.

Then, there is the issue of revenue dilution that the tax reform (PAYE) proposal did not address in any sensible or forthright manner. The Government will have to devise mechanisms to replace the taxes that it is forfeiting. The new Government must be forthright with the people about measures it will pursue concerning revenue-enhancing measures. Will it be imposing new taxes? Does it plan to increase General Consumption Tax? Will there be reduction in the size of the public sector?

Interesting days ahead. The election is over. We should now accept the verdict from the people as sacrosanct and coalesce around the new Government. Prime Minister-designate Andrew Holness and his team will have to govern from the centre. As such, its policies and programmes must recognise the majority without bias and cannot disregard the minority; for they too deserve the best from their government.

The PNP must reform; it has no choice. It must go back to its core philosophy. It must disrobe itself of the ugly haughtiness and arrogance that it has cloaked itself in for far too long. The PNP lost because it failed to distinguish between power and authority, and failed to use the difference between the two things for the benefit of the people. The PNP made several strategic and tactical errors. The indecent haste with which it entered the election backfired big time. The PNP must now take a serious look at its leadership, inclusive of its second-tier leaders.

Congratulations to the victors, yours was a well-deserved victory. To the vanquished, your mission is to “wheel and come again”.

 Burnscg@aol.com

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