You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all the time. — Abraham Lincoln

Local pollsters bit the dust in our just-concluded 17th general election. I shed no tears for and simultaneously hold no ill will towards them.

Recall my statement in early February: “Pollsters are not kingmakers. It is voters and what they do behind the ballot screen/curtain that decide the fate of political parties. Conclusions to the contrary are nothing more than groupthink, or what some credible social scientists call herd psychology.” (

Sunday Observer, February 7, 2016)

Any psephologist worth his/her salt knows that his/her credibility is as good as the accuracy of their last poll. We should be extremely distrustful of pollsters who don’t accept this universal minimum standard. Pollsters, statisticians and forecasters who seek to cover up, gloss over and/or sugar-coat their failures are no more than charlatans, amateurish three-card men, or “Obeahmen with scientific calculators”, according to one of my regular readers.

The officials of the Electoral Office of Jamaica (EOJ) completed their final count of ballots in the February 25, 2016 General Election last Tuesday. The EOJ and the security forces deserve very high commendations.

Local pollsters, however, need to ‘wheel and come again’, as rural folk say. Taken as a whole, the findings of resident pollsters were scarcely more than immature fruits when matched against the outcomes of the election. It is more than legitimate to ask if their findings were treated with large doses of calcium carbide. Country people warn that ‘carbine’ fruits cause diarrhoea.

Some politicians, I gather, are still making frequent trips to the bathroom. And many others who treated poll findings as the ‘fifth gospel’ are anxiously searching for sackcloth and ashes. I try my best not to gloat at anyone’s misfortune and/or discomfort, but one must not lose the essence and relevance of valuable lessons.

The published poll findings just weeks/days before our most recent general election are full of ripe ideas for scripts of comedy or, better yet, tragedy.

Don Anderson [professional pollster], Professor Herbert Gayle [sociologist, UWI, Mona], Bill Johnson, [professional pollster], Dr Christopher Charles [senior lecturer in political psychology, UWI, Mona], and Gleasia Reid [MPhil/PhD, student, UWI, Mona] would do well to ask for notes from Trinidadian pollster Derek Ramsamooj. It would appear that Ramsamooj’s approach of concentrating on marginal seats and not the general population is a more efficient, if not a fresh approach to local polling.

Alas, I suspect some of the local pollsters are too socially puffed up and/or may be far too academically calcified to understand that complacency and characteristic sameness in methodology have a similar effect to rusty nails piercing the feet of someone with type one diabetes who refuses treatment.

By their fruits we shall know them, say the scriptures. Don Anderson, the reputed ‘Don Gorgon’ (read reigning king) of local polling surely must be considering his future. It is a matter of record that I never took any of his polls seriously.

Recall Anderson’s findings prior to the 2007 General Election: “More Jamaicans say they would vote for the People’s National Party (PNP) if general elections were held now, breaking a six-month statistical dead heat in support for both the ruling party and the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), the latest

Observer-commissioned Don Anderson poll has found. According to Anderson and his team from Market Research Services Limited, when they asked the question, ‘If the national elections to elect a new Government were to be held today, which of the two political parties would you vote for?’ Twenty-nine per cent of those surveyed said they would vote for the PNP, while 25 per cent said the JLP.” (Jamaica Observer, June 15, 2007)

Fast-forward to February 18, 2016: “ ‘It looks as if we could have a 58 per cent voter turnout; this is what is indicated at any rate by the persons we interviewed. Fifty-eight per cent said they plan to vote, 20 per cent told us categorically that they do not plan to vote and 22 per cent said they were not sure,’ said Anderson.” (

RJR News, February 18, 2016)

The voter turnout, according to data from the EOJ, was 47.7 per cent, the lowest since Jamaica attained universal adult suffrage in 1944. You can do the math.

Up to February 22, 2016, Anderson’s polls indicated a win for the People’s National Party: “The party standings in the latest RJR Group/Don Anderson polls show the governing People’s National Party (PNP) still ahead of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), but by only three per cent, as against four per cent one month ago. The party standings show the PNP at 30.8 per cent, up from 27 per cent in the January poll, but the Jamaica Labour Party is now at 28 per cent — an increase of five percentage points. Among the others polled, 21.7 per cent were not sure if they would vote and 20 per cent declared that they would not vote. In the last Anderson poll in January, the People’s National Party was at 27 per cent, while the Jamaica Labour Party was at 23 per cent, with the undecided at 50 per cent.” (

RJR News, February 22, 2016)

Was the ‘juggernaut PNP machinery’ that Anderson and others trumpet defanged? I have been saying on the radio, and in this space for many weeks, that it was all mind management by the PNP and its lieutenants, especially in traditional media. New media and a more discerning populace are a godsend.

The official count of the EOJ has confirmed that the JLP won 32 seats and the PNP 31. This is the closest general election result since 1944.

On February 26, 2016, after the fact, Don Anderson told us, inter alia: “ ‘The bounce was not there for the PNP, while the JLP got out their voters. I think essentially we saw a lot more energy coming out of the JLP camp, and that was evident in the fact that they won the election — even marginally,’ Anderson said.” (

RJR News, February 26, 2016)

What grade would the late Professor Carl Stone, the legitimate father of local polling, assign to the work of today’s top-notch pollster? Maybe he would summarise his views with these words from a Mighty Sparrow hit: “England was a mighty place many years gone by. Now, England is a troubled place, please don’t ask me why. To quote an old Englishman whose name is Jack Union, London Bridge is falling down.”

The myth that the PNP has a gargantuan and impregnable election machinery was shattered in this election. The traditional and mistaken belief that a low voter turnout is to the eternal advantage of the PNP was smashed. The propaganda that “this is PNP country” has been dealt a fatal blow. This is good for democracy.

Political parties vying for State power don’t own citizens’ votes. The talisman effect of polls is scarcely more than “GroupThink” — the term coined by social psychologist Irving Janis in his seminal work,

Victims of GroupThink (1972).

I wonder if I should credit “youthful exuberance”, and here I take liberties with the English Language, for the ‘mis-forecasts’ of Dr Christopher Charles and Gleasia Reid. I wonder?

Recall this banner headline in the Old Lady of North Street four days before the general election? ‘Forecast: PNP WIN! – Portia set to remain PM after election; university team projects 40 seats for the PNP’.

The story went on to state, among other things: “This report is a revised and updated forecast, which takes into account the PNP’s refusal to participate in the debates (in an oral culture), the ‘house attack’ on the JLP leader and the counter-attacks. These strategies further alienated the issue voters from the parties.”

It went even further. “The PNP now has a 56 per cent chance of winning and the JLP a 44 per cent chance. The 12 per cent greater chance of the PNP winning is not the same as the PNP receiving 12 per cent more popular votes. With an expected low voter turnout, both parties are relying on hard-core supporters, with the PNP having the edge since the party is more united around its leader. (

The Gleaner, February 21, 2016)

I have not heard a peep from Dr Charles in the media since the JLP’s victory. Here I take liberties with Dion’s great song:

Abraham, Martin and John, “Anybody seen my old friend Charlie, can you tell me where he is gone?” Gleasia Reid is also MIA from the media since Jamaica chose green. Maybe she is busy listening to Eddie Holman’sHey there lonely girl.

I wonder if Roy Forrester, who was a well-known meteorologist at the now-defunct

Jamaica Broadcasting Corporation, was captain of Charles’ team. Though Jamaicans always tuned in, many thought Forrester had a penchant for wrong forecasting, so much that it was generally said that if Forrester forecast sunshine, only a foolish Jamaican would venture out without an umbrella. I suspect political forecasts and weather forecasting might be close relatives.

Professor Herbert Gayle gave us this gem in

The Gleaner of February 12, 2016: “In a study dubbed ‘Why Jamaicans vote: Implications for who wins the 2016 General Election’, Gayle found that, barring a major social shift, the PNP should safely win 36 seats and the JLP 18, with the other nine up for grabs.”

Professor Gayle must have a sweet tooth, because he distributed another candied delicacy last Tuesday: ‘Sinking the eight ball — New Gayle mini-study reveals why PNP suffered in 2016 General Election’. (

The Gleaner, February 29, 2016). Were Gayle’s findings all rodomontade, or more?

Who remembers the old primary school nursery rhyme-like tune that goes something like, “Riddle mi dis, riddle mi dat, guess dis riddle and per-raps not.”

The Johnson and Anderson polls, in relation to party standing, became closer than brothers in February 2016. Maybe the old country ditty, “closer than a brother” was their constant companion?

“The release of yesterday’s poll results is more good news for the PNP, which came out ahead of the JLP in the most recent

Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll. That poll, conducted on February 4, 5, 6 and 7, found the PNP four percentage points ahead of the JLP. Some 33 per cent of those polled by Johnson said they would vote for the PNP, while 29 per cent said they would vote for the JLP.” (The Gleaner, February 23, 2016)

I guess great minds find alike. Some who are cynical — not me, of course — might ask, was ‘herding’ taking place to safeguard reputations? Then again, some folk still believe in “Hey diddle, diddle, the cat and the fiddle”. Some even believe that “…the cow did jump over the moon. The little dog laughed when the dish ran away with the spoon.” Maybe the Earth is flat and not spherical; who knows?

Ramsamooj’s polling of marginal seats made eminent sense. Why waste time polling Kingston Western and St Ann South-Eastern? He reminded us that the world is in fact spherical: The banner headline in this newspaper spoke to a new breeze, ‘T&T pollster finds momentum leaning to JLP — Marginal seats hold key to victory, but any error could spell disaster’. (

Jamaica Observer, February 23, 2016)

The story said, among other things: “The February 25 General Election will come down to 14 marginal seats, which a new poll conducted by Trinidad-based political scientist Derek Ramsamooj shows is leaning towards the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP). According to Ramsamooj, the privately commissioned poll conducted between Nomination Day (February 9) and the past weekend, before the JLP and the governing People’s National Party (PNP) hosted major rallies in Half-Way-Tree and Montego Bay, respectively, found that 51.76 per cent of electors in these marginal seats would vote for the JLP and 48.24 per cent for the PNP. ‘The political momentum at this point is leaning favourably towards the JLP forming the next Government.’”

The JLP won the lion’s share of marginal seats. Today, Andrew Holness is prime minister.

In my piece on February 7, 2016, I pointed out that major pollsters were wrong in their general election forecasts/findings in Canada, Britain, Greece, Portugal, Trinidad and Tobago, and other countries last year. Did a domino effect of ‘mis-forecasts’ hit our shores like a tropical storm? Ramsamooj’s success suggests that local pollsters need to take a fresh look at their methodology.

Come on now, Donnie, Billie, Herbie, Charlie, et al; take some advice from our local music genius, Jimmy Cliff:

“You can get it if you really want;

But you must try, try and try, try and try.

You’ll succeed at last.”

If virtue and knowledge are diffus’d among the people, they will never be enslav’d. This will be their great security.

— Samuel Adams

Garfield Higgins in an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.