The latest news in the race to succeed Portia Simpson Miller is that Peter Bunting has withdrawn his intention to seek the presidency of the People’s National Party (PNP). This means that it might be a one-horse race, starring Dr Peter Phillips, unless someone else comes forward to be nominated for the presidency of the PNP.

Forty years ago, on December 15, 1976, the PNP led by Michael Manley — who was elected to govern on February 29, 1972 — won a second-straight term of office in an election where the main issue was ideology. At the same time, 40 years ago, Councillor Portia Simpson (now Miller) of the Kingston and St Andrew Corporation was elected Member of Parliament for St Andrew South Western.

At the time of the 1976 election, the results were determined about 75 per cent on issues and 25 per cent on mobilisation. Today, it is at least 90 per cent mobilisation. There were exactly 120 candidates in the 1976 election, 60 for the PNP and 60 for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP). There was no ‘third party’ or independent candidates.

The PNP shelved socialism in the 1980s when the Soviet Union was winding down scientific socialism. This meant those trading partners in the hegemony of the former Soviet Union would change their ideologies to fit the pleasure of the new Russia. Jamaica had to do likewise or be left out in the cold.

So, by 1989, the PNP did not mention socialism in its campaign, just as it did not in 1972. Sir Alexander Bustamante had demonised the word ‘socialism’ initially, so the PNP thought it politically wise to adjust to that fact in 1972.

But by 1974, the PNP resurrected its socialist ideology. Apart from the fact that it was possible to trade and get grants, as well as other benefits from socialist countries, it could well be that Michael Manley was ‘feeling his oats’ (popularity) due to his charisma.

Dr D K Duncan stated in a letter responding to a comment I made that the PNP’s decision to revisit democratic socialism had nothing to do with any intention of the JLP to “go left” as posited in the Public Opinion newspaper in September 1972. Duncan stated that he was the national organiser for the PNP in 1972, and no such discussion about forestalling the JLP’s intention ever took place. I believe what Duncan wrote to be the truth.

But I am not aware that either Norman or Michael Manley was in the habit of revealing their inner thoughts with the top PNP functionaries. I have been reliably informed that it was Norman Manley’s style to work with his ‘think tank’ known as the Drumblair Circle before discussing them with the PNP executive. Was Michael Manley the same where this was concerned? I do not know.

The PNP won by a landslide in 1976, having won 47 of the then 60 seats available, with the Edward Seaga-led JLP winning the remaining 13. Some 85 per cent of the electorate voted and the PNP received more than 58 per cent of the vote. This was seen by the PNP as a ‘mandate’ for socialism. In 2016, the turnout in the general election was 47 per cent.

The 1976 General Election was called in the middle of the state of emergency. However, noted public opinion pollster the late Dr Carl Stone wrote later that were it not for election irregularities the PNP would have won 42 seats and not 47. In Stone’s most-respected opinion, the PNP won the election overwhelmingly regardless.

If Wednesday, December 15, 1976 was ‘Palm Sunday’ for the PNP, Thursday, October 30, 1980 was ‘Good Friday’, as the PNP won only nine of the 60 seats when the JLP, led by Edward Seaga, was victorious in gaining 51 seats and over 500,000 votes. One of the lessons of the 1980 result, which was an about-turn from the results of 1976, is that an election and a referendum are not one and the same.

In his book Struggle In The Periphery, Michael Manley compared pages of a Central Intelligence Agency operations manual to what took place in Jamaica prior to the PNP’s massive defeat in 1980. But even if the food shortages and the political violence were deliberate acts of sabotage, it is widely believed that the JLP would have won anyway.

Another lesson is that the construction of a way of life around any form of ideology takes time. People have to be educated and conscientised into a way of life before anyone can declare that a Government has a mandate to carry out fundamental ideological change.

In his budget speech to Parliament in 1977, former JLP Member of Parliament Douglas Vaz stated that socialism had failed. In his budget speech, Michael Manley replied that it was impossible for socialism to have failed when the construction process had just begun.

Michael Manley further said: “That a man can be elected to parliament with so slender a knowledge of socialism is not the most ennobling thing that can be said about our democratic process.” So how could it be stated after the 1976 election that the PNP had received a mandate when Jamaicans had not been fully conscientised as to what socialism is? The only answer here is that “politicians will be politicians”.

Free enterprise was the order of the day throughout the 18 years of the PNP government from 1989 to 2007, and also with the PNP government led by Portia Simpson Miller between 2011 and 2016. My own view is that if it is impractical to implement socialism, the Government should at least encourage co-operative businesses.

Michael Manley stepped down from active politics in 1992 and was replaced by P J Patterson as head of the party. This was when the PNP perfected its election mobilisation techniques. Coupled with the fact that the JLP was divided through 15 of the 18 years in power, as Edward Seaga refused to heed calls to step down, Patterson won three of four elections for the PNP.

So, today Jamaican elections are not won on issues. If Dr Peter Phillips can mobilise the PNP base, should he become PNP president, then he stands a good chance of defeating any rival, no matter how young he or she may be.

ekrubm765@yahoo.com