In calendar year 2017, the Jamaican economy — based purely on its own merits — has its best chance of entering a period of strong, sustained economic growth since the decade immediately following our independence.

The main caveat to this statement is that the international economic outlook is currently the most uncertain since the beginning of the global financial crisis at the end of 2007, while the geopolitical order is the most uncertain since the end of the Second World War.

This is not to imply that we are facing a new global financial crisis, as the economic uncertainty could be either positive (well thought-through, business-friendly legislation) or negative (global trade wars), at least in the short term. The medium term may be a different matter entirely, but more on that anon.

In short, there is unprecedented policy uncertainty as to what the world’s leading economic power, the United States, will do as it begins a new administration. When this is combined with the global return of geopolitics, meaning that investors now have to become experts on, inter alia, European elections (the Dutch, French and German), global trade relations (Brexit and the US/China relationship for starters), and indeed the very post-war world order itself — one thing we can be sure of is the return of volatility.

Wall Street’s so-called “Trump trade”, meaning the sharp rally since the US election, at some point may turn into a “Trump shock”, depending on the choices the new administration makes once it is actually in office. This is not a forecast however on the US economy and particularly stock market, as making one at the beginning of this exceptional year would be akin to financial astrology. We will have more to say on this issue once actual governing begins, and the policy direction becomes clearer.

In Jamaica’s case, it is much easier to work out the general direction of the economy, which is potentially very positive.

The arrival of a young “fresh” leader in the form of Prime Minister Andrew Holness offers the opportunity for long-awaited reforms to finally occur.

Despite the excellent work of former Finance Minister Peter Phillips in finally achieving a balanced budget under extremely trying conditions, and some important legal reforms under then Justice Minister Mark Golding, it did not appear to most informed observers that Jamaica had yet fully embarked on “implementing” the enormously complicated, difficult and intertwined reforms required to enable the Jamaican economy to ultimately reach an annual rate of five per cent economic growth for a sustained period.

Prime Minister Holness is unusually fortunate that two of the most painful issues, the correction of Jamaica’s then very large twin fiscal and current account deficits, were effectively accomplished under the previous administration, with the admittedly enormous assistance of much lower oil prices.

After an initially somewhat slow start due to their immediate focus on the need to finance the new budget last year, an extremely ambitious and potentially transformational policy agenda has now emerged.

While most (virtually all) of this agenda is not new, there seems to be a clear appetite to actually do the key structural reforms required to move the economy, and without the need for an IMF straight-jacket.

The prime minister has concentrated power in his hands institutionally, and unlike many others before him, appears to be willing to hold himself accountable, in the process creating what appears to be Jamaica’s most business-friendly government ever.

This has already been partially recognised by the local stock market, where both the main stock exchange and the junior exchange last year rose a significant multiple of the returns on local fixed income, as I had projected would be the case at the end of 2015.

Despite devaluation, and the late ”surprise” Trump rally, you still did much better in the Jamaican stock market in 2016 than the US stock market.

Last year’s rally is particularly significant as it came after the doubling of the local stock market in 2015, which I had also projected, as recorded in both main newspapers. The last few decades in Jamaica have typically seen a reversion to the mean reflecting the perception or arrival of some macroeconomic crisis.

The truly remarkable thing is that we are likely to see a very similar further rise in our local stock market this year (we will comment in more detail in future articles), which may again significantly outperform the already overvalued US market.

Indeed, it may be time for overseas-based Jamaicans to think about returning to Jamaica, starting perhaps with some careful investing on our local exchange.

Another key positive sign is the recent stability in the Jamaican dollar, which has even seen a slight revaluation.

In my article in November last year “

BOJ not returning to 1980s FX-style auction, I noted that the Jamaican dollar was “no longer overvalued”, and the next step was for it “to no longer appear a one-way bet”. So said, so done.

This is not, of course, to say that it will never devalue again, but simply that we should expect significantly lower levels of devaluation going forward this year, or “relative stability”, more in line with the now small difference between US and Jamaican inflation levels, despite the likely return of “King dollar”, meaning a rise in the value of the US dollar against most major world currencies.

Unusually, despite its relatively high debt, Jamaica is not particularly vulnerable this time around to slowing global capital flows and the likely rise in US interest rates, with a balanced budget, local borrowing capacity and multilateral support.

Assuming no major global shock, and some faster implementation, Jamaica’s GDP growth could be closer to three per cent in 2017 than the near two per cent likely for the last calendar year.

To achieve five per cent economic growth, and become the “Singapore of the Caribbean”, will require a very serious focus on implementation and execution. We will go more into what needs to be done, and assess the likelihood of it happening, in future articles.