Two Saturdays from now, when the Boom Jamaica Derby is scheduled for competition, punters will face the usual Derby challenges including the rate of development of the three-year-olds; last year’s juvenile form against their three-year-old form and, of course, the never ending saga of the battle involving the colts (geldings) and the fairer sex.

Take the case of the top two-year-old of last year, Sotomayor. It is fair to admit that Sotomayor has not lived up to expectations after winning the Jamaica Two-Year-Old Stakes, thereby making his juvenile form much better than his present performances, where his best run was a third in the 2,000 Guineas. Based on present form alone, Sotomayor can only be given an outsider’s shot of winning the Derby.

Other variables though come into play in a race of this nature. Sotomayor is steadily finding his hoofs and seems to be much happier at exercise especially over the last four weeks or so. The Anthony Nunes trained Sotomayor paced nine furlongs in 1:58.3 over last weekend.

With Sotomayor, the variable of distance, maybe a key factor. It is quite obvious from his style of running – always coming from behind – that Sotomayor is going to enjoy the 12-furlongs (2,400m) of the Boom Jamaica Derby, although he was beaten in the Lotto Classic (10-furlongs – 2,000) by three of his main Derby rivals, Henry The Second, Market Force and Fearless Samurai. For the grey colt, it may well be coming at the right time, despite his lack of three-year-old form.

Henry The Second is an intriguing entry. He suffered the heart wrenching fate of being disqualified after winning the Lotto Classic in only his second run for the year. As a two-year-old, Henry The Second definitely showed signs of his now proven ability but was still a maiden entering his three-year-old campaign.

Henry The Second first faced the starter at three as late as April 22, when he demolished moderate rivals by 15 lengths. Then came his ill-fated run in the Lotto Classic and since then has been somewhat subdued on the exercise track. As to distance, Henry The Second having beaten his peers going 10-furlongs (2,000m), there is little doubt that this progeny of Miracle Man will be at home going 12-furlongs. On Monday, he was easily paced over nine furlongs, delivering a time according to the official clockers of 1:34.1 for his last seven furlongs.

Market Force, who ascended to the winners’ rostrum after the disqualification of Henry The Second in the Lotto Classic is one Boom Jamaica Derby entrant who is sparingly raced, only four times, once as a two-year-old in November 2016. He returned to the track in March of 2017 and demonstrated his class beating seasoned age groupers in a non-winners of two contest. Then came the 2,000 Guineas (one mile – 1,600m) and a rather unlucky race for him being the victim of a poor ride when losing to Fearless Samurai, who Market Force returned to beat in the longer Lotto Classic. Lightly raced, on the improve, with the Derby distance not posing a threat, Market Force is indeed a formidable Derby contender.

Fearless Samurai is the leading stakes earner for 2017 and was the first of his crop to win at the Open Allowance level. Fearless Samurai is going to have difficulties getting 12-furlongs but has the class, another massive variable in an Derby analysis.

The 2017 Boom Jamaica Derby is quite an open race with several horses having a chance of winning. Naturally, racing fans will apply their own methods of coming up with the winner, suffice it to say that there is no open and cut favourite, even with just nine days to go.