KINGSTON, Jamaica — The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) has downgraded projections for growth of up to three per cent for the fiscal year 2017/2018, after reporting that the main growth drivers — the mining and quarrying industries — had slipped 8.6 per cent in its performance for the quarter ending September 2017.

In August, the PIOJ had predicted a strengthening in the pace of growth, resulting in a fiscal year outturn within the range of two to three per cent, driven by the resumption of productive activity at the Alpart alumina plant. Growth from the mining and quarrying industries was forecasted to reach 20 per cent for the fiscal year 2017/18.

But earlier today, the PIOJ reported that within the goods producing industry, real value added for the agriculture, forestry and fishing industry was estimated to be flat, while there was a contraction of 8.6 per cent in the mining and quarrying industries. Growth for the fiscal year 2017/18 now stands in the region of 1.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent.

“The downward revision mainly reflects the impact of the shock to agriculture, as well as the relatively later start up of the Alpart refinery,” PIOJ Director James Stewart said in responding to questions from OBSERVER ONLINE.

In addition to the late start up of the refinery, PIOJ reported lower production of alumina, which outweighed increases in the production of crude bauxite. Alumina production decreased by 11.4 per cent and reflected lower production at Jamalco, down 13.3 per cent and Windalco, down 7.6 per cent.

“This was caused by technical problems at both plants.There was a decrease of 5.7 percentage points in the average capacity utilisation rate to 44.3 per cent. This increase in crude bauxite production of 9.5 per cent was reflected in a higher bauxite capacity utilisation rate by 7.1 percentage points to 67.1 per cent,” Director General Wayne Henry said.

Previously, the PIOJ anticipated as much as 40 per cent outturn for mining and quarrying industries.

Despite the revision in growth potential for the fiscal year, the PIOJ reported growth of 0.9 per cent for the quarter July to September 2017 relative to the corresponding period of 2016.

Karena Bennett