It’s Christmastime and, most appropriately, wishes for a holy, joyous, merry or peaceful Christmas season are being shared among family, friends, associates, and acquaintances near and far. The greetings from the Meteorological Service go a lot deeper than that, however, because there are a few more seasons to appreciate at this time of year, from our perspective, and a lot more to wish for you as we go forward.

Hurricane season

We have daringly and fortuitously manoeuvred our way through a treacherous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season that saw more loss of life, destruction of property, desolation in familiar islands, and emotional trauma for thousands. Now it is over, but the past six months (and the month of April that produced preseason Tropical Storm Arlene) turned out a total of 17 named storms, ending with Rina that dissipated on November 9. Of these systems, the 10 that formed between August 6 and October 15 all became hurricanes, with six (Harvey, Irma, Jose, Lee, Maria, and Ophelia) becoming major hurricanes, surpassing the season’s expectations.

Despite the well above average activity this year, the unprecedented US flooding in Texas from Hurricane Harvey, the double tragedy of Irma and Maria to the north-eastern Caribbean, and the frequency of Category 5 hurricanes at the peak of the season in August/September, Jamaica remained unscathed. That sounds like a good reason to be thankful at this time of the year when we recall the birth of the Saviour of the world. Ironically, there was no El Niño phenomenon this year, named after this Christ child, that would have suppressed hurricane activity.

Dry season

Although December signifies the end of the hurricane season, it also marks the traditional start of the primary dry season that Jamaica experiences each year. At this time of year, we expect rainfall episodes and amounts to be falling to their lowest levels through to March before the hopes of increase are again realised. Global dynamical models are projecting that, at least for the next couple of months, rainfall amounts will trend towards being above-normal for the Caribbean region. For some this will bring relief from what has been a generally wet year for us with reports of soil saturation and so many incidents of flooding.

On the local scene, the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) being utilised by the Meteorological Service suggests an equal chance of below- and above-normal rainfall generally, with a slightly greater chance of it being a normal dry season. With fingers crossed and hands clasped, we are not yet concerned, therefore, about a developing drought, but still urge water conservation due to the weak signals of the CPT. Closer analysis shows the likelihood of the county of Cornwall receiving the lowest amounts of rainfall over the period, while Middlesex indicates the best chance of wetness.

Frontal season

At this time of the year we also look forward to the changes that come with moving from our regular routine of tropical waves to experiences of occasional cold and stationary fronts. These represent the boundaries between warm masses of air and their cooler counterparts from the north that provide the welcome ‘Christmas breeze’. Already we have had some impact from cold fronts; sometimes bringing rain and sometimes cooler temperatures that are often well appreciated.

Unfortunately, the global outlook is for temperatures to be higher than normal through these traditionally cooler months of the year. This may be symptomatic of the bigger picture of a world with rising temperatures, because the local CPT is also projecting a 50 per cent chance of temperatures rising above the norm over the next two to three months, with a 30 per cent chance of them being normal, and 20 per cent likelihood that we will see cooler days.

That said, the director and staff of your Met Office pass on season’s greetings with wishes that you all will experience thankfulness, peace, joy and continued blessings as we journey into the new year together. Thanks for your expressions of support and confidence in our efforts throughout 2017.

Evan G Thompson is the director of the Meteorological Service. Send comments to the Observer or e.thompson@metservice.gov.jm.